Peace for the Middle East: Biden Has Already Been Snubbed Many Times

U.S. President Joe Biden is taking a large risk with his proposal for a cease-fire in Gaza. Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed, but will he stick to it? The question is, who will be the one to make Hamas back down?

The American president is putting forward a proposal on how to end the war in Gaza and free the hostages. The Israeli government agrees and Hamas says its stance on a cease-fire is “positive.”

That was a few days ago, but no plan has taken effect. Optimists say have patience, as though when an American president publicly puts forward such a far-reaching proposal, acceptance is assured, both from Benjamin Netanyahu and from the Hamas leadership.

No Interest in a Cease-fire

Pessimists may argue that Joe Biden has been snubbed by Netanyahu so often that he will be left empty-handed once again. Neither the Israeli prime minister nor Yahya Sinwar, the military leader of Hamas, show even the slightest interest in ending the war or even stopping for a cease-fire.

For this region, so accustomed to orgies of blood, death, terror and violence, a cease-fire would be a blessing. The conditions for peace have already been met, with Saudi Arabia wanting peace with Israel. Their common enemy, Iran, is preoccupied with itself after the death of its president in a helicopter crash, so a possible expansion of the war seems unlikely.

There is also no doubt that Hamas has been decidedly weakened; otherwise, their widely considered political leader Ismail Haniyeh, in exile in Qatar, wouldn’t be campaigning for a permanent cease-fire. The competition with the military wing in the Gaza Strip will decide whether Hamas accepts, delays or rejects the proposal.

The Weakness in the American Plan

The main Israeli war goal is to completely liquidate Hamas. We can wish for this, but on closer inspection, it is unrealistic. A more pragmatic goal would be to weaken Hamas in the long term, so that its rule over 2 million inhabitants of the Mediterranean coastal strip becomes impossible.

But who would take control of the government after that? Herein lies the weakness in the American plan, as this crucial question is left unanswered.

The strength of the Biden plan is that the hostages will be freed as soon as the Israeli army begins to withdraw from Gaza. No one knows exactly how many people are still alive there. Supposedly, there are still 134 people being held by Hamas. Their fate has been forgotten due to talks of a large invasion in the south and by the actions of the Netanyahu government, even though demonstrators in Tel Aviv and other cities remind us of the hostages nearly every day with growing desperation.

Islamist Groups in the Asymmetric War

The Middle East has long known only one direction: downward. The Israeli army is too strong for a major war like the ones in 1967 or 1973. Some of the enemies of that time made peace, for example Jordan and Egypt. But today’s enemies prefer an asymmetrical war, such as the attack by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, Hezbollah with its rocket attacks, and the Houthi rebels from Yemen with their attacks on global shipping trade.

Israel can protect itself from such attacks only by liquidating its enemies. That is the logic. As soon as Hamas is eliminated, then Hezbollah will be next; it rules Lebanon in the same way as Hamas rules Gaza. These asymmetrical wars would end only through surrender, although it is conceivable that Hamas could give up. Hezbollah, however, has a larger country in its stranglehold and has Iran to protect it, with bastions established in neighboring Syria and Iraq.

Netanyahu Needs the War To Stay in Power

Segments of the coalition government in Israel reject any compromise. As a warning, they say the coalition will end if Netanyahu goes along with the American president. If Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich had his way, Rafah in the south of Gaza would be completely destroyed. Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir posted on X about the the U.S. president’s proposal by saying, “Hamas loves Biden.” The idea of repelling 2 million Gazan civilians and replacing them with Israeli settlers has been circulating among the circles of power — along the lines of the occupation of the West Bank (which is illegal under international law).

Netanyahu is the ultimate power politician. His country is synonymous with his own interests. If the war ends, his power ends. For Israel, this could well be liberation. A new beginning with Minister of Defense Yoav Galant, is conceivable. We can only wish the hostages’ nightmare will soon be over and that they will be able to return to civilian life.

Biden’s initiative demonstrates courage, skill and a willingness to take risks in the Middle East. Having such a president in the White House is good for America and the rest of the world.