American Rook Move
The yearly Narcotics Report* delivered by the U.S. Department of State gives Bulgaria such a positive evaluation that everyone involved — Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, U.S. Ambassador James Warlick, Deputy Prime Minister Tsvetanov and Customs Agency Director Tanov — gathered for a press conference in the midst of the break for the Bulgarian national holiday [March 3]. Only Minister of Finance Djankov, who is currently in the States, wasn’t present.
The 2011 Narcotics Report is different from other political documents of this nature, which are usually more balanced, in terms of positive and negative feedback. Most reports issued thus far start by acknowledging the progress made and then follow with presenting the points of weakness and the problem areas. The second part, the problem areas, is what the opposition loves to address. Typically, the negative feedback includes facts that even those familiar with the well-hidden areas of Bulgarian politics are not aware. However, the 2011 Narcotics Report provides little criticism and few uncomfortable facts. Among the few available are some remarks about the way our Customs operates, but this a complicated subject requiring a separate discussion.
Is it possible that the report was influenced by the perspective of an American diplomat in close relations with Prime Minister Borisov and Deputy Prime Minister Tsvetanov? This is an interesting question, the answer to which, I believe, is NO. Having in mind the way the U.S. administration works, no employee would risk getting involved in such a hoax. Other concerns are at stake here. The U.S. interest — and to some degree, the interest of Western Europe — is what we need to keep in mind when analyzing the report on anti-drug control. The efforts, the operational costs and the workforce resources that each country dedicates to fighting illegal trafficking are seen and evaluated primarily in light of the U.S.
The data published and the examples mentioned in the report show that our Ministry of the Interior is fully committed to supporting the American administration, especially the Drug Enforcement Administration. The report clearly indicates that the Ministry of the Interior currently conducts investigations on signals received from the U.S. administration, and it provides detailed feedback on what was uncovered. In the past, that was not a common practice, because illicit drug trafficking used to be a good source of income for some of our “special” agents.
As a matter of fact, the U.S. has been supportive toward the Ministry of the Interior since the current Bulgarian government took office. The U.S. has obvious reasons for being friendly. We have been very active in the fight against heroin contraband and even more determined in preventing cocaine smuggling. Our efforts are in complete harmony with American interests. A while ago, the U.S. also welcomed the crackdown on fake money circulation, which was one of the major issues that helped Borisov win the trust of the American government. This is a good strategy for winning allies, because whoever has the support of the U.S. will most likely enjoy significant political benefits.
In terms of foreign policy, the most influential EU countries — the U.K., Germany and Holland — traditionally express solidarity with the U.S. The impact on domestic politics is also substantial. In the political chess game, having U.S. support is equivalent to having the rook’s line of attack open — the adversary would have a hard time trying to cross it. Since the Bulgarian parties of the left have never enjoyed the cordiality of the U.S., the situation presents them with a serious challenge, but the right faces an even bigger challenge.
Although the report praises Bulgaria’s consistency in fighting organized crime, it does not clarify the U.S. position regarding Borisov’s anti-mafia operation, Octopus. When the operation was first announced, Americans promised serious support, consisting of facts and evidence delivered from their investigations. Still, they did not live up to their promises, and we could only try to guess why.
In discussing American interests, it is important to note the position of anti-drug control in the big picture. Do politicians overseas see it as more important than the political stability of the country? What if we have elections this fall? What if the elections trigger the chaotic formation of coalitions and even lead to another election? Isn’t that also a serious risk? The Balkan region is still quite unpredictable. Let’s just take a look at the protests and the political conflicts in Romania, Serbia and Greece. Let’s now add to these issues the situation in the Middle East and North Africa. ...
Regional stability and energy concerns go hand-in-hand with drug-trafficking control. I’m sure Americans would be pleased if our prime minister shows them even more affection, with “energetic” action toward the possible Belene nuclear power plant, or even better, toward the future of the South Stream gas pipeline. Even if he were willing to please the Americans on energy issues, the prime minister has a serious deterrent: He knows what will happen if the Russians decide to spend a couple million on negative PR against him.
The report expresses strong concerns about the diminishing quantity of illegal drugs seized on our borders. It is worth it to dig deeper and take a look at the reasons behind the decline. First of all, Bulgarian Customs have put a lot of effort into combating cigarette smuggling. Whether they are effective in doing so is another question; nevertheless, the resources galvanized for the cigarette fight are at the expense of combating drug trafficking.
Second, our new government made plenty of errors while restructuring the anti-drug unit of law enforcement, which used to be one of our best-performing entities. A resource that cannot be easily retrieved was knocked down. Additionally, the overall quantity of heroin being transported toward Western Europe has diminished significantly. Research shows that big markets, such as the U.K., do not consume as much heroin as they used to. The poor crop harvest in Afghanistan is one of the reasons.
