If the US Wishes To Join Hands with Brazil against China, It Will Be Disappointed

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 2 January 2019
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Daniel Chow. Edited by Elizabeth Cosgriff.
The new Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, in his inauguration speech on Jan. 1 said that he wanted Brazil to be “liberated from socialism and political correctness,” receiving praise from President Donald Trump. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended Bolsonaro’s swearing-in ceremony, with U.S. media reporting that Pompeo hopes to discuss China’s trade practices with Brazil, roping in Brazil to oppose China together.

Bolsonaro has been grouped into the “far-right” camp by some Western media. With a nickname of “Trump of Brazil,” a pro-U.S. and anti-Latin American-leftist stance is his political trademark. He has also criticized China for “buying up Brazil” during his election campaign, but later publicly praised China as Brazil’s “outstanding partner.”

Due to his values, Bolsonaro will probably push for a certain degree of diplomatic adjustment, possibly in favor of recovering and enhancing U.S. influence in South America. This, however, is not necessarily a part of Washington’s wishes for its zero-sum game in Latin America with Beijing.

China has been Brazil’s largest trade partner since 2009 and is the largest buyer of Brazilian soybean and minerals. This has been seen by outsiders as potentially restricting Bolsonaro’s room to maneuver in adjusting Sino-Brazilian relations, especially when his primary mission is to rejuvenate the flailing Brazilian economy.

China is not just an important economic partner of Latin America, but has also enriched the diplomatic options in this region; objectively, it has caused Washington to attach importance to South American countries, with the result that these countries are in a more favorable position when developing relationships with the U.S. and other major countries. Weakening its relationship with China is completely against Brazil’s interests.

From now on whether South American countries go to the left or the right, the trend of increasing diplomatic independence will not change. Being able to simultaneously develop relations on an equal footing with the U.S., China and other non-South American major countries is no doubt much more attractive than being the traditional “backyard” of the U.S.

When China is the country with which Brazil has the largest trade surplus and has also never remarked upon or criticized Brazil’s actions, Washington’s desire to drag Brazil into opposing “unfair trade from China” and being politically cautious of China is akin to squeezing water from a dry towel.

A fundamental sticking point is that geopolitics is no longer the overwhelming clue to international relations in the 21st century; economic interests are carrying ever-increasing weight in international relations in the new century. The probability of war breaking out is diminishing, the security risks to the various countries have correspondingly decreased and ideological conflicts are increasingly sterile. The main pressure on governments has focused on the sphere of people’s livelihoods, greatly shifting the attention of countries in the field of diplomacy.

A large trading nation such as China is receiving more and more warm welcomes, such that even U.S. allies are no longer willing to take sides when the U.S. and China have conflicts. In the past the U.S. could guarantee the safety of its allies and simultaneously support them economically. Nowadays the former bond, for some countries at least, is rusting away, and the latter bond has degenerated, with Washington wishing to use it as a transfusion tube for it to reap profits instead.

For Latin American countries, China really has nothing for them to defend against and they have full sovereignty in how to develop relations with China. In fact, it is the U.S. that they are unable to be completely reassured about. How to prevent relations with the U.S. from damaging their own sovereignty has constantly been a difficult balancing act for South American countries.

We have full confidence in the maintenance of good relations between China and Brazil and the continued expansion of economic cooperation. This is because it is not just China’s wish, but is in the basic interest of Brazil. Bolsonaro is the Brazilian president and national interests will surely guide his formulation of diplomatic policies. Until now virtually no one, including those who dislike China, has been able to find a reason for the new Brazilian president to alienate China.

South American politics have continuously swayed between left and right and these changes are much more related to U.S. interests then they are to China’s. China is a friend and partner of South American countries, without discriminating between leftists and rightists. The Chinese like Brazil and most Chinese do not even know what the left and the right in Brazil signify.




巴西新总统博索纳罗于1月1日在就职演说中表示要让巴西“摆脱社会主义和政治正确”,受到特朗普总统的称赞。蓬佩奥国务卿参加了博索纳罗的就职仪式,有美国媒体报道称,蓬佩奥希望与博索纳罗讨论中国的贸易行为,拉拢巴西一同对抗中国。

  博索纳罗被一些西方媒体归入“极右翼”阵营,有“巴西特朗普”之称,亲美和反对拉美左翼都是他的政治标签。此外他在竞选期间批评过中国正在“买下巴西”,但后来他又公开赞扬中国是巴西“杰出的伙伴”。

  由于价值观的原因,博索纳罗应会推动巴西一定的外交调整,这可能会对美国恢复、加强在南美的影响力有利。但这未必是华盛顿希望的其与北京在拉美零和游戏的一部分。

  中国从2009年开始就是巴西的第一大贸易伙伴,是巴西大豆和矿产的最大买家,这被外界普遍认为会限制博索纳罗调整巴中关系的空间,特别是当他的首要任务是振兴巴西低迷经济的时候。

  中国不仅是南美的重要经济伙伴,也帮助丰富了这一地区的外交选项,客观上带动了华盛顿对南美国家的重视,从而使这些国家在与美和其他大国发展关系时处于更有利的位置。削弱同中国的关系对巴西而言有百害而无一利。

  今后南美国家无论向左还是向右,增加外交独立性的趋势不会变。能够同时与美国和中国等南美洲之外的大国发展平等关系,比它们做美国传统意义上的“后院”无疑有吸引力得多。

  当中国是巴西第一大贸易顺差来源国、且从不对巴西指手画脚时,华盛顿想拉巴西一起对抗“来自中国的不公平贸易”,以及在政治上警惕中国,这无异于想从一条干毛巾中拧出水来。

  一个根本的尴尬是,地缘政治不再是21世纪国际关系的压倒性线索,经济利益在新世纪的国际关系中占据了越来越大的权重。爆发新战争的可能性在减少,各国的安全风险在相应降低,意识形态纷争也逐渐乏味,政府的主要压力集中到了民生领域,这大大改变了各国在外交领域的注意力。

  中国这样的贸易大国受到越来越多的实际欢迎,连美国的盟友也不再愿意在中美发生摩擦时选边站了。过去美国可以保护盟国的安全,并且同时在经济上支持盟国,现在前一条纽带至少对部分国家来说在生锈,后一条纽带则变质了,华盛顿希望把它变成为自己倒吸利益的输血管。

  对南美国家来说,中国实在没什么可防备的,它们拥有如何发展对华关系的充分主权。倒是对美国它们很难做到彻底放心,如何不让与美国的关系损害自己的国家主权,是南美国家长期面对的一道平衡难题。

  我们对中巴两国保持良好的关系并且继续扩大经贸合作有着充足的信心。因为这不仅是中国的愿望,更是巴西根本利益之所在。博索纳罗是巴西总统,国家利益必将主导他对外交政策的制定,迄今为止几乎没有人、包括那些不喜欢中国的人能够找出这位巴西新总统疏远中国的理由。

  南美政治不断在左右之间变色,这种变色与美国的利害关系远高于与中国的利害关系。中国是南美国家的朋友和伙伴,无分左右。中国人喜欢巴西,大多数中国人甚至搞不清左右在巴西意味着什么。
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