Returning from Asia with a Stricken Spirit, Obama Should Reflect Deeply

Published in Takungpao
(Hong Kong) on 16 November 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ivy Chan. Edited by Hoishan Chan.
Obama, who suffered disappointments from the recent midterm elections, has failed to find solace and self-confidence from his recent Asian tour. Be it from a bilateral or a multilateral standpoint, his trip has failed to accomplish the targeted goals. Not only did America fail to establish the scheme of crushing China’s united front, it has now become boxed into a sore spot. Instead, Obama should at least learn from this trip that the “China card” will not help much in America’s strategy to return to Asia. Considerable adjustments to the foundation of its policy are imperative if the U.S. wants to see the fulfillment of its ambitious dream of establishing American leadership in Asia.

All of this was because America was overconfident. Granted, many countries felt threatened by China and thus hoped that the U.S. could exert greater influence in the Pacific Rim. Upon America’s rallying cry these countries would then gather around America. Moreover, it has a world-class political figure in Obama with his glorious halo, where America came within reach of forging a “chariot of self-interest.” However, America has had an inflated opinion of itself. Obama’s inefficacious tour to Asia has at long last taught Americans that establishing “leadership in Asia” is no easy task.

In contrast, Obama was more relaxed in interviews conducted in India and Indonesia. Nevertheless, both countries were very cautious on the issue of alliance with the United States. India wants to raise their global status through the medium of America, but that doesn’t mean that they are positively disposed to the idea of serving as a tool in America’s balancing against China. On the other hand, Indonesia hopes that they can strengthen their status in ASEAN through the U.S., but at the same time they are careful not to develop an overly intimate relationship with America. Furthermore, they refuse to jump on the anti-China bandwagon despite American pressure. Obama’s “A New Beginning” is but another bounced check following the speech in Cairo.

Obama has returned empty-handed from South Korea and Japan. The highly anticipated South Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA) was unfruitful. During the G-20 and APEC summits, Obama’s appeal to place pressure on the yuan went unanswered. To make matters worse, America was instead besieged by other countries regarding its own currency. America’s dash to print more money, thereby transferring the burden of the crisis onto other countries, was intensely criticized, embarrassing Obama greatly. At all the multilateral and bilateral events on the trip, apart from restating their original viewpoints and positions, the U.S. accomplished very little else of significance. Even the Americans feel ashamed. They acknowledge that the influence America exerts on the world is quickly dwindling and that Obama’s “celebrity effect” is now gone for good.

It is well-known that Obama’s visit to Asia was definitely not an ordinary visit. Rather, it was a vital part in America’s strategy to return to Asia. However, Obama came as a “salesman,” pushing America’s self-interests onto Asia and everything done was done on the basis of maximizing their own advantage and giving little in return. In employing the strategy of divide and conquer in confronting Asian countries, Obama was doomed to fail from the beginning.

Since July 2009, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced that America was going to return to Asia in a high-profile manner, this strategy of theirs has been well under way and in the process of being instituted. Nevertheless, when a closer look is taken at their “return-to-Asia” strategy, several characteristics can be easily spotted: 1) the orientation to exaggerate the need to guard against “the China threat,” 2) the focus on fortifying military intervention, 3) the strengthening of traditional alliances with Japan and South Korea, and the focus on hauling more associates onto their wagon. The recent actions that the U.S. has taken in Asia revolve around the few points mentioned above.

Despite all this, however, Asia remains cooperative and partial hot-spots will by no means affect the general propensity of peaceful development. When cooperating and working with China, many countries realize that rather than constituting a threat, the development of China actually creates more opportunities. In view of this, if America refuses to make significant changes, it will find it difficult to gain approval from Asia. And thus the ambitious American dream of leading Asia will remain nothing but a dream.


「亞洲之行」黯然收場 奧巴馬應深入反思

在中期選舉中失利的奧巴馬並沒有在轟轟烈烈的「亞洲之行」中尋獲安慰和自信,無論從多邊,還是從雙邊的角度來評判,奧巴馬此行都沒有達到預期目標,不但「封殺」中國的「統一戰線」沒有確立起來,反使美國陷入被「圍剿」的困境。反觀此次「亞洲之行」,奧巴馬至少應該明白,「中國牌」無助於美國「重返亞洲」戰略,美國要想如願實施其「領導亞洲」的夢想,恐怕要對政策的基礎作出重大調整。

一切都源於美國「過於自信」。既然各國都抱怨中國的現實威脅,都希望美國能在亞太地區發揮更大作用,那麼美國振臂一呼,便會應者雲集。況且,美國又有奧巴馬世界級政治明星的耀眼光環,在亞洲打造一輛利益戰車似乎唾手可得。但美國確實高估了自己,奧巴馬的「亞洲之行」處處不順,終於令美國認識到「領導亞洲」並不是一件容易的事情。

相對來説,奧巴馬對印度和印尼的訪問心情還算輕鬆。但兩國在與美「結盟」問題均態度謹慎,印度期望通過美國提高自身地位,但未必甘願充當美遏制中國的「支柱」,印尼希望通過美國支持加強其在東盟的地位,但與美的親近也保持分寸,更不願在美的壓力下登上其反華戰車,其「穆斯林新政」不過是繼「開羅演講」後開出的第二張「空頭支票」。

在韓國和日本,奧巴馬可謂是空手而歸。美國人十分期待的「美韓自由貿易協定」流産,G20、APEC峰會,奧巴馬對人民幣匯率施壓的呼籲無人響應,自己反陷入各國的「圍攻」,美國開動印鈔機轉嫁危機的做法受到激烈抨擊,奧巴馬十分尷尬。在所有的多邊和雙邊場合,美國除了重複原有的觀點立場外,幾乎毫無建樹,連美國人自己都感到很沒面子,認為美國對世界的影響力正飛速下滑,奧巴馬的「明星效應」也已一去不復返。

眾所週知,奧巴馬此次「亞洲之行」絕不是一次普通訪問,它是美國實施「重返亞洲」戰略的重要環節。但奧巴馬是以美國自身利益「推銷員」的身份而來,對夥伴「給少取多」,對亞洲各國採取分而治之的對抗思維,失敗已是早已註定。

從二○○九年七月美國國務卿希拉里在東盟地區論壇上高調宣佈美國要「重返亞洲」以來,美國的「重返亞洲戰略」一路高歌,已進入實施階段。認真分析美國的「重返亞洲」戰略,不難看出其以下特點:一是以渲染和防範「中國威脅」為出發點;二是在強化「軍事介入」為核心;三是在加強美日、美韓傳統同盟關係的同時,把更多新夥伴拉到自己的戰車上。美國近期在亞洲地區採取的所有動作都是圍繞以上重點展開的。

但亞洲終歸是合作的亞洲,局部熱點並不能改變亞洲和平發展的總體趨勢,在與中國的合作中,各國看到的更多是中國發展所帶來的合作機遇,而不是威脅。看來,美國如果不作出重大改變,很難獲得亞洲的接納,其「領導亞洲」的雄心壯志更無疑於癡人説夢。
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