And finally, heroin trafficking has found new channels that bypass the old Turkey-Bulgaria-Serbia route. Although all these factors have significant impact on statistical data, the amount of seized heroin is still the primary criterion for success in anti-drug trafficking.
Now let's talk about Bulgarian interests. The income for the Bulgarian budget derived from the excise duty on goods — primarily cigarettes and fuel — has suffered significant losses in recent years. Illegal cigarette contraband has gained momentum, and we have to reorganize our resources in accordance with the new reality, even if that hurts the anti-drug efforts. Of course, budget concerns are not the only ones to be taken into consideration when we discuss drug trafficking. Social risks are also involved. The level of drug addiction in Bulgaria, however, is not alarming; therefore, focusing our attention on other issues makes sense.
It is my belief that some of the data in the Department of State report are questionable. For instance, the report indicates that 300,000 are drug-addicted in Bulgaria. The definition of being addicted should include those who consume drugs on an everyday basis, not students and young people who often just give it a try, or those who use drugs only once in awhile. The number that Americans consider to be accurate is absurd, if we look at it in light of the latest demographic data. According to the preliminary results of the 2011 census, we have around 7.2 to 7.3 million Bulgarians currently living in the country. As we consider drugs, we could easily disregard the population older than 40 or 45 — part of a generation unfamiliar with drugs. After we pull them out of the picture, the number of people who could possibly be addicted shrinks to 3-4 million. Therefore, 300,000 represents about 10 percent of the people who are under the age of 40. This percentage is quite high and, if true, would actually set a world record. I simply do not believe it to be accurate.
Americans took data from agencies and organizations that have their reasons to overstate the number of drug-addicted in Bulgaria. Precisely because this figure is not that high, it is in our interest to give priority to the budget and fix the losses it experiences from reduced excise duty revenues. Even corruption is less important than that. Combating corruption will be a long process; it will most likely take years. The losses from excise duties, though, should be addressed immediately. We should invest all available resources — people, equipment, organizational capacity — in fighting the black market and excise duty violations. If we fail to do so, the repercussions may be devastating.
The problem we currently face with cigarette smuggling is similar to what was happening in the former Yugoslavia in the beginning of the ‘90s, when they were under embargo. It is also reminiscent of the Prohibition era in the United States. We need to prevent criminal structures involved in cigarette smuggling from acquiring more financial power, because that will endanger our banking system and trade relations, which have recently begun to normalize.
* Translator’s Note: 2011 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report
The 2011 Narcotics Report is different from other political documents of this nature, which are usually more balanced, in terms of positive and negative feedback. Most reports issued thus far start by acknowledging the progress made and then follow with presenting the points of weakness and the problem areas. The second part, the problem areas, is what the opposition loves to address. Typically, the negative feedback includes facts that even those familiar with the well-hidden areas of Bulgarian politics are not aware. However, the 2011 Narcotics Report provides little criticism and few uncomfortable facts. Among the few available are some remarks about the way our Customs operates, but this a complicated subject requiring a separate discussion.
Is it possible that the report was influenced by the perspective of an American diplomat in close relations with Prime Minister Borisov and Deputy Prime Minister Tsvetanov? This is an interesting question, the answer to which, I believe, is NO. Having in mind the way the U.S. administration works, no employee would risk getting involved in such a hoax. Other concerns are at stake here. The U.S. interest — and to some degree, the interest of Western Europe — is what we need to keep in mind when analyzing the report on anti-drug control. The efforts, the operational costs and the workforce resources that each country dedicates to fighting illegal trafficking are seen and evaluated primarily in light of the U.S.
The data published and the examples mentioned in the report show that our Ministry of the Interior is fully committed to supporting the American administration, especially the Drug Enforcement Administration. The report clearly indicates that the Ministry of the Interior currently conducts investigations on signals received from the U.S. administration, and it provides detailed feedback on what was uncovered. In the past, that was not a common practice, because illicit drug trafficking used to be a good source of income for some of our “special” agents.
As a matter of fact, the U.S. has been supportive toward the Ministry of the Interior since the current Bulgarian government took office. The U.S. has obvious reasons for being friendly. We have been very active in the fight against heroin contraband and even more determined in preventing cocaine smuggling. Our efforts are in complete harmony with American interests. A while ago, the U.S. also welcomed the crackdown on fake money circulation, which was one of the major issues that helped Borisov win the trust of the American government. This is a good strategy for winning allies, because whoever has the support of the U.S. will most likely enjoy significant political benefits.
