Campaign Without a Knock-Out
Published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
(Germany) on 10/17/2008
by Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger (link to
original)
It was the last one of three debates--and another one of dwindling opportunities for John McCain to turn around these elections. Although he used this opportunity as well and aggressively as he could, it is yet impossible to conclude that he was able to sway the dynamics of the elections to his favor. The debate between the Republican McCain and the Democrat Obama was vigorous, somewhat tough and ultimately not entirely controlled.
But the situation after the debate has not changed: it failed to produce a major blow before the finale. Barack Obama leads in the polls with a widening gap; the economic conditions are to the advantage of his candidacy and McCains negative and aggressive campaign advertisements resonate little with the mainstream voters whose votes are necessary to win the White House. On the contrary, this type of campaign pushes away many potential voters.
Economy versus Security as the Highest Priority
Does it repel too many voters? Unless an unforeseeable event happens, the polls results will come to pass, and after eight years a Democrat will again move into the White House. If the economy remains the main topic of the day, the odds that Obama will become the 44th President of the United States will be the greatest. Should the voters be concerned the most about international and domestic security, then McCains chances will increase. However, to McCains disadvantage, the issue of security has slipped down on the list of priorities. For that reason, McCain has not succeeded in pitting his leadership strengths against Obamas inexperience, at least not among the most important segment of voters. That McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin do their utmost, focusing on Obamas character may appeal to the Republican base; however, if the polls are right, this strategy has little success with the undecided voters.
Moments of Honesty in the Voting Booth
After the fleeting culmination in late summer, the factors that generally pointed to the change of the political party in power further augmented for the 47 years old Democrat from Chicago. However, Obama does not want his supporters to chill the champagne. First, public surveys are not the most reliable indicators. Secondly, the most important question: whether in the moments of honesty inside voting booths, many white voters will let Obamas skin color (and his slightly exotic biography) frighten them off will remain unanswered until that very last moment.
The focus of this question is mainly on the white low middle-class voters in the most contested states. For different reasons voters on the Pacific coast or in Southern states, such questions are not raised. In any case, the voters, who saw a genuine confrontation of the two candidates, have the choice. Given program and style, rhetoric and temper, age, experience, and skin color, there is nothing else to wish for in terms of clarity and unambiguity. The choice will be made on November 4th.
But the situation after the debate has not changed: it failed to produce a major blow before the finale. Barack Obama leads in the polls with a widening gap; the economic conditions are to the advantage of his candidacy and McCains negative and aggressive campaign advertisements resonate little with the mainstream voters whose votes are necessary to win the White House. On the contrary, this type of campaign pushes away many potential voters.
Economy versus Security as the Highest Priority
Does it repel too many voters? Unless an unforeseeable event happens, the polls results will come to pass, and after eight years a Democrat will again move into the White House. If the economy remains the main topic of the day, the odds that Obama will become the 44th President of the United States will be the greatest. Should the voters be concerned the most about international and domestic security, then McCains chances will increase. However, to McCains disadvantage, the issue of security has slipped down on the list of priorities. For that reason, McCain has not succeeded in pitting his leadership strengths against Obamas inexperience, at least not among the most important segment of voters. That McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin do their utmost, focusing on Obamas character may appeal to the Republican base; however, if the polls are right, this strategy has little success with the undecided voters.
Moments of Honesty in the Voting Booth
After the fleeting culmination in late summer, the factors that generally pointed to the change of the political party in power further augmented for the 47 years old Democrat from Chicago. However, Obama does not want his supporters to chill the champagne. First, public surveys are not the most reliable indicators. Secondly, the most important question: whether in the moments of honesty inside voting booths, many white voters will let Obamas skin color (and his slightly exotic biography) frighten them off will remain unanswered until that very last moment.
The focus of this question is mainly on the white low middle-class voters in the most contested states. For different reasons voters on the Pacific coast or in Southern states, such questions are not raised. In any case, the voters, who saw a genuine confrontation of the two candidates, have the choice. Given program and style, rhetoric and temper, age, experience, and skin color, there is nothing else to wish for in terms of clarity and unambiguity. The choice will be made on November 4th.