Will Sino-U.S. Relations Open Low But Come End High?

Sun Zhe: China and U.S. should start the fourth Sino-US Joint Communiqués,
China should strengthen the work towards U.S congress.

[Background] Recently, Sino-U.S. relations have floated across several dark clouds

According to the Web site “XinHua,” the American House of Representatives passed an item on March 11th regarding the Tibet resolution issue, ignoring opposition from China. “XinHua” said that the above mentioned resolution “made irresponsible comments in regards to the Chinese government’s policy towards Tibetan issues”, to support of the Dalai group to split the Chinese homeland.

On March 10th, the U.S. White House and the State Department spokesmen issued separate statements regarding America’s heightened attention towards Tibetan human rights, criticizing the Chinese government’s Tibetan policy, requesting China and the Dalai Lama to carry on having “substantive” dialogue and so forth.

On the 10th, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma ZhaoXu requested that the respective congressmen abide by fundamental forms of international relationship, and stop promoting Tibetan-related resolutions. He said, “Tibetan (political and economic) affairs are Chinese internal affairs pure and simple. The Chinese government and people share a constant strong determination to oppose any country and any persons exploiting the Tibetan issue interferes with Chinese internal affairs. The U.S ignored the facts regarding the Tibetan issue criticizing for no reason. This is a gross interference of Chinese internal affairs and hurts the Chinese people’s feelings. Our response to this is strong dissatisfaction and a determination to oppose, ready to face America and sternly discuss these matters.”

On March 11th, Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma ZhaoXu answered questions from reporters regarding the matter of the U.S Navy surveillance vessel in Chinese exclusive economic zones. He said that the U.S. Naval surveillance vessel the “USS Impeccable” violates international law and China’s stipulated laws and regulations. “Without permission to engage in activities in the exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, China thus raised this issue towards the U.S. We demand America to take effective action to avoid repeating this incident.”

On February 26th, Ma Zhaoxu also issued a statement in regards to the U.S. State Department’s report on human rights. "We urge the U.S. side to reflect on its own human rights problems, stop acting as a “human rights guardian” and stop interfering in others internal affairs by releasing human rights reports."

Tsinghua University Sino-U.S. Relations Research Center Director Sun Zhe believes
that it is unlikely that the Obama administration will follow the trend of the last several U.S. administrations, the “open low come up high” policy towards China. The two have already had established diplomatic relations for 30 years; both sides have formed a relatively mature partnership. From a historic standpoint, a flood control dam has already been established. He suggested that there should be a strengthening of the system of Sino-U.S. relations, where the government should be devoted to launch the fourth joint communiqué and strengthen the work of the American Congress.

He said that in order to sign such a document by China’s internal democracy, legislative work must make more progress. Also “the success of China's own reform will convince the U.S. government and the people.”

In his opinion, the U.S. attitude of mistrust will still exist during Obama’s time, but China must be especially aware of the negative influence of the House of Representatives. But the positive Sino-U.S. relations that have already formed will not change.

During Obama's term, will a potential threat in Sino-U.S. relations still exist? Sun Zhe believes that America's two political parties have gradually formed a hedge cross party consensus of China. With some Americans, there still exists a mistrustful attitude regarding China, maintaining a psychological guard. Therefore, America perhaps believes that China's military modernization, human rights and environmental protection presents a challenge. In addition, because the U.S. carries out a pragmatic policy, makes every effort to maximize self-benefit. Therefore, the two sides will continue to have contradictions on the trade issue. Chinese aid in Africa as well as African relationship development could also encounter some questions from American.

Sun Zhe calls attention to, besides the government departments, the American House of Representatives will act as a troublemaker to challenge Obama’s future economic and trade policies towards China. All kind of trade protectionism, finance nationalism and investment protectionism will affect the White House’s economic policies towards China. He indicated that China should strengthen the efforts of the work of the United States Congress. Although in recent years China has already made attempts, such as the CNOOC (China National offshore oil corporation), who also already invited the U.S. Legal Affairs Bureau for support, but the talents and funds for the operation still need to be improved overall.

But Sun Zhe believes that after the 9/11 incident, the U.S. recognized
that China is not U.S.'s primary opponent. Sino-U.S. relations emerged to
change for the better, at present this kind of pattern has not changed.
Therefore, U.S. strategy must maintain good relations with China. In addition to the rapid development of China in these recent years, has resulted in it having
a more and more important role on the world stage. This will also cause
the U.S. to handle China relations more carefully.

Sun Zhe indicated a change may be seen in the U.S. regarding China's
strategic position of development. What Americans discussed in the 1990s
was China's collapse; afterward, they discussed China as a threat and presently
discuss China's responsibility regarding trade relations. Sun Zhe believes that this is one of the most important trade relations in the present world, but the institutionalization is still low. He uses U.S. – Canadian trade relations as the example, where they had already formed a very mature institutional arrangement. Even if a problem were to emerge, they would act in accordance with the system's negotiated resolution. But China and U.S. trade relation's process, still has some touchy spots. For instance, intellectual property
rights issues, investment limits and so on.

Previously, during Hillary's visit to China, China and U.S.'s Strategic Economy Dialogue (SED) reached some initial agreements, ensuring that this Sino-U.S. high-level exchange mechanism will continue. Sun Zhe thinks that this mechanism is the important balancing implement between the two countries, is an important consultation platform that China and the U.S. can hold after the emergence of divergences between two countries. Hillary believed that China-U.S. communication during the Bush administration paid exclusive attention to economic dialogue and hopes that in the future this can be expanded to a wider range of areas. Therefore, besides intellectual property rights, trade, exchange rate, there will be an increase in subjects such as investment protection, environmental protection, climatic change, but Sun Zhe also indicated that the SED will not involve an excess of non-economical topics. He calls attention to how it will the present mechanism carry on in the future, who is responsible for leadership had not yet been confirmed.

He suggested in his research report from a long-term plan that the governments
of China and the U.S. should prepare to start the 4th joint communiqué negotiations. Sun Zhe explained that by the original three Sino-U.S. joint communiqués signed earlier, the Sino-U.S. relations use of law will be very important to the stable development of Sino-U.S. relations.

But Sun Zhe also stressed that this is a long-term plan and can not be achieved quickly. because China's developmental change has been very rapid. Only after China’s own political institution was constructed, only then will both sides have a stronger mutual desire and trust. In addition, to a certain degree, the trust and desire also depend on the China’s diplomatic work towards U.S legislature. However, China and the U.S. can first consider striving to sign a similar “Sino-Japanese Peace Friendship treaty” by ten years from now, a kind of “quasi-legal” document.

Sun Zhe predicted in his research report to take part in government one’s experience must be rich and political qualifications deep for service, as is Biden, who will become the Obama administration’s ( at least at its initial period) main person in the foreign policy-making team, Obama will get help from Biden's strength, to balance the possible “arbitrary acts” of Hillary at Foreign affairs. Therefore, the Obama administration will possibly have the Vice President and State department foreign affairs as two strategic decision centers.

Sun Zhe said “At present, the U.S. still does not have a definite person to lead the future of Chinese diplomacy. However, Biden and Hillary both take practical diplomatic routes, regardless of who leads, the Sino-US relations is unlikely to have huge differences. Biden as Vice President, in the event that he were to lead Chinese foreign affairs, the work of coordinating the Ministry of Finance, Department of Commercial Affairs and other departments, would be even more effective.

Reporter: Ouyang Bin

Reporter: Ouyang Bin