A World in Chaos Needs Resolve

The world has become increasingly chaotic in recent years, and the fluctuations will only increase in the Year of the Dragon. Political and economic turmoil will be difficult to settle. In the face of such a chaotic world, we must be cautious, respond accordingly, and not add to the chaos, which will return to cause personal misfortune. The elections around the globe are a major factor contributing to the agitation.

This year, at least 48 countries are holding general elections. The election calendar of countries worldwide is full, from the beginning of the year to the end. More than half the world’s population will be involved in an election, making this the most elections worldwide in 30 years. Among those holding elections are countries with great geopolitical influence, such as the U.S., India, the U.K., Japan and Russia.

Taiwan has just finished its general election, and the results will affect the geopolitical situation. While on the surface the status quo appears to remain unchanged, the situation may cause huge geopolitical changes in the future.

The surge of elections this year will not only not stop the continuation of the current situation, but it will increase the power of strong, authoritarian leaders. This, in turn, will enhance international friction and conflict, which will increase turbulence throughout the world.

India’s election is coming soon. In recent years, India’s economy has grown quickly, skyrocketing due to the dividends spilled over from the tense U.S.-China relationship. Although India calls itself a democratic nation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a religious nationalist who seemingly will be reelected for a fifth term. Along with its strong economic development, India’s internal religious conflicts are intensifying, and its relationships with Pakistan and China will become increasingly tense. Furthermore, India’s role as a pawn used by the U.S. to counter China will become increasingly apparent.

The election that is drawing the most attention is coming up at the end of the year — the U.S. presidential election. Donald Trump, who has made a strong return to the field, won overwhelmingly in the first two Republican primaries, no one within the party even coming close. Unless he is stopped by the 91 lawsuits in which he is involved, his road to the nomination and even to winning the election will be clear. Current President Joe Biden, who is aged and falling in popularity, unfortunately will have a difficult time obstructing Trump’s path back to the White House.

Trump’s return to power would stir up huge waves. Domestic ideological conflict and political party confrontation would intensify. There would be no peace in international political and economic order and between militaries. Trade protectionism would inevitably increase. The conflict between the U.S. and its allies and China would rise. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine would tilt in Russia’s favor, and the conflict between Israel and Hamas would boost Israel’s arrogance. The deteriorating relationship between the U.S. and China would add fuel to the flames.

At the end of the year, two of America’s allies, Japan and the U.K., will hold elections that may change the ruling party in the U.K. and the prime minister in Japan. The subsequent policy changes that would follow these two changes would be large, and their impact would be affected by the outcome of the U.S. election.

The inversion of the global economic order would also intensify. America would continue to engage in de-risking by reshaping global supply chain policy. The idea of de-risking is rampant within major national policy and multinational corporations’ business strategies. Global manufacturing is developing in the direction of diversification and regionalization. Near- and friendly-shore regional manufacturing will invariably increase, greatly impacting the reorganization of global supply chains. U.S. economic trends concern the entire world. Will its economy have a soft landing, or will it head into a recession? While opinions on this differ, the EU is almost certainly heading into a recession. Weak fiscal policies and austere monetary policies have been unable to boost the slumping economy. As soon as energy prices begin to soar, the European economy will be greatly impacted.

China’s economy is still hovering at a low point. The deterioration of the real estate market has yet to improve, and consumer consumption is low. Exports have decreased, and regional governments are having financial difficulties. Strong stimulus measures have been unable to revive the economy, causing worry as to whether an uncontrollable economic crisis will erupt.

The recent years of peace in the world are over, and changes in the upcoming year are bound to intensify. At the center of geopolitical conflicts, Taiwan must keenly watch the changes in the world with caution. Not only should it not add to the chaos, but it should stay away from harm and even strive to be a stabilizing force in the world. Resolve is vital and is the way to handle oneself. It is also the best strength to contribute to the world.