This Could Decide the Election

Kamala Harris is breaking records in fundraising, Donald Trump is relying on riots, but an old law could determine who next enters the White House.

When the U.S. votes, the whole world watches in fascination. This country is still unparalleled as a world power on which the fates of Ukraine and Israel hang in the balance. Naturally, Europe doesn’t want to lose its protector, either.

Culturally, the U.S. already has hegemonic influence. Approximately 100,000 Chinese students study at elite universities on the East and West coasts. Nobel Prizes in Natural Science are practically an American monopoly. Huge digital corporations are a symbol of technological superiority, held by that country since the Second World War.

Even in the most remote Nepalese villages, tourists can still find Coca-Cola. Nike sports shoes are a cult classic, and NBA basketball games are shown on Asian TV networks, as are NFL football games. The list goes on and on.

Donald Trump and the Problem with His Ex-Chief of Staff

On Nov. 5, 240 million Americans will choose their 47th President.* From an European perspective, it’s a giant democracy; from a Chinese perspective, it’s a puppet show. In either case, the U.S. has lost its function as a role model for economically and politically emerging countries. There were too many double standards in the projection of power in different parts of the world and, and worse yet, there were many poor decisions: for example, since Sept. 11, 2001, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and Egypt.

What matters this time is obvious. There is Donald Trump, who loves dictators and would like to become one himself. Anyone who would seriously want to use the military against his domestic foes and just as seriously suggest that his supporters would only have to go to the polls once more, so that he could “bring order” to the system, must also allow himself to be called a fascist. This ultimate accusation comes from General John F. Kelly, who was Trump’s chief of staff during his first term in office. In anger, the general accused him of wanting generals like those who surrounded Adolf Hitler.

Naturally Trump didn’t defend himself against being stigmatized as a fascist, but declared General Kelly to be a degenerate and an idiot. This is his rule: Never use facts in an argument; instead, go fully on the offensive, with insults and abuse as a show of power. That’s why half of the U.S. loves him — amazing, but true.

Kamala Harris’s Reason for Voting for Her Is Trump

Kamala Harris gratefully picked up on Kelly’s characterization. She was at her best when she described Trump as astonishing, rather than weird. Plus, she broke all records in fundraising a billion dollars in a short space of time. In the final weeks of the election campaign, she limited herself to being alarmed about the impending end of democracy if Trump were to win. So Trump is her argument for voting for her.

This places at the center the man who cannot stand not being at the center. “It’s me or the downfall of the U.S.” That’s Trump’s message. “Me or the end of the U.S.” is also Harris’ message.

Who Decides the Election?

Pollsters are puzzling now over who or what will decide the election. Illegal immigration across the Mexican border? Perhaps. Abortion? Possibly. Ukraine? Israel and the Palestinians? Or all of them together, somehow?

Who might matter: women; African Americans; Latinos; ultra- rich Americans, such as Elon Musk; or Wall Street? Or all of them together?

The Logic of Presidential Change

From a bird’s eye perspective, another law of series stands out: There is a pattern in the succession of American presidents over the decades. Nothing especially elaborate, but that is why it’s convincing.

The law goes as follows: The next president must be diametrically different from the incumbent. The elderly General Dwight D. Eisenhower was followed by the young John F. Kennedy in 1961. The diabolical Richard Nixon was followed by the pious Jimmy Carter in 1977. He was followed in 1981 by the charismatic, easy-going Ronald Reagan, with his unmistakable flair for paradigm shifts.

After George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton entered the White House in 1993, a virtuoso in the exercise of power and with hands-free morality. After George W. Bush, simple and surrounded by powerful cynics, came Barack Obama in 2007 — charismatic, scandal-free and overcautious. Obama made way in 2016 for Trump, the truly absolute white antidote to the first Black president.

Harris Would Have To Repeal the Law

Because I had noticed this law. I wrote an article for “Spiegel Online” in May 2016, in which I proclaimed Trump to be the victor six months before the election. And this time?

Yes, Trump is the biggest contrast to Joe Biden, the experienced, guileless president. And Harris, like Hillary Clinton eight years ago, would be an extension of the incumbent, but with subtle changes that do not matter.

If the law of the series is to be met, then Trump will get a second term in office, changing the U.S. to his will and ideas — as a dictator, as a fascist.

That law would have to be repealed for Harris to enter the White House, as the first woman president to do so.

*Editor’s Note: The 2024 presidential election was held, with Trump emerging as the incumbent.