American Combat Units Leave Iraq with Many Matters Unresolved

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 26 August 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Biant. Edited by Alex Brewer.
The U.S. armed forces’ combat units have withdrawn from Iraq, staying “until the end of August” as planned. It has been over seven years and five months since the outbreak of war, and the American military has reached 4,400 casualties. Along with internal conflicts and terrorism, around 100,000 Iraqi civilians have become victims. The withdrawal of the combat units is a huge turning point, but there are still many more matters at hand to deal with before things become stable.

When George W. Bush, the previous president of the United States, found no evidence of the Hussein administration developing weapons of mass destruction, another just cause was needed for the outbreak of war, and it dubiously became democratizing the Middle East. Thereafter, as Bush tried to get a handle on stopping the state of affairs in Iraq from gradually deteriorating, America’s objective changed from democratization to evading the political consequences of the war in Iraq.

President Obama insists on building a relationship of mutual trust with Islamic society and proceeding with the withdrawal from Iraq. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan — where U.S. troops have been reinforced — instead of things changing for the better, diplomacy is still not bearing much fruit, even with peace in the Middle East and anti-Iranian policies.

The political void in Iraq drags on, and even though nearly six months have passed since the parliamentary elections, there are no prospects for a new administration. In 2007, security at the borders had improved quite a bit, but terrorism has once again become prominent, picking at the cracks left by an absence of government.

The Iraqi army and police force, which is in charge of security, is still so inadequately equipped that their army leaders let it out that “America’s support will be needed for another 10 years.” Even after the withdrawal of combat units, the U.S. army in Iraq still stands at little less than 50,000 troops whose most pressing tasks include training the Iraqi army and intelligence gathering, as well as other leftover matters. If there are requests from the Iraqi government, due to emergency combat for example, then America will offer its support. By the time the American army is expected to have completely withdrawn from Iraq, at the end of next year, it is crucial that they make sure there is sufficient security maintenance on the Iraqi side of the border.

As well as being a neighboring country to Iran, Iraq is also one of a series of countries that is abundant in energy resources and part of the Arab emirate confederation (also including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait), and borders various countries on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea such as Syria and Turkey.
Iraq is a geopolitically important country at the heart of the Middle East, and if left in a state of instability, it will go on having a negative impact on the security of the rest of the world.

In America, the weariness of war is strongly felt, but maintaining a framework of support for Iraq is important. If it ensures stability, then the U.S. shouldn’t exclude the option of making a pact with Iraq and leaving a certain number of troops to remain there even after the evacuation deadline.

Resource development has been settled thanks to the influx of foreign capital — the number of foreign corporate executives visiting Iraq is increasing — but the revival of Iraq, with its long blackout periods, feels like it’s going to be a little bit behind schedule. Supporting the revival of Iraq is a matter that concerns the entire international community including Japan and various European and Arab countries.

Then there’s the question of Iraq’s responsibility. In order to facilitate security guarantees and a revival we need a major political power that can find mutual understanding through a give and take relationship, to urgently establish a new administration.


米戦闘部隊 多くの課題残しイラク去る

米軍の戦闘部隊が「8月末まで」の予定通りイラクから撤退した。開戦から7年5カ月余り。米兵の死者は4400人に達し、国内対立やテロも合わせイラクの民間人およそ10万人が犠牲になった。戦闘部隊撤退は大きな節目だが、安定にはなお遠い中で多くの課題を後に残す。

 ブッシュ前米大統領が開戦の大義名分としたフセイン政権による大量破壊兵器開発の物証は見つからず、中東民主化の目標もあいまいになった。その後は、イラク情勢の一段の悪化を抑えるとともに、イラク戦争の政治的な後遺症から抜け出すことに米国の目標は事実上変わった。

 オバマ大統領はイスラム世界との相互信頼関係の構築を唱え、イラクからの撤収を進めた。一方で、米軍を増派したアフガニスタンの情勢は好転せず、中東和平や対イラン政策でも外交の成果はまだ乏しい。

 イラクでは政治空白が長引いている。3月の議会選から半年近くたつのに新政権のメドが立たない。2007年を境に治安はかなり改善したが、政治空白のすき間を突くようにテロが再び目立つようになった。

 治安権限の移譲を受けたイラクの軍・警察の能力はなお不十分で、イラク軍幹部が「あと10年は米軍の支援が要る」と漏らすほどだ。戦闘部隊の撤退後も当面5万人弱の米軍は残り、イラク軍の訓練や情報収集などに当たる。イラク政府の要請があれば、有事の戦闘で支援する備えもとる。来年末の米軍完全撤退の期限までに、イラク側の治安維持能力を整えることが重要な課題になる。

 イラクはイランの隣国であるとともにサウジアラビア、クウェート、アラブ首長国連邦など有力なエネルギー資源産出国に連なり、シリア、トルコなど地中海岸諸国とも隣接する。中東の要に位置する地政学的に重要な国が不安定なままでは、世界の安全保障にも悪影響が続く。

 米国内の厭戦(えんせん)気分は強いが、米国がイラクを継続的に支援する枠組みも重要だ。安定確保に必要なら、イラク側と協定を結んで来年末以降も一定規模の米軍を残す選択肢を排除すべきではない。

 外資の参入による資源開発が決まり、外国企業幹部のイラク訪問も増えてきた半面、長い停電が続くなど復興は遅れ気味だ。イラク復興支援は、日本や欧州諸国、アラブ諸国も含めた国際社会全体の課題である。

 イラク側の責任も問われる。治安確保と復興促進のためにも、主要な政治勢力は互いに譲って合意点を見いだし、早急に新しい政権を発足させる必要がある。
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