Whoever America's next president is, the Middle East will continue to present a series of difficult challenges. Thus far neither Barack Obama nor John McCain has either demonstrated an understanding of all that is wrong with this part of the world, or acknowledged that some very different approaches are required. Obama has expressed greater openness to a change in direction (e.g. by suggesting talks with Iranian leaders), but what is required is nothing less than a complete overhaul.
The foregoing is not to suggest that Arabs and Muslims have not played a large part in this long season of their own discontent. To the contrary, the prototypical Middle Eastern state is little more than a ramshackle incubator designed to sustain the dominance of military and security apparatuses and to funnel money toward a few privileged business interests. The citizen has little or no voice, and the state is regarded at best with apathy and/or disdain and at worst with fear and/or hatred. Once consequence of this fact is the growing influence of non-state actors. Parties like Lebanon's Hizbullah, Palestine's Hamas, and Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood have stepped in to provide services that people need and that governments have ignored. Until the region has better leaderships, therefore, such organizations will continue to grow in size and strength. They will also tend overwhelmingly to be anti-American in their outlooks - and they will have good reason to do so. From the 1953 coup that overthrew an elected prime minister in Iran to the collective punishment of the Palestinian people for having elected Hamas in 2006, Washington has worked relentlessly to prevent and/or undo the rise of popular political forces.
In order to sustain this project, the United States continues to subsidize an ugly collection of despotic regimes. These sclerotic governments grow more out of touch with their peoples every day, necessitating greater exertions to maintain their grips on power - and adding more appeal to opposition parties, virtually all of which blame the United States for their predicaments.
The next US president might start by becoming deeply and determinedly engaged in the Syrian-Israeli peace process, and by working to abet reconciliation rather than revanchism in Lebanon, both of which would serve as accelerants for any effort to solve the Palestinian-Israeli riddle. Diluting Washington's traditional pro-Israeli bias would also increase US credibility for the necessary role of supporting economic and political reforms aimed at democratizing the Middle East. Phenomenons like civil strife in Lebanon, genocide in Darfur and terrorism in Yemen are not linked, but they stem from many of the same causes. America's next president will have to recognize this fact - and acknowledge America's partial responsibility for it - if he is to have any hope of turning the tide.
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