Under Obama, Sino-American Trade Disputes May Increase

Published in Asia Times
(Hong Kong) on 5 November 2008
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Peter Stevens. Edited by .
Democrat Barak Obama was elected America’s new president amidst a financial tsunami; without a doubt, resolving the country’s economic problems will be his principal mission. America is China’s most important trading partner, and scholars believe that in the early stages of Obama’s term he will take steps to reduce America’s trade deficit with China and that the “Trade Imbalance” will become an important focus of the Sino-American relationship. However, analysts do not expect his China policy to be very different from previous mainstream Democratic and Republican policies.

Trade with China was certainly not a major focus of the recent U.S. presidential campaigns, but, because the two countries are so important to each other as trading partners, and are so important to the global economy, the rest of the world will also pay close attention to his trade policies toward China.

The Democratic Party has taken a relatively tough standpoint on Chinese trade problems in the past, and Obama has publicly referred to America’s large trade deficit, saying that it is the result of “manipulation of the Renminbi exchange rate,” also saying that “China needs to change its policies, including its exchange rate policy.” He has also said that the Chinese economy needs to reduce its dependence on exports and depend more upon domestic demand to achieve growth. He said that he would do his best to use every diplomatic measure to spur China toward carrying out the reforms listed above.

China’s foreign ministry immediately responded that the Renminbi exchange rate was not a fundamental cause of America’s trade deficit with China; the problem of the trade deficit was caused by the economic globalization and accelerated developments in the division of industrial labor.

After Obama takes office, Sino-American trade may experience more friction, mainly over product safety, the Renminbi exchange rate, intellectual property rights and the American trade deficit. But Cha Xiaogang, an expert on the United States at the Shanghai Institute of International Affairs, believes that this will absolutely not impact the true fundamentals of the Sino-American relationship After the onset of the financial crisis, with America possibly facing the most serious economic recession since the 1930s, it especially needs China's aid. Cha Xiaogang points out that, as China is currently the biggest overseas holder of American debt, America needs to maintain China's trust.

After Obama's victory was announced, Chairman Hu Jintao congratulated him on television. In a statement published on its website, the Chinese foreign ministry said that China and America share extensive common benefits, and that the development of a long-term, healthy relationship between the two countries - in line with the fundamental interests of world peace, stability and development - is of great significance.

He said that he and the government of China view the Chinese-American relationship with a high degree of importance, and that they expect to work hard with Obama to strengthen the dialogue between the two countries, increase mutual cooperation and bring Sino-American relations to a new heights.


民主黨的奧巴馬當選新一任美國總統,在金融海嘯下,毫無疑問經濟問題是他首要解決的任務。美國作為中國重要經濟夥伴之一,學者認為在奧巴馬上任初期,將會在減少美國對中國經貿逆差上給予一定壓力,“貿易不平衡”將成為中美經濟關係重要的議題。不過,預期他對華政策不會與民主與共和兩黨之前主政時有太大分別。

對華貿易並不是今屆美國總統選舉的重要議題,不過,由於兩國均是對方重要經濟夥伴,更是全球重要經濟國家,外界亦關注奧巴馬上升後的對華貿易政策。

民主黨過去在對華經貿問題上立場一向相對強硬,奧巴馬曾公開指,美國對存在巨額貿易逆差,並指這是“操縱人民幣匯率”的直接結果,並稱“中國必須改變其政策,包括匯率政策”。他又說,中國經濟必須減少對出口的依賴,更多地依靠內需實現增長。他表示將盡自己所能,利用所有外交手段促使中國作出以上轉變。

中國外交部隨即回應指,人民幣匯率不是引起中美貿易逆差的根本原因,貿易逆差問題是經濟全球化下產業分工加速調整造成的。

縱使奧巴馬上任後,中美貿易摩擦可能增加,主要是產品安全、人民幣匯率、知識產權、美國貿易逆差等。不過,上海國際問題研究所美國問題專家查小剛認為,這並不會對現時的中美關係產生實質影響。尤其在美國爆發金融危機後,美國可能面臨上世紀30年代大蕭條以來最嚴重的經濟衰退,正需要中國協助。查小剛指,尤其中國目前是美國國債的最大海外持有人之一,美國需要中國保持對其國債的信任。

在奧巴馬宣佈當選後,中國國家主席胡錦濤致電祝賀。中國外交部網站公佈的聲明指,胡錦濤表示,中美兩國擁有廣泛的共同利益,發展長期健康穩定關係,符合兩國根本利益,對維護和促進世界的和平、穩定與發展具有重要意義。

他說,他本人與中國政府和高度重視中美關係,期待與奧巴馬努力加強兩國對話與交流,增進互信合作,把中美關係提高到新的水平。
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