Only Business
Published in Rossiyskaya Gazeta
(Russia) on 19 January 2011
by Vladislav Vorobiev (link to
original)
On Tuesday, the four-day visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao to the U.S. will begin. It is important to note that the forthcoming talks will be an important event in economics for the year 2011.
At the same time, all major statistical indicators show that Washington will have to get used to playing the role of China’s slave.
There is no doubt that Beijing has very carefully chosen the time for Comrade Hu Jintao’s trip to Washington. The always calm Chinese have clearly decided to oppose the cowboy temperament of the Americans with subtle statements and carefully chosen moves to show they can always overcome their opponents with simple numerical superiority and not by dry statistical measures. In this case, they have shown themselves to be more expressive than any diplomatic maneuvers.
Without a doubt, Beijing has explicitly shown Washington that their arriving guest is a leader of a country without whose financial help the American way of life simply could not exist. In other words, the world’s largest debtor is receiving guests from its main creditor. Obviously the Chinese will not tell this directly to the Americans on an official level, but the statistics do not allow for any doubt on the matter.
The important fact here is not the direct Chinese influence in the American economy through its purchases of federal debt, which are approaching a trillion dollars. According to the latest data from experts, in 2015 China may surpass the U.S. in industrial production volume and become the world leader in that area. Moreover, in 2012 the Chinese stock market may surpass America’s in market capitalization. It cannot be ignored that in three or four years the world may see the arrival of the world’s new economic leader. It is difficult to refrain from bringing up yet another figure from the latest Chinese economic statistics. In the past five years, 639,000 kilometers of roadways have been built, and of these 33,000 are highways.
What could the Americans offer to counter these dizzying statistics? Practically nothing. Literally in the two days before Hu Jintao’s visit, it was announced that the federal debts of the U.S. have skyrocketed to $14 trillion. Washington, it seems, has not even attempted to convince voters that the time has come for them to tighten their belts. The White House understands this clearly; any such suggestion would be tantamount to the end of any re-election plans for Obama. On the contrary, Americans would be eagerly pondering who would be the next to take the position.
According to estimates by experts, 2011 in the U.S. will see a record number people losing their homes because of outstanding mortgage debt. It is expected that in the next 12 months 1.2 million families will lose the roof over their heads.
And with this we return to the latest visit. Armed with these excellent statistics, the president of China does not need to play games. He has admitted outright the reasons for coming to Washington. On the eve of the visit, Hu Jintao said in an interview with the American media that China is willing to take all necessary measures to see that the yuan replaces the dollar in the international arena. It is true that the Chinese leader has somewhat calmed Americans by saying that this “will be a fairly long process.” In response, the U.S. Department of Commerce has admitted that this year it has given priority to China in its list of the main economic competitors of America.
All of this has of course been stated with peaceful smiles. In addition, Hu Jintao can be certain that his visit to the U.S. will increase the level of mutual trust between the two countries. He also added that both sides “should abandon the zero-sum Cold War mentality,” and “respect each other's choice of development path.”
It’s true that history repeats itself, and as written in Chinese newspapers, the visit of Hu Jintao to Washington is more similar to an exchange of ultimatums. For example, the Chinese have presented an entire list of things that the Americans must do for the sake of their partnership with their main creditor. Without saying anything concrete, in his interview Hu Jintao spoke of both sides taking reasonable positions, about building trust, about not sticking to old mentalities and about respect of each side’s chosen paths; it has become clear that Washington simply has no other choice.
What would happen in the other case, Beijing is not willing to say aloud. However, it is worth remembering what happened on Jan. 11. At that time in Beijing, during the visit of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, photographs of a secret military facility suddenly appeared on Chinese websites, where a new fifth generation J-20 fighter prototype completed an 18-minute test flight. There is no doubt that in three or four years this prototype aircraft will enter service in the armed forces of China.
