We Must Prepare for ‘Trump Administration 2.0’ from Every Angle

Trump vs. Biden rematch certain after four years

We must create a task force like Canada to preemptively prepare for risks.

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary by a wide margin, solidifying his position as the dominant candidate he has held since his party’s primaries began. After four years, the possibility of a rematch between President Joe Biden and Trump is certain.

There are still many variables in the nine months remaining until the presidential election, but, at least in the current atmosphere, the media are talking about the possibility that Trump will be reelected because he is leading in numerous opinion polls. There is already criticism about key positions in a second Trump administration. For instance, former White House National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien is being considered for secretary of state and former U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer, who designed a protectionist trade policy during Trump’s term, is slated for a powerful trade position. The two are reportedly planning “Trump administration 2.0.” Trump’s return is expected to have a megaton impact not only in the U.S. but also in global politics, including on the U.S.-China competition for supremacy. And given the friendship between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump’s close relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump’s reelection could have a huge influence on the Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war.

Leading figures in Europe are urging countries to take steps, cautioning that if Trump takes office, pressure on NATO members to increase defense spending could mount. The Canadian government has taken action to create a response force called “Team Canada” that would include its ministers of industry and trade, and the Canadian ambassador to the United States. In Japan, there is news that Vice President Taro Aso of the Liberal Democratic Party will serve as a contact with candidate Trump, who is a golf enthusiast.

South Korea, which is influenced by the U.S. more than anyone else, must prepare more thoroughly for the possibility of Trump’s reelection. Trump talked about withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea during his term, and there has been excessive pressure to raise the U.S. defense cost contribution fivefold. That issue ended with no deal in Hanoi during the first U.S.-North Korea summit when Trump was in office. As this year begins, the current administration is growing more vigilant about North Korea’s threatening comments about war, but people are worried that, in a second term, Trump would tolerate North Korea’s nuclearization and engage in disarmament talks.

Trump has declared that if reelected, he will scrap the Inflation Reduction Act, and people are worried it will do damage to Korean business. Just as the financial markets say not to put all your eggs in one basket, we need astute diplomacy that will diversify risk ahead of a U.S. presidential election that faces many variables. We must prepare for every scenario to minimize the risk to our national interest not only if Biden is reelected but also if Trump wins a second term. The president’s office and the second diplomatic and security team should form a task force like Canada that would engage in a flexible kind of diplomacy with the United States that will prioritize national interests.