China’s Strategy Heavily Marine-Focused

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 9 May 2010
by Chen MAI (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Daniel Kuey. Edited by Alex Brewer.
There is an American scholar who thinks that China is expanding regionally by land and sea, while another American scholar thinks that China is falling short in its desire to expand by culture and heritage.

Aside from India, China has no other major border conflicts. There was one rivalry involving the Qing Dynasty and Zhunbu, along China’s northern and northwestern frontiers. Another involved Russia, which slowly brewed into a conflict. The close of the Qing Dynasty saw a loss of 1.5 million square kilometers, and the Republic of China saw a loss of 1.6 million square kilometers of Outer Mongolia. Because of this territorial history, which has been harmful to China, Russia had concerns about retaliation; Mongolia was also worried. But it eventually worked out following a period of 60 years. An agreement was signed and a stable border was established in accordance with international law.

It’s worth taking a look at China’s historic and strategic heritage and long-term stability in finding its borders. In China’s history, trouble from foreigners has mainly come from invading nomadic peoples. Agrarian peoples have difficulty settling on grasslands. Chinese dynasties have historically been defensive regarding their national borders and have given priority to defending the interior. There are three sorts of defense, such as the Ming Dynasty’s erecting of the Great Wall, a border defense. Another sort is an offensive defense, which took place in the latter half of the Han Dynasty, involving crossing into the occupied western region and the northeast to “cut off the right and left arms” of the Huns’ invasion. The third type involves economics and trade. The fourth is the system of clans, vassals and tributes to the emperor. Today, China has fundamentally achieved stability on its borders, faces no significant threat to the nation and does not employ offensive tactics. With regard to terrorists, a joint defense has been implemented in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China has boosted trade activity and there is an economic function to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

With its border problems basically decided, China’s core territory is essentially stable. The focus is now on the seas with a continuous increase in maritime strength. The navy and air force will expand while the army will cut back. Firstly, the question of Taiwan is not yet resolved, there are Japanese clashes in the East China Sea and there are still potential clashes in the South China Sea. There is a need to protect trade routes. It is the same with land. As on the seas, it is defensive. In East Asia, China’s biggest concern is Japan. With China now unified, will it be able to control the links to Japan and Southeast Asia, just as the Zhengs of Taiwan have done? With the U.S. pulled back to the second island chain, it could still preserve its own security and also its goal of threatening potential opponents.

Protecting trade routes, China must maintain good relations with the nations along the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Rim and Southeast Asia and must establish tight economic and trade relations. Each year, China exports large quantities of goods and imports large quantities of raw material. Iron ore comes from Australia. South America and India are emerging. In the petroleum trade, Chinese oil companies in Africa sell oil to Europe and to the U.S., yet they import oil from the Middle East. On the world’s oceans, trade security is extremely important to China.

China’s navy is still one that is underwater, but in coast guard clashes China could be victorious. Yet there is no ability to protect territorial waters and also to protect marine trade routes. There is a need to achieve a balance of power on the seas and to avoid conflict. After India got aircraft carriers, Thailand bought one too.


中国战略重点侧重于海洋

[2636]  (2010-05-09)
早报导读

一位美国学者认为中国在地缘上向内陆和海洋扩张,另一位美国学者认为中国在文化和传统上扩张意愿不够。

  中国陆地边界问题除了印度外,已经没有大的矛盾。中国北方和西北边境一个是与清朝与准部的竞争,二是与俄国矛盾之中逐渐形成,清末失去了150万平方公里,民国有丢了外蒙古160万。因为这些领土历史,毕竟是害过中国,俄国有潜在担忧,蒙古也有心结。不过最终在这60年固定下来,签订了协定,建立了稳定边界,符合国际法。

  这看到中国历史战略传统,寻求边界上长期稳定。中国历史上外患主要是游牧民族入侵,农业民族很难进入到草原地区,中国历代王朝对边境国家是防御性的,保护内地为主。防御方式有三种,一个边境防御,像明朝建立长城。一个是进攻性防御,汉朝中期以后通过占领西域和东北,所谓断匈奴左臂和右臂防御匈奴进犯。三是经济和贸易。四是宗藩和朝贡制度。现在中国在边境上基本实现了稳定,没有足以威胁中国的国家,不采用进攻性策略。对恐怖分子,上海合作组织中实现联合防御。中国加速了贸易往来,上海合作组织有经济功能。

  边境问题基本解决,中国在陆地有稳定的后方,侧重于海洋,海洋上力量不断增加。要增加海空军和裁减陆军。首先是台湾问题未解决,与日本东海冲突,还有潜在的南海冲突。有保护贸易线路的需要。这与陆地一样,海上同样是防御性的。在东亚,对中国担忧最大的是日本,中国实现统一,会否像台湾郑氏那样控制日本与东南亚的联系?美国后退到第二岛链,仍然能达到保护自己安全和威胁潜在对手的目的。

  保护贸易线路,中国要与印度洋沿岸国家和东南亚保持良好关系,建立紧密经贸关系。中国每年要向世界出口大量商品,进口大量原料,铁矿要从澳大利亚,南美和印度出来,石油贸易,中国石油公司在非洲把石油卖给欧洲和美国,但从中东进口石油。世界海上贸易安全对中国非常重要。

  中国海军还是一支水下海军,沿海的军事冲突可能会赢,但是不具有保护海洋领土和保护海上贸易线的能力。海上力量上要实现均势,避免威胁,印度海军有航母之后,泰国海军也买了一艘。

  广州 麦辰
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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