The New Meanings and Intentions of America’s Nuclear Posture Review

Published in Sohu
(China) on 8 April 2010
by Wang Fengfeng and Du Jing (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Michelle Deeter. Edited by Harley Jackson.
On April 6, the U.S. Department of Defense issued the Nuclear Posture Review, as well as a new national nuclear strategy. U.S. President Obama issued a statement afterwards saying that “the greatest threat to U.S. and global security is no longer a nuclear exchange between nations, but nuclear terrorism by violent extremists and nuclear proliferation to an increasing number of states.” The main objective in America’s nuclear strategy is to prevent these threats.

Analysts believe that this recently announced report is driven by new ideas and intentions. America issued this review before the Nuclear Security Summit, which will deliberate on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in the hopes that it can guide international cooperation on nuclear security and non-proliferation, as well as set the agenda for the dialogue on nuclear weapons.

Emphasis on Nuclear Strategic Balance

After the Cold War ended, America’s Department of Defense previously issued two other Nuclear Posture Reviews, but the most recent one is both different from and clearer than the other reviews. It emphasizes the concept of nuclear strategic balance.

Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy James Miller said on April 6 that this third report is the most comprehensive, and that it is the only report of which all the contents have been made public. He said the new strategy in the report emphasizes the balance between America’s and other countries’ nuclear capabilities, as well as the balance of American deployed weapons and nuclear stock. A Department of Defense official who wished to remain anonymous told the media on April 5 that the report repeatedly mentioned the word “balance.”

According to the content, this new report is neither very extremist nor very conservative. It states that any party lacking nuclear weapons that did not sign and comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty could use nuclear weapons. But the report did not announce that the unsigned country could not use weapons first. The report stated that America would reduce its nuclear weapons stores and reduce the importance of nuclear weapons in its national security strategy; however, America could still keep some weapons to use as a nuclear deterrent and provide nuclear protection to its allies. The report also stated that America would no longer develop new nuclear weapons and would stop nuclear testing, but made it clear that America would continue to develop conventional weapons and would not restrict its guided missile defense system.

The report indicates that the United States will take a step toward limiting the use of nuclear weapons, promising to only consider using nuclear weapons under the most extreme circumstances. Still, it would protect its own country’s security, as well as the security of its allies. Its long-term goal is to limit the use of nuclear weapons so they are only used as a deterrent against countries who want to start a nuclear war against America and its allies.

Understanding Nuclear Agenda Setting

It is thought provoking that the United States decided to publish the Nuclear Posture Review before attending the Nuclear Security Summit and signing a nuclear disarmament treaty with Russia.

On April 8, Obama will leave for Prague, the capital of the Czech Republic, and sign a nuclear disarmament treaty with Russian President Medvedev. Next week, the Nuclear Security Summit will be held in America’s capital, Washington. Leaders and government officials from 47 countries will talk about ways to ensure global nuclear security in the next four years. Additionally, the United Nations will hold a conference deliberating on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in May to further strengthen global nuclear disarmament and prevent proliferation.

After the Nuclear Posture Review was issued, Obama issued a statement emphasizing the importance of every country's compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and promising that America would comply with this treaty. This statement clearly sends the signal: Obama hopes to make nuclear non-proliferation and prevention of nuclear terrorism the main items on the agenda.

Experts expressed different opinions on this issue. The former under secretary general for disarmament affairs, Jayantha Dhanapala, recognizes that nuclear terrorism is a major threat to international nuclear security. But he told reporters at Xinhua that, in order to create nuclear security, it is necessary to move one step farther and work toward total weapons disarmament, and not to unilaterally stress non-proliferation. He believes that the reason why nuclear materials and nuclear technology are in danger of being abused is because many countries still consider the possession of nuclear weapons to be a symbol of international status.

The Brookings Institution's national security expert, Michael O’Hanlan, said that America’s decision to give up a certain flexibility of its use of nuclear weapons in its nuclear strategy and reduce its stock of nuclear weapons will help Obama demand that other countries work hard to prevent nuclear proliferation and promote nuclear security. Thus, this decision is not a blind request from America for disarmament.

James Acton, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace nuclear proliferation and nuclear disarmament expert, told Xinhua reporters that nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism are a major threat to every country. In order to meet this challenge, every country needs to cooperate more. For example, countries need to reach an agreement at the Nuclear Security Summit and safeguard the security of nuclear materials. Furthermore, the Security Council needs to encourage cooperation and make certain that those who do not comply with the rules of nuclear non-proliferation are punished.

The Concept of a Nuclear-Free World May be Postponed

It was exactly a year between the time that Obama gave a speech about the concept of a nuclear-free world in Prague on April 5, 2009, and the day when the Nuclear Posture Review was released. The review was originally supposed to be released in December. According to media reports, one of the reasons why the review was delayed was because the Department of Defense was preparing to release an evaluation that suggested continuing with the status quo. The White House intervened and made major revisions to the Nuclear Posture Review when it became aware of this.

Compared to previous Nuclear Posture Reviews, there are two things that are different with the newest Nuclear Posture Review. Besides the fact that it describes nuclear disarmament in new ways, one of the most remarkable parts of the review is that America has stated it will not use nuclear weapons to fight if attacked with biological or chemical weapons. Acton has commented that America previously believed it had the right to use nuclear weapons to retaliate against a biological or nuclear attack.

Even though the report is more progressive, its contents are not about to create a nuclear-free world. Obama said in a statement, “so long as nuclear weapons exist, we will maintain a safe, secure and effective arsenal that guarantees the defense of the United States, reassures allies and partners, and deters potential adversaries.”

