Kamala Harris, with No Margin for Error

It is astonishing that, two weeks out from the presidential election, Donald Trump continues to propagate conspiracy theories and antidemocratic pronouncements with no movement in the polls in Kamala Harris’ favor. This appears, for now, to refute the traditional analysis by which, in order to win, Trump must reach out to, and appease, centrist voters. He refused last week to commit to respecting a peaceful transition of power, he has peddled conspiracy theories by which the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection was staged by the federal government, and labeled his rivals as “enemies from within,” against which the U.S. military could be mobilized. His anti-immigrant discourse, polluted by white supremacy, is dangerously reminiscent of that of the Ku Klux Klan. However much Harris hammers home the threat he represents to America’s faltering democracy, and his former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has called him a “fascist to the core,” the polls show a race where the gaps are measured by fractions of percentage points. More amused than worried, a large segment of voters under Trump’s spell, including among Blacks and Hispanics, believe that those offended by his ravings are taking the former president too seriously. Taken seriously, however, he must be.

This presidential election will come down to a few tens of thousands of votes in seven key states, perhaps even a few counties, which means the overall choice will depend on that of a handful of voters. It is understood that the Electoral College system heightens this crisis of representation. At the same time, new electoral dynamics are emerging, and traditional voting blocs are fracturing. These fractures are particularly notable, as revealed in a recent New York Times poll, within the Black and Hispanic communities, pillars of Harris’ electoral coalition, where a large proportion of male voters tend to lean toward Trump, sticking to his masculinist bible as well as being disillusioned on with the Democrats they rightly feel take them for granted.

If overall support for the Democrats from these two minority groups remains massive, the erosion is perceptible, particularly among Latinos. What is striking, according to the poll, is that 45% of them approve of Trump’s plan to expel huge numbers of undocumented immigrants, without whom the nation’s economy would not function. Another highlight: The significance of issues of racism and discrimination, though very real, tends to fade in those communities where households are faced with the very real challenges of making ends meet. Now, on economic matters, Trump, the shrewd populist, is favored among the electorate as a whole. There are two reasons for this: first, the persistent myth of Republican superiority on the issue; second, widespread public opinion that Democrats are less the party of the average American with no higher education, who make up 65% of the adult population, than that of the urban elite insensitive to widening inequalities.

With the election of Barack Obama, the Democrats believed that the growing ethno-cultural diversity of the U.S. would automatically establish their political dominance. The emergence of Trump has forced them to acknowledge their error to such an extent that, to compensate, Harris is hastily working to gather support within the white working class of key Rust Belt states, starting with Pennsylvania.

Conversely, the white female electorate, the majority of whom typically vote Republican, is likewise evolving. Some 53% of them voted for Trump in 2020. But they are now younger and tilting toward the left, a dynamic where abortion rights are certainly playing a major role. This begs the question: Will 2024 be the year when white female voters, who make up nearly 40% of the overall electorate, overwhelmingly back Democrats the way women of color do?

Polls inevitably reflect a dyslexic reading of the electorate that only the presidential and legislative elections on Nov. 5 will make clear. However, many see in the present context new political configurations capable of transforming the two major parties. Taken further, one could argue that the Republican and Democratic parties, both of which suffer from sharp internal tensions, are heading beneficially toward an implosion — beneficially, given that the current two-party system that has framed and constrained political offerings for 175 years is suffocating American democracy.