Good Presidents Don’t Get Re-elected?

Published in United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 28 January 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by John Yu. Edited by Laura Berlinsky-Schine.
In response to criticism over stagnating health care reform and setbacks in the senatorial by-election, President Obama recently declared, “I’d rather be a really good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president.”

That may go down as one of his famous sayings, but it’s not really saying anything new. The topic of their conversation, “Leaders look to the next generation, politicians look to the next election,” is also something that’s been discussed over and over again.

On closer inspection, however, this statement implies a paradox. Why do mediocre presidents get re-elected over good ones? Why does looking to the next generation necessarily contradict looking to the next election? Either way you look at it, the statement seems to cast doubt on our systems of election and democracy.

There are times when good presidents lose re-elections and “looking to the next election” trumps “looking to the next generation,” but this isn’t an immutable law. We can only say that in a system of democratic election, it’s tough to be a president who looks to the next election while looking to the next generation.

That brings up something else Obama said: “I don’t want to look back on my time here and say to myself all I was interested in was nurturing my own popularity.” This begs the question, “What’s wrong with nurturing one’s popularity if it involves doing the right thing?” Why would that make someone lose an election?

Perhaps what politicians are really worried about is that their efforts to nurture popularity might backfire and end up alienating people, because I believe that in an overall moderate society (like those in the US and Taiwan), good presidents are often re-elected and looking to the next generation shouldn’t have to contradict looking to the next election.

Of course, re-electing good presidents should be one of the goals of any good democracy. If they can’t get re-elected, it could either be because the president isn’t good enough or the people aren’t good at choosing one. Either way, that’s a shame for any democracy!


美國總統歐巴馬在推動健保改革遭到強烈質疑,聯邦參議員補選又告失利;輿論將這些挫敗歸咎於他。歐巴馬說:「我寧可只當一任好總統,也不願當兩任平庸的總統。」

這句話雖可留作歐巴馬的傳世名言,卻也無甚新意。其原始出處是「政治家看下一代,政客看下一次選舉」,其實已是老生常談。

細思起來,這句話的弦外之音毋寧充滿弔詭。為什麼「好總統」可能無法連任,又為什麼「平庸」的總統可能連任?再者,為什麼「看下一代」一定會與「看下一次選舉」有矛盾牴觸?說來說去,不啻成了對民主體制與選舉制度的質疑。

在經驗上,「好總統」不能連任,「看下一代」贏不了「下一次選舉」的事例,確實存在或發生過。但是,「好總統」也未必不能連任,「看下一代」亦未必贏不了「下一次選舉」。只能說,在民主體制選舉制度下,要當一個兼顧「下一次選舉」與「下一代」的總統並非易事。

這又與歐巴馬所說的另一句話有關,他說:「我不要將來回顧總統任期,自忖滿腦子想的都是如何討好民眾。」這句話也待斟酌,如果真能以正道「討好」多數民眾,有何不可?倘係如此,又豈會輸掉「下一次選舉」?

問題恐怕是想要「討好」所有的人,以致變得使多數人失望。尤其,在美國或台灣這類主流民意存有中道思維的社會,「下一代」與「下一次選舉」理應並無絕對的矛盾牴觸,好總統連任的機會也很大。

其實,該當致力於「使好總統連任」,才是一個正常民主體制選舉制度應當積極追求的目標。如果不能如此,也許是總統「不夠好」,或選民「不識貨」,那皆是民主政治的遺憾!
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