Acton believes that America cannot unilaterally disarm its nuclear weapons, nor can it implement any excessive policies concerning nuclear disarmament. Considering its current strong need for a nuclear arsenal, America might wait to make bigger steps toward disarmament, when it can guarantee that disarmament will not jeopardize security. Miller also pointed out that the new security environment requires the United States to continue to strengthen its regional security system, as well as take measures to strengthen deterrence against regional threats, which include guided missile defense systems, conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction.

Thus, as America takes a step toward a nuclear-free world, it is also taking other steps to preserve its ability to immediately attack any part of the world, and increase the security of itself and its allies.


美国国防部6日公布《核态势报告》,更新国家核战略。美国总统奥巴马随后发表声明说,美国与世界安全的首要威胁不再是国家之间的核战争,而是核恐怖主义与核扩散,美国核战略的首要目标是阻止这些威胁。
  分析人士认为,这份报告的出炉有新意,也有用意。美国在核安全峰会与《不扩散核武器条约》审议大会召开之前发表这一报告,是希望能够主导核安全与防扩散方面的国际合作,掌握核对话议程的主动权。
  强调核战略平衡
  冷战结束以来,美国国防部曾有过两份《核态势报告》,此次公布的新报告比前两份有明显的不同之处,强调了核战略平衡概念。
  美国国防部负责政策的副部长帮办米勒6日说,新报告是3份报告中内容最为全面的,也是唯一一份将所有内容都公开的报告。他说,新报告所讲述的新 战略注重美国与其他国家核能力的平衡、美国部署与库存核武器的平衡。一位不愿透露姓名的国防部官员5日向媒体介绍该报告时也多次提到“平衡”这一概念。
  从内容来看,新报告体现的核战略既不激进,也不过于保守:宣布不对签署与遵守《不扩散核武器条约》的无核武器国家使用核武器,但没有宣布不首先 使用核武器;宣布裁减核武器库、降低核武器在国家安全战略中的重要性,但同时表示将继续保持核威慑力量、继续向盟友提供“核保护伞”;宣布不再发展新的核 武器、停止核试验,却表明将继续发展常规武器、阻止导弹防御系统受到限制并保留将战略轰炸机与远程弹道导弹用作常规用途的选择,即所谓“全球即时打击能 力”。
  报告表明,美国将进一步限制核武器的使用,承诺只在最极端的情况下考虑使用核武器,保护本国及盟友安全;其长期目标是将核武器的唯一作用限制为威慑别国不对美国及其盟友实施核打击。
  掌握核议程主动权
  美国选择在核安全峰会召开以及与俄罗斯签署新核裁军条约之前公布《核态势报告》,耐人寻味。
  8日,奥巴马将前往捷克首都布拉格,与俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫签署新的核裁军条约。下周,核安全峰会将在美国首都华盛顿举行,来自47个国家的领 导人和政府代表将协商如何在4年之内实现全球核材料安全。除此之外,联合国还将在5月举行《不扩散核武器条约》审议大会,进一步加强全球核裁军与防扩散努 力。
  奥巴马在《核态势报告》公布后发表声明,强调各国遵守《不扩散核武器条约》的重要性,承诺美国将遵守这一条约。这一表态明确传达了这样的信号:奥巴马希望将防止核扩散与防止核恐怖主义设置为国际核对话的主要议程。
  一些专家对这一问题发表了不同看法。联合国负责裁军事务的前副秘书长达纳帕拉承认恐怖主义是国际核安全的重大威胁。但他同时对新华社记者说,要 想真正实现核安全,必须把重点放在进一步裁军上,而不是片面强调防扩散问题。他认为,核材料与核技术之所以存在被滥用的危险,就是因为拥有核武器对不少国 家来说仍是“国际地位的象征”。
  布鲁金斯学会安全问题专家奥汉隆说,美国在核战略中放弃自己在核武器使用上的某种“灵活性”、裁减一定数量的核武器,有助于奥巴马要求其他国家为防止核扩散与核安全做出努力,而不是一味要求美国裁军。
  卡内基和平基金会核扩散与核威慑问题专家阿克顿对新华社记者说,核扩散与核恐怖主义对任何国家而言都是重大威胁,要想应对这些挑战,各国必须加强合作,例如在核安全峰会上达成协议,确保核材料安全;在安理会开展合作,确保违反核扩散规则的行为受到惩罚等。
  无核构想可缓行
  《核态势报告》公布的时间距奥巴马去年4月5日在布拉格发表“无核世界”构想演讲正好一年。报告原本应在去年12月公布,美国媒体报道说,公布 日期推迟的原因之一,是国防部原先准备的评估方向基本是延续现状。白宫在获知这一情况后加以干预,对核态势评估做出了重大调整。
  与以往的态度相比,新报告除了在核裁军方面有新表述外,最引人关注的内容之一,是美国不会在遭到生物与化学武器攻击时用核武器还击。阿克顿评价说,美国以往的态度一直是保留用核武器报复生化武器攻击的权利。
  尽管报告变得有“进步”,但“无核世界”并非这份报告急于实现的内容。奥巴马在发表声明时说,只要世界上还有核武器存在,美国就将为自己及其盟友保留有效的核威慑力量。
  阿克顿认为,美国不可能单方面或过度实施核裁军,鉴于其当前拥有远远超过需要的核武库,美可能在不危及安全保障的情况下进行幅度较大的核裁军。 米勒也指出,新的安全环境需要美国继续加强地区安全体系,加强针对地区威胁的威慑,这包括加强导弹防御系统和常规力量,遏制大规模杀伤性武器等。
  由此可见,美国在朝着“无核世界”迈进的同时,又通过其他方式保持“全球即时打击能力”,加强自身及盟友的安全保障。
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