Problems in Okinawa

Published in The Kobe Shimbun
(Japan) on 3 September 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Biant. Edited by Alex Brewer.
Through the cooperation of the American and Japanese governments, which are aiming to relocate the Futenma American military air base to Henoko in Nago, a written report stating how the base will be built and positioned in its new location has been completed.

In a joint declaration made in May, when the two governments confirmed that they would be relocating to Henoko, they assumed that by using experts, they would have completed a full examination of whether this relocation was possible by the end of August. They are trying to get it over and done within the time allowed, and from the look of things, the two governments are sticking to what they said.

However, I don’t think we can definitely say the report is totally complete. Although land reclamation will be carried out in the construction, the runway issue — which is the deciding factor in the relocation plan — is stalled between Japan’s proposal of an I-shaped runway and the American’s V-shaped plan which is the present choice. The American government disapproves of the I-shaped runway.

On top of that, the Americans are requesting additional markings along the V-shaped runway so pilots can clearly see where they are going, but there is a feeling that this will only widen the gap between America and Japan.

Planes on the new route will land closer to onshore areas than the existing government had said they would; this will increase the noise pollution in the affected areas and hamper the premise of the original relocation plan. Re-assessing the environmental impact cannot be avoided either. The report shows that prolonged consultations have been had on this matter, but if such a significant change should come to happen at this time, the only thing it will do is heighten the distrust the locals already have.

In the end, the reality of things is that rather than the summary report moving things a step forward, it points out the American’s acceptance of the dawdling of the Naoto Kan administration — an administration concerned about the effect this will have on the Okinawa prefectural governor elections in November.

At the moment, the biggest unresolved problem between America and Japan is Futenma. Even with all the difficulties between the two countries that have been suspended, if we maintain an outlook that the current situation will change, then it still can. However, the reality is that not only are things not moving forward, but moreover, the path forward has become a steep one.

Deputy Governor of Okinawa Yoshiyuki Uehara, who accepted the explanation offered in the government’s written report, stated, “I will always accept that the relocation to Henoko is a matter of extreme difficulty.” Even from these words, you can read between the lines and see Okinawa’s strong resistance to the (central) government going ahead with plans without consulting the prefectural government.

In these circumstances, can we really say that the relocation to Henoko is a realistic plan? It doesn’t look as though the American and Japanese governments are going to be able to get the sympathy of the Okinawa locals, so regardless of how much progress is made in formulating procedures that both governments agree to, it is just not going to come to fruition.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who stated he would follow through with what was said in the joint declaration, has repeatedly spoken about reducing the burden on Okinawa, but there are no signs that he will be a strong leader and make that happen. Even if he postpones any action until after the prefectural elections, how successful will he be? At the end of all his stalling, if he retreats in desperation to the elections as an excuse, he is bound to stray again after them.

Moreover, elections for the representatives of the Democratic Party are even more unclear. Former Chief Secretary Ichiro Ozawa, who is running against Kan, has indicated intentions of a reconsultation between America and Okinawa, since this relationship is imperative to the harmony of America and Japan. However, whether this is a breakthrough or not is still unclear.

It has been hinted at that they might make revisions to their report. If they can’t come to an agreement to at least take another look at the joint declaration, will there be a way to break out of this impasse?


普天間移設報告/頭越しでいくら進めても


米軍普天間飛行場の名護市辺野古崎への移設をめざす日米両政府が、代替施設の工法や配置に関する報告書をまとめた。

 辺野古移設を確認した5月の共同声明では、8月末までに専門家による検討を完了させるとしていた。期限内に協議を終え、見た目には声明に沿って進展した形だ。

 しかし、報告はとても完了といえるものではない。工法は埋め立てとしながら、計画の柱になる滑走路は現行計画のV字形案と、日本が提案したI字形案を併記した。I字形案には米側が難色を示している。

 加えて、米側がV字形滑走路で有視界飛行する際の新たな飛行ルートを求め、双方の溝は逆に広がった感がある。

 新しいルートは従来の政府説明より陸上部に近く、移設計画の前提が崩れて騒音区域が広がる。環境影響評価の見直しも避けられない。報告はこの件を継続協議としたが、今ごろこんな重大な変更が浮上すれば、地元の不信感が高まるだけだ。

 結局、報告書のとりまとめは一歩前進というより、11月の沖縄県知事選への影響を懸念する菅政権の決着先送りを米側が受け入れたことを示す。それが実態だろう。

 いまや普天間問題は日米間最大の懸案である。苦しい先送りであっても事態が動く見通しがあるならまだ分かる。だが、実際は前に進まないだけでなく、道のりはさらに険しくなっている。

 政府から報告書について説明を受けた沖縄県の上原良幸副知事が「移設は極めて困難との認識は変わらない」と述べていた。その言葉からも、頭越しの「進展」に対する沖縄の強い反発が読み取れる。

 この状況で、辺野古移設が本当に現実的な案といえるのかどうか。地元の理解が得られないようでは、日米合意に基づく手続きをいくら進めても移設は実現しない。

 共同声明を踏襲すると言明した菅直人首相は沖縄の負担軽減をと繰り返すが、具体化へ強い指導力を示した形跡はない。知事選後への先送りも、どこまで成算があるのだろう。時間稼ぎの末に苦し紛れの選択に走れば、迷走の再現になりかねない。

 さらに、民主党の代表選が今後を一段と不透明にしている。菅氏と争う小沢一郎前幹事長は、日米同意を前提にしたうえで米国や沖縄と再協議する考えを示した。しかし、打開の道筋は明確ではない。

 報告書は修正にも触れたが、共同声明を見直すぐらいの手を打たないと、袋小路を脱する道は見当たらないのではないか。
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