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Posted on January 24, 2012.
To the West, it’s not clear whether Iran is really about to close the Strait of Hormuz. To Tehran, it’s not clear whether the United States is going to respond with force. The situation could spiral into a dangerous escalation if this continues.
Stories of espionage and assassination are always more fascinating than those about a faraway sea-lane and the seemingly dry data of oil trading. However, the reason for a potential war between the U.S. and Iran is not hiding in the debris of the blown-up car of the scientist from the Natanz nuclear facility. The assassination, for all its dramatic descriptions in the Israeli and world media, was only the result of a small detonator fixed to a huge explosive charge.
It has contributed to the crisis with Iran, but the real story is not in the intelligence plots, but rather in each country’s strategic steps. In the last few weeks, the real aggravation has been over the blue, deep waters of Hormuz. It is the oxygen pipe for the global economy.
This is where 17 million barrels of oil pass through each day – that’s 20 percent of the world’s oil consumption and 40 percent of the oil transported by sea. A more vital strategic nexus for global energy security doesn’t exist, and this very spot is being severely threatened.
The Regime Is Choking
It started out small. A legislator in the Iranian parliament suggested blocking the strait as a test. The West mocked this. At first, it looked like a slip of the tongue or the absurd words of a populist junior governmental official. To draw an analogy with our country, it would be like one of the empty bluffs of Gilad Erdan or Faina Kirshenbaum, uttered just to gain votes. Nevertheless, the global markets responded immediately and violently. Oil tariffs jumped.
It does not matter much whether Tehran considered the idea as a way of bluffing or adopted it in light of how the markets behaved. What does matter is that within a short time, the Islamic Republic embraced a new approach to handling the nuclear crisis. A quote of one parliamentarian has turned into a mantra, perhaps even a strategy: On Dec. 27, Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi said, “If sanctions are adopted against Iranian oil, not a drop of oil will pass through the Strait of Hormuz.” On Dec. 28, Iran’s Navy chief announced, “Iran has total control over the strategic water way. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is very easy [for Iranian naval forces].”
Many events are taking place simultaneously. The sanctions employed by the United States and European Union have drained Iran’s economy: The Iranian currency has weakened over the past months by 40 percent; people stand in long queues at the banks, looking to withdraw their money. The true unemployment, behind the lies of the regime, stands at 20 percent or more; prices in the country are steadily soaring, and the currency in use is the American dollar, ironically enough.
Yesterday, in another act of panic, the government prohibited the use of foreign currency throughout Iran. In concert, international institutions and companies are severing their ties to their Iranian counterparts, both public and private.
The Americans are acting with unprecedented energy and thoroughness. They sent Treasury Secretary Geithner to Japan and a special envoy to South Korea, convincing country after country to help strangle the Iranians. They have succeeded. The fear of getting on America’s blacklist produces an effective trade ban on the Iranians.
The Americans Have Grown Anxious
The regime is suffocating and, in the meantime, it is experiencing a campaign of sabotage and assassinations that undermines the fundamental sense of security within the republic. At the same time, experts see an increasing chance of an Israeli attack or of a strengthening of sanctions. This rapid deterioration is happening even before the Europeans are to gather the next week in order to solemnly announce the oil embargo. Since the Islamic revolution, Iran has not been more isolated, and the regime has not been under such a grave threat. The game currently involves the highest stakes possible.
The idea of shutting the Strait of Hormuz initially emerged a few weeks ago. The concept was simple: Should Iran be unable to sell oil, then no one will get oil. If Iran is not allowed to sell, it will dispatch its fleet and prevent the sale of oil from the Gulf Emirates, its arch-rivals. This would mean economic hysteria in the form of oil prices skyrocketing and the global economy stagnating. Except for the nuclear bomb, this, apparently, is the greatest peril that Iran may pose to world peace.
In a certain sense, it is a brilliant trick. Iran no longer faces the choice of stopping nuclear development or facing sanctions; the new paradigm is sanctions versus disrupting the Strait of Hormuz. “Iran is ready for any scenario including sanctions on its oil, and it will use its own ways to confront the threats,” Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larjiani calmly noted yesterday. Suddenly, he became Ehud Barak, the Israeli defense minister.
The American feedback was fast: The Fifth Fleet gave notice, in a remarkable manner, that it “won’t tolerate” any disruption of sea navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. On Jan. 2, the Iranian navy launched an extensive drill in the Persian Gulf and the strait, while Hossein Salami, a senior commander in the Revolutionary Guard, treated the American warnings dismissively. This epidemic of intimidation escalated gradually, as it has continued to do in recent days.
Just yesterday, three high-ranking Iranian officials spoke out on the subject of the strait closure. “Iran would use any tools to defend its national interests … ” remarked a military adviser to the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Last weekend, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton loudly declared a blockade of the straits to be a “red line.” And on Friday, the British prime minister made it plain that “the whole world would come together” and won’t let the strait stay closed. In the middle of the past week, the United States sent a letter to the Iranians, primarily addressing the supreme leader.
To clarify the degree of its urgency and to make sure that it was received, it was mailed via three channels: through the U.N., through the president of Iraq and through the Swiss Embassy in Tehran, which represents American interests. The letter, in all likelihood, was ultimately threatening, making it clear to the Iranians that President Barack Obama’s intention is not to be mistaken: Should the strait be shut down, there will be a war.
The Americans Don’t Know If the Iranians Get Them
The Americans are very eager to explain this over and over again to the Iranians, even if they need to deliver three letters with three messengers and parade Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and Clinton in front of the media repeatedly. The reason is simple and very frightening. The Americans do not understand whether the Iranians understand them. The key words here are “credible threat.”
It is unclear to the West whether the Iranians might indeed block the strait or are merely bluffing. To Iran, it is unclear whether America is serious. In fact, we have no clue what is clear to them and what is not. This is precisely how miscalculation is created. This is how unexpected escalation is begot: a misinterpretation leading to a backlash followed by further escalation — and finally by a war.
Into this scenario, there suddenly barged the assassination in Tehran and the perpetual concern about an Israeli strike uncoordinated with Washington. The Americans, judging by their reactions, got stressed. They did something extremely rare: They stressed to the Iranians that they weren’t the hit men. Panetta even admonished, “The United States was not involved in that kind of effort. That’s not what the United States does.” In parallel with these comments, the joint exercise for Israel and the United States was cancelled and the level of security of the U.S. army bases in the Persian Gulf was raised.
Obama had a conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and messages have been sent — these were meant for Iranian ears as well — stating that the White House does not support a unilateral air assault by Israel. Usually, this is where we find reassurance that the messages have been received and the tension abated. I can’t write this because that hasn’t happened yet. But there is a new elephant in the room, and it is called Strait of Hormuz. It disturbs the planet at the moment, probably more so than the Iranian bomb. Maybe not an elephant but a goat. An Iranian goat.
Note: The author is the foreign news editor of [Israeli] Channel 10.