American Interim Elections: “Change” Fever Vanishes

Published in Asahi
(Japan) on 22 October 2010
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lynn Allmon. Edited by Celeste Hansen.
President Obama, highly esteemed the world over, is losing favor domestically. In the November congressional elections, the Democratic Party, currently in power, is on the defensive. How will they advance reform in light of economic pressure?

Princeton University is a famous college in the eastern part of the United States. Even though the employment rate for graduates of this university is high, students with job-hunting anxieties are not few. "Compared to two years ago, many swing voters will listen to me," a student backing the opposition Republican Party said.

During the 2008 presidential election, a college newspaper survey showed that 80 percent of college students supported President Obama. With the Iraq War in a deadlock and the trust of the international community declining, the financial crisis attacked like a tsunami. There was a large feeling of loss. Then, the future seemed insecure.

Many citizens hung their hopes on Mr. Obama, who called out for change. Next month on the 2nd, all the congressional seats are up for re-election, and it is very likely the Democratic Party will lose seats. Even though the Democratic Party dominates the Senate three to one, the question is whether it will preserve a majority. It will continue to be a neck-to-neck rivalry.

Despite the massive fiscal stimulus, economic conditions are disappointing. With the high unemployment rate, the feeling of many citizens is that it seems unlikely that the Obama administration can make daily life better. Around inauguration, its approval rating was around 70 percent, and now it has fallen to about half that, around 40 percent.

In 2008, the war was a big issue. However, in a recent survey, 20 percent of citizens watching the Afghanistan war did not see an exit. On the other hand, the great concern over economic and unemployment problems has climbed to 60 percent. Inward-facing concerns have been rising.

Large economic problems with roots in the former Bush administration era are present. It is difficult for whomever is president to weather this recession. The health care insurance reform into which President Obama poured a ton of energy can be valued as a historical step forward. However, many of the middle class feel strongly that more effort should be put into unemployment and economic problems.

"Will the American dream die?" is what an unemployed 30-year-old man asked the president. In September, this was one act in a Washington dialogue assembly with a large range of different people. Criticism of President Obama has become an outlet for anxiety and dissatisfaction, and the Democratic Party is struggling with a close game.

In such times, support for the anti-Obama, conservative, citizen-based "tea party" campaign has been spreading. It calls for tax reductions by means of "small government" and destroying the medical insurance reform. To the tea party, the 1950s era American ideal is on the horizon. At that time, the U.S. had overwhelming power in the world, and internally, white society ran the U.S. In addition, there was no fear of 9/11-style terrorism.

However, the world is changing. China and India have been putting great pressure on the U.S. It is hard to believe there will be a return to the golden era of the 1950s. With the overly optimistic tea party's strength increasing in political debates, it does not appear that the outlook is good.

The interim elections are for Congress, not the president. Nevertheless, how will President Obama regain his strength from this stagnation, with a sharp eye on his re-election? I want to maintain a close watch over the remaining ten days.


米中間選挙―「チェンジ」の熱うせて

 世界で評価されるオバマ大統領が国内でふるわない。11月の議会選挙に与党の民主党は守勢である。経済の重圧の下で改革をどう進めるのだろうか。

 米東部の有名校プリンストン大学。就職率が高いこの大学でも、職探しに不安を持つ学生は少なくない。「2年前に比べ、多くの無党派層が耳を傾けてくれる」と、野党・共和党の支援活動をする学生は言う。

 2008年の大統領選挙では、大学新聞の調査で8割の学生がオバマ氏を支持した。イラク戦争で行き詰まり、国際社会の信頼が低下したところへ、金融危機が津波のように襲っていた。大きな喪失感。そして未来への不安。チェンジ(変化)を呼びかけたオバマ氏に多くの国民が期待をかけた。

 来月2日投票の議会中間選挙では、全議席改選の下院で、民主党が多数を失う可能性が高い。3分の1が改選の上院でも民主党が過半数を保てるかどうか。ぎりぎりの争いが続く。

 巨額の財政出動をしたにもかかわらず、景気が思わしくない。失業率が高いまま、オバマ政権で生活が良くなったと思えないのが多くの国民感情だ。就任したときに70%前後あった支持率は、今では40%台半ばに落ちた。

 08年は戦争が大きな争点だった。ところが最近の調査では、出口が見えないアフガニスタン戦争を注視する国民は2割。他方、経済・失業問題が最大の関心事としたのは6割にのぼる。内向き志向が際立っている。

 経済問題の多くはブッシュ前政権時代に端を発している。この不況を乗り切るのは誰が大統領でも難しい。オバマ大統領が力を入れた医療保険改革は歴史的な一歩と評価できる。だが、中間層の多くは経済・失業問題にもっと重きを置くべきだとの思いが強い。

 「アメリカンドリームは息絶えたのか」。失業中の30歳の男性が大統領を問い詰めた。9月にワシントンで開かれた市民との対話集会での一幕だ。不安と不満のはけ口がオバマ氏批判になり、民主党の苦戦を誘っている。

 こうしたなか、反オバマを掲げる保守派の市民運動「ティーパーティー」(茶会)が支持を広げている。「小さな政府」による減税や医療保険改革の破棄を掲げる。茶会には、1950年代のアメリカこそが理想との思いが見える。世界で圧倒的に強く、国内では白人中心に社会が動いていた。9・11のようなテロの心配もなかった。

 だが、世界は変わった。中国やインドが激しく追い上げている。黄金の50年代が戻ってくるとは考えにくい。政策論議が甘い茶会が力を伸ばしても、展望が開けるとも思えない。

 中間選挙は議会の選挙であり、大統領選ではない。とはいえ、オバマ氏は再選をにらみながら停滞からどう巻き返すか。残る10日余りを注視したい。
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