In terms of foreign policy, the most influential EU countries — the U.K., Germany and Holland — traditionally express solidarity with the U.S. The impact on domestic politics is also substantial. In the political chess game, having U.S. support is equivalent to having the rook’s line of attack open — the adversary would have a hard time trying to cross it. Since the Bulgarian parties of the left have never enjoyed the cordiality of the U.S., the situation presents them with a serious challenge, but the right faces an even bigger challenge.
Although the report praises Bulgaria’s consistency in fighting organized crime, it does not clarify the U.S. position regarding Borisov’s anti-mafia operation, Octopus. When the operation was first announced, Americans promised serious support, consisting of facts and evidence delivered from their investigations. Still, they did not live up to their promises, and we could only try to guess why.
In discussing American interests, it is important to note the position of anti-drug control in the big picture. Do politicians overseas see it as more important than the political stability of the country? What if we have elections this fall? What if the elections trigger the chaotic formation of coalitions and even lead to another election? Isn’t that also a serious risk? The Balkan region is still quite unpredictable. Let’s just take a look at the protests and the political conflicts in Romania, Serbia and Greece. Let’s now add to these issues the situation in the Middle East and North Africa. ...
Regional stability and energy concerns go hand-in-hand with drug-trafficking control. I’m sure Americans would be pleased if our prime minister shows them even more affection, with “energetic” action toward the possible Belene nuclear power plant, or even better, toward the future of the South Stream gas pipeline. Even if he were willing to please the Americans on energy issues, the prime minister has a serious deterrent: He knows what will happen if the Russians decide to spend a couple million on negative PR against him.
The report expresses strong concerns about the diminishing quantity of illegal drugs seized on our borders. It is worth it to dig deeper and take a look at the reasons behind the decline. First of all, Bulgarian Customs have put a lot of effort into combating cigarette smuggling. Whether they are effective in doing so is another question; nevertheless, the resources galvanized for the cigarette fight are at the expense of combating drug trafficking.
Second, our new government made plenty of errors while restructuring the anti-drug unit of law enforcement, which used to be one of our best-performing entities. A resource that cannot be easily retrieved was knocked down. Additionally, the overall quantity of heroin being transported toward Western Europe has diminished significantly. Research shows that big markets, such as the U.K., do not consume as much heroin as they used to. The poor crop harvest in Afghanistan is one of the reasons.
And finally, heroin trafficking has found new channels that bypass the old Turkey-Bulgaria-Serbia route. Although all these factors have significant impact on statistical data, the amount of seized heroin is still the primary criterion for success in anti-drug trafficking.
Now let's talk about Bulgarian interests. The income for the Bulgarian budget derived from the excise duty on goods — primarily cigarettes and fuel — has suffered significant losses in recent years. Illegal cigarette contraband has gained momentum, and we have to reorganize our resources in accordance with the new reality, even if that hurts the anti-drug efforts. Of course, budget concerns are not the only ones to be taken into consideration when we discuss drug trafficking. Social risks are also involved. The level of drug addiction in Bulgaria, however, is not alarming; therefore, focusing our attention on other issues makes sense.
It is my belief that some of the data in the Department of State report are questionable. For instance, the report indicates that 300,000 are drug-addicted in Bulgaria. The definition of being addicted should include those who consume drugs on an everyday basis, not students and young people who often just give it a try, or those who use drugs only once in awhile. The number that Americans consider to be accurate is absurd, if we look at it in light of the latest demographic data. According to the preliminary results of the 2011 census, we have around 7.2 to 7.3 million Bulgarians currently living in the country. As we consider drugs, we could easily disregard the population older than 40 or 45 — part of a generation unfamiliar with drugs. After we pull them out of the picture, the number of people who could possibly be addicted shrinks to 3-4 million. Therefore, 300,000 represents about 10 percent of the people who are under the age of 40. This percentage is quite high and, if true, would actually set a world record. I simply do not believe it to be accurate.
Americans took data from agencies and organizations that have their reasons to overstate the number of drug-addicted in Bulgaria. Precisely because this figure is not that high, it is in our interest to give priority to the budget and fix the losses it experiences from reduced excise duty revenues. Even corruption is less important than that. Combating corruption will be a long process; it will most likely take years. The losses from excise duties, though, should be addressed immediately. We should invest all available resources — people, equipment, organizational capacity — in fighting the black market and excise duty violations. If we fail to do so, the repercussions may be devastating.
The problem we currently face with cigarette smuggling is similar to what was happening in the former Yugoslavia in the beginning of the ‘90s, when they were under embargo. It is also reminiscent of the Prohibition era in the United States. We need to prevent criminal structures involved in cigarette smuggling from acquiring more financial power, because that will endanger our banking system and trade relations, which have recently begun to normalize.
* Translator’s Note: 2011 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report
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