Eloquent as it was, the speech American President Barack Obama gave in Oslo upon his receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize also managed to raise numerous questions regarding his role as United States commander-in-chief and his mission to protect and defend his country.
Going for an enigmatic speech is not exactly a bad strategy for a president, yet Obama’s approach fuels uncertainties surrounding his foreign policy strategy. Unlike Ronald Reagan, the last American president to make a visible mark on international relations and to use U.S. supremacy in order to bring his allies closer, Obama has chosen to regain the allies’ trust and U.S. position among other nations through diplomatic efforts. His goal, according to Stratfor [Strategic Forecasting, Inc., a global intelligence company] is to rebuild America’s power.
The deep similarities and differences between Reagan and Obama represent a starting point for our understanding of what the first year of Barack Obama’s presidency really meant.
Ronald Reagan became president after his predecessor, Jimmy Carter, was held responsible for the double crisis America was going through back then: an economic, as well as an image crisis, the latter having been brought on by the hostage crisis in the U.S. Embassy in Teheran (1979-1981) and the invasion of Russian troops in Afghanistan.
Similarly, Obama’s rise to power occurred during an economic crisis that began during George W. Bush’s presidency, which prejudiced other nations’ trust in the justness and limits of American foreign policy.
Another similarity is that neither managed to win the elections overwhelmingly. Reagan won, with 50.7 percent of the vote, while Obama won with 52.9 percent. Both presidents’ popularity declined as economic problems continued and they failed to honor promises regarding foreign policy.
In Iraq, Obama continues Bush’s policy of phased withdrawal, and he increased the number of troops in Afghanistan. In Iran, he continues the strategy based on sanctions. As far as U.S. relations with Russia are concerned, although the anti-rocket shield was abandoned, Obama continues Bush’s policy and supports the admission of the Ukraine and Georgia into NATO. As for the U.S. relations with China, Obama emphasizes the importance of economic relations, without bringing up human rights issues.
Obama’s strategy is centered on changing the way in which the U.S. is perceived globally, while, at the same time, implementing a foreign policy plan dictated by geopolitical realities. The problem is, according to Stratfor, that Obama’s peace-making intentions have already raised many expectations.
The continuity of a country’s foreign policy is just as important as a president’s trustworthiness and popularity. On the cusp of his first and second year as president, Obama’s strategy on foreign policy, if he has one, is still raising questions. The truth remains that Obama is slowly running out of time and needs to develop his strategy or invent one quickly.
2009, anul lui Obama
Discursul tinut la Oslo de presedintele american Barack Obama cu ocazia primirii Premiului Nobel pentru Pace a fost elocvent in aceeasi masura in care a starnit numeroase intrebari in ceea ce priveste rolul sau de comandant militar al SUA, a carui misiune este de a proteja si apara tara.
Un discurs enigmatic nu este o strategie tocmai gresita pentru un presedinte, dar adoptarea lui ridica nedumeriri cu privire la strategia de politica externa a presedintelui. Spre deosebire de Ronald Reagan, ultimul presedinte american cu amprenta vizibila asupra relatiilor internationale si care a facut apel la suprematia SUA pentru a-si readuce aliatii aproape, Obama alege sa recastige, prin eforturi diplomatice, increderea aliatilor si prestigiul SUA in lume cu scopul ultim de a spori puterea Americii, crede Stratfor.
Similaritatile si diferentele profunde dintre Reagan si Obama reprezinta un punct din care putem incepe sa intelegem ce a insemnat ultimul an de presedintie al lui Barack Obama.
Ronald Reagan a devenit presedintele SUA dupa ce predecesorul sau, Jimmy Carter, a fost vazut ca responsabil pentru dubla criza in care se afla America acelor vremuri: o criza economica si una de imagine, ultima provocata de criza ostaticilor Ambasadei SUA din Teheran (1979-1981) si de invazia trupelor rusesti in Afganistan.
Venirea la putere a lui Obama s-a petrecut, de asemenea, pe fondul unei crize economice ce a inceput in mandatul lui George W. Bush, care pe plan extern a creat o atmosfera de neincredere in ceea ce priveste justetea si limitele politicii externe americane.
Asemanarile continua, astfel incat putem observa ca niciunul dintre ei nu a castigat alegerile la diferente semnificative. Reagan a castigat cu 50,7% din voturi, in timp ce Obama a acumulat 52,9% din preferintele alegatorilor. Ambii au scazut in popularitate pe masura ce problemele economice au continuat, iar promisiunile in ceea ce priveste politica externa nu au fost confirmate.
In Irak, Obama continua politica lui Bush de retragere controlata, in Afganistan acesta a suplimentat trupele, in ceea ce priveste Iranul, in continuare se mizeaza pe o politica a sanctiunilor, vizavi de Rusia, desi s-a decis renuntarea la scutul anti-racheta, Obama continua pozitia administratiei Bush de sustinere a primirii Ucrainei si Georgiei in NATO, iar in relatia cu China se pune in continuare accent pe legaturile economice, fara a aduce in discutie problemele umanitare.
Strategia lui Obama este de a schimba perceptia SUA la nivel global, pe masura ce urmeaza un plan de politica externa dictat de realitatile geopolitice. Problema este ca Obama a creat deja asteptari mari cu privire la intentiile sale pacifiste, potrivit Stratfor.
Continuitatea politicii externe este importanta, la fel si increderea si popularitatea unui presedinte. La cumpana dintre primul si al doilea an de mandat, persista insa multe intrebari in privinta strategiei sale de politica externa, iar Obama nu mai are mult timp la dispozitie pentru a-si formula sau inventa una.
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Time will tell whether the strategic ambitions of the French-German alliance, including those regarding the European army, will jeopardize the EU's cohesiveness, and especially how much longer they can work together within NATO.