One Step Closer to a Nuclear-Free World

Published in Tokyo Shimbun
(Japan) on 9 April 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Biant. Edited by Catherine Harrington.
U.S-Russian pact of nuclear disarmament — A trustworthy “oath in Prague”?

The leaders of America and Russia have signed a new nuclear disarmament treaty in Prague, the place where, one year ago, Obama — the president of the United States — made a speech promoting “a world without nuclear weapons.” Both of these countries, which hold 95 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons, want to implement this “oath in Prague.”

This new treaty is becoming the follow up to the first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) that expired in December of last year.

At a news conference after the signing ceremony, President Obama expressed his feelings on the new treaty, stressing that “Today is an important milestone for nuclear security and non-proliferation, and for U.S.-Russia relations.” He then turned his attention to a world without nuclear weapons, stating “it’s one small step in a longer journey.” Russian President Medvedev made the assessment that this disarmament would “influence the national interest and balance of both countries.”

In the new treaty, the maximum amount of nuclear warheads that can be deployed in both countries is 1,550, which is a reduction of 30 percent from the maximum limit of 2,200 that was agreed to in the Moscow treaty (signed in 2002). The maximum limit for means of transport of things like missiles will be 800, which is a reduction by half of the START I limit. The treaty also included verification measures like the exchange of local inspection and experimental data. They must achieve these targets within seven years of the treaty coming into effect.

The next barrier is to ratify the treaty between the two countries via congress. It is necessary that two-thirds or more of the U.S Senate give its approval; therefore, President Obama will need to persuade those conservatives who strongly insist on maintaining nuclear force.

There is also speculation about America and Russia with regard to the reduction of nuclear weapons. Russia’s nuclear weapons are deteriorating and they don’t have the budget to update parts. So, even though America is reducing its nuclear weapons, because of their superior conventional weapons, they are maintaining equilibrium with Russia.

Nevertheless, if the two largest countries with nuclear weapons take the initiative and make an effort to reduce their nuclear warheads and means of transport, then it will have some persuasive power to prompt other nuclear states to do the same. Even Japan, “the only country to be atom-bombed,” is ready to accept the total abolition of nuclear weapons.

At the interview, both leaders expressed great concern about Iran continuing its uranium enrichment programs. The strengthening of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) lies in a common understanding between America and Russia, making it possible to accelerate movements to put sanctions on Iran.

Cause for concern lies in Russia harboring suspicion of America’s plans to advance its missile defense (MD). In order for the new treaty to go according to plan, heightened concern about missile defense must be replaced by hope for close diplomatic efforts between the two countries.

While America and Russia keep trying to disarm themselves, China is in a hurry to modernize its nuclear weapons. Previously, President Obama showed his concern for the “opacity” of China’s nuclear arms policy. Before long, it will be necessary to hold a nuclear disarmament conference involving China and other nuclear states regarding the America-Russia situation.


米ロ核軍縮条約 『プラハの誓い』着実に

米国とロシアの首脳がプラハで新しい核軍縮条約に調印した。一年前にオバマ米大統領が「核なき世界」演説をした場所だ。世界の核兵器の95%を保有する両国は「プラハの誓い」を推進したい。
 新条約は昨年十二月に失効した第一次戦略兵器削減条約(START1)の後継になる。
 調印式後の共同会見でオバマ大統領は新条約について「核の安全保障と不拡散、米ロ関係にとって重要な一里塚だ」と強調し、核なき世界に向けた「長い旅の一歩だ」と述べた。ロシアのメドベージェフ大統領は「両国の国益とバランスを反映した」と評価した。
 新条約では米ロ双方が配備する戦略核弾頭の上限を千五百五十とし、モスクワ条約(二〇〇二年調印)で上限とされた二千二百より約30%削減される。ミサイルなど運搬手段の上限もSTART1時点から半減の八百となる。現地査察や実験データの交換といった検証措置も盛り込んだ。条約発効から七年以内にこの目標を達成しなくてはならない。
 次の関門は両国議会による条約の批准だ。米上院では三分の二以上の賛成が必要となり、オバマ大統領は核戦力維持を強く主張する保守派の説得を迫られる。
 核削減には米ロの思惑もあった。ロシアは核兵器が老朽化して機材更新には予算が足らない。米国は核を削減しても通常兵器の優位によりロシアとの均衡を保てると判断した。
 それでも二大核大国が率先して核弾頭と運搬手段の削減に取り組めば、他の核保有国にも削減を促す説得力を持てる。「唯一の被爆国」日本にとっても、核廃絶への一歩と歓迎できる。
 また両首脳は会見で、ウラン濃縮を続けるイランに強い懸念を表明した。核拡散防止条約(NPT)体制の強化が米ロの共通認識であり、イランに対する制裁の動きが加速する可能性がある。
 不安材料は米国が進めるミサイル防衛(MD)構想にロシアが不信感を抱いていることだ。新しい条約を軌道に乗せるためにも、MDをめぐって緊張を高めることがないよう両国には緊密な外交努力を望む。
 米ロが軍縮に取り組む一方で、中国は核兵器の近代化を急いでいる。オバマ大統領も先に、中国の核政策に対し「不透明だ」と懸念を示した。やがては米ロに中国など他の核保有国も巻き込んだ核軍縮会議が必要になろう。
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