Of course, during the Chinese president’s visit to Washington, no one is going to show muscles. Furthermore, the discussions are definitely being carried out in a friendly atmosphere. The dollar is not getting stronger from this, but the yuan is continuing its ascent up the financial Mount Olympus.
At the same time, all major statistical indicators show that Washington will have to get used to playing the role of China’s slave.
There is no doubt that Beijing has very carefully chosen the time for Comrade Hu Jintao’s trip to Washington. The always calm Chinese have clearly decided to oppose the cowboy temperament of the Americans with subtle statements and carefully chosen moves to show they can always overcome their opponents with simple numerical superiority and not by dry statistical measures. In this case, they have shown themselves to be more expressive than any diplomatic maneuvers.
Without a doubt, Beijing has explicitly shown Washington that their arriving guest is a leader of a country without whose financial help the American way of life simply could not exist. In other words, the world’s largest debtor is receiving guests from its main creditor. Obviously the Chinese will not tell this directly to the Americans on an official level, but the statistics do not allow for any doubt on the matter.
The important fact here is not the direct Chinese influence in the American economy through its purchases of federal debt, which are approaching a trillion dollars. According to the latest data from experts, in 2015 China may surpass the U.S. in industrial production volume and become the world leader in that area. Moreover, in 2012 the Chinese stock market may surpass America’s in market capitalization. It cannot be ignored that in three or four years the world may see the arrival of the world’s new economic leader. It is difficult to refrain from bringing up yet another figure from the latest Chinese economic statistics. In the past five years, 639,000 kilometers of roadways have been built, and of these 33,000 are highways.
What could the Americans offer to counter these dizzying statistics? Practically nothing. Literally in the two days before Hu Jintao’s visit, it was announced that the federal debts of the U.S. have skyrocketed to $14 trillion. Washington, it seems, has not even attempted to convince voters that the time has come for them to tighten their belts. The White House understands this clearly; any such suggestion would be tantamount to the end of any re-election plans for Obama. On the contrary, Americans would be eagerly pondering who would be the next to take the position.
According to estimates by experts, 2011 in the U.S. will see a record number people losing their homes because of outstanding mortgage debt. It is expected that in the next 12 months 1.2 million families will lose the roof over their heads.
And with this we return to the latest visit. Armed with these excellent statistics, the president of China does not need to play games. He has admitted outright the reasons for coming to Washington. On the eve of the visit, Hu Jintao said in an interview with the American media that China is willing to take all necessary measures to see that the yuan replaces the dollar in the international arena. It is true that the Chinese leader has somewhat calmed Americans by saying that this “will be a fairly long process.” In response, the U.S. Department of Commerce has admitted that this year it has given priority to China in its list of the main economic competitors of America.
All of this has of course been stated with peaceful smiles. In addition, Hu Jintao can be certain that his visit to the U.S. will increase the level of mutual trust between the two countries. He also added that both sides “should abandon the zero-sum Cold War mentality,” and “respect each other's choice of development path.”
It’s true that history repeats itself, and as written in Chinese newspapers, the visit of Hu Jintao to Washington is more similar to an exchange of ultimatums. For example, the Chinese have presented an entire list of things that the Americans must do for the sake of their partnership with their main creditor. Without saying anything concrete, in his interview Hu Jintao spoke of both sides taking reasonable positions, about building trust, about not sticking to old mentalities and about respect of each side’s chosen paths; it has become clear that Washington simply has no other choice.
What would happen in the other case, Beijing is not willing to say aloud. However, it is worth remembering what happened on Jan. 11. At that time in Beijing, during the visit of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, photographs of a secret military facility suddenly appeared on Chinese websites, where a new fifth generation J-20 fighter prototype completed an 18-minute test flight. There is no doubt that in three or four years this prototype aircraft will enter service in the armed forces of China.
Of course, during the Chinese president’s visit to Washington, no one is going to show muscles. Furthermore, the discussions are definitely being carried out in a friendly atmosphere. The dollar is not getting stronger from this, but the yuan is continuing its ascent up the financial Mount Olympus.