America’s Middle East Policy Taking Fire from Both Sides

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 24 May 2011
by Kuo Chenlung (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Michelle Deeter. Edited by Derek Ha.
On May 19, President Barack Obama gave an important speech about America's Middle East policy to the State Department. The speech was not released on America’s evening prime time, but rather at a time more suitable for viewers in the Middle East and North Africa. The State Department even made a fuss about immediately translating the text into Arabic and Farsi.

There were two parts to Obama’s speech: First, he praised the Arab Spring; second, he established the conditions under which Israel and Palestine can create a lasting solution. Even though he spoke eloquently, he was challenged by two people — one who was already dead, and one who was about to meet him.

Osama bin Laden had been exhorting people to take up arms for the past several years. He wanted to remove the villains and dictators who cooperate with America and Europe and revitalize the true beliefs of Islam. The results of the Arab Spring seem to correspond very well to his exhortations. However, al-Qaida and America responded in similar ways; neither party expected these events to happen, neither party had prepared to deal with them after they happened and both were marginalized during the event.

In the week before bin Laden was killed, he made a recording that was placed on al-Qaida’s official website the day before Obama made his speech. During the 11-minute online discussion, he lavishly praised the people of Tunisia and Egypt. Yet, interestingly, he did not mention the civil war in Libya, the crackdown in Syria or Yemen’s political deadlock.

Bin Laden was not cut off from the rest of the world; he had satellite television and watched Al Jazeera. Still, he did not know how to comment on the revolution in Libya. Moammar Gadafhi was his rival. Therefore, bin Laden should have been happy to see him forced to step down. At the same time, the temporary government was receiving help from Western military forces, something which bin Laden had always fiercely opposed. Bin Laden warned the leaders of the uprisings that there was a historical opportunity in front of them. They could quench their desire for liberation, but there was also a possibility that they would stray from the path, which would cause the West to dominate the area.

The biggest criticism against America during the Arab Spring was its double standards. Why did it send troops to intervene in Libya but not Syria? Why did it not condemn the crackdown in Bahrain whilst condemning the crackdown in Yemen? Obama defended his decision in the speech, emphasizing that America’s values and those manifested in the Arab Spring were the same. Even though Obama said that the U.S. “cannot prevent every injustice perpetrated by a regime against its people,” he also said the United States was willing to provide economic assistance, reduce foreign debt for countries that experienced revolutions and talk to the International Monetary Fund and World Bank about creating a large aid plan for the Middle East similar to the Marshall Plan.

Yet it was strange that Obama did not mention Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia represents the archetype of all autocratic Arab countries, yet it is one of America’s most important allies. Thus, America has to put its interests before its values. After Egypt’s former president Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down during the Jasmine Revolution, the Saudis clearly learned that they could not trust America.

Where Obama discussed the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, his stance was also one of pragmatism and helplessness. Obama did not have ambitious plans for peace talks — his Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, stepped down as he realized there was nothing he could do. Mitchell resigned before Obama’s speech and announced that the government should call for a state based on the 1967 borders as part of its solution for Israel. The goal is to curry favor with the Palestinians. Fortunately, when the United Nations vetoes the resolution to create a Palestinian state, it will not seem like America was favoring Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, however, was not buying it. On the next day, when he attended a meeting at the White House, he vociferously challenged Obama and said there was no way Israel could accept such a proposal. Returning Golan Heights and giving up the right to put guards on the Jordan River would poke a hole in Israel’s security.

During the Arab Spring, Israel took a look around its borders. What it was most worried about was that Egypt to the west had already become reactionary. In a complete reversal from the past and a rejection of Israel’s goodwill, it was encouraging Hamas and Fatah to make a reconciliation pact. To the east, Syria was dealing with the furious protests of its populace, and President Bashar al-Assad’s administration was likely to create disturbances in order to shift domestic attention from the protests.

Netanyahu believes that Obama, who studied at an Islamic school when he was small, is far too naive. Just before the latter’s speech began, Netanyahu called Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and expressed his fierce opposition. Netanyahu and Clinton fought about the issue until the minute before Obama’s speech. Israel has always been promoting more communication, but it was incapable of changing Obama’s decision.

If bin Laden used a violent, terrorist method to give the Americans a wake-up call, then Netanyahu is using his Jewish influence to permeate the American political system. The highlight of this visit, besides actively requesting an opportunity to speak to Congress, was his attendance of the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. As they all depend on Jewish people to provide donations, American politicians who were invited did not dare miss the occasion.

Obama is taking fire from both sides, and it is not just a part of his imagination. Ultimately, he is unable to reduce the political influence of Jewish people. During his remarks on Sunday, Obama said that the 1967 borders can only be agreed on via negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. Netanyahu immediately praised these words. Secretly, the White House was livid, yet could not react.

Meanwhile, Obama really needs to prevent bin Laden’s dream from living on. Some of the leaders of countries involved in the Arab Spring — Egypt’s current leadership, for example — will be succeeded by radical Islamic groups. Furthermore, al-Qaida is continuing to attack, and Pakistan’s naval base was attacked by terrorists on May 22. This serves as the best reminder of what Obama really needs to do.


美中东政策 两面受敌

欧巴马十九日在美国国务院,发表了重要中东政策演说,时间不是通常的美国晚间黄金时段,反而是方便让中东与北非等阿拉伯观众收看,国务院还煞有介事的安排阿拉伯语、波斯语的立即翻译。
 欧巴马的演说有两个部分,一是肯定赞扬阿拉伯之春,另一部分则是设定以色列与巴勒斯坦最终解决方案的前提,但即使他雄辩滔滔,词藻华丽,却受到两个人的挑战,一个已死,一个马上要与他见面。
 奥萨玛.宾拉登多年来,不断鼓吹人民应该奋起,赶走与欧美西方狼狈为奸的独裁者,恢复伊斯兰真正的信仰。阿拉伯之春的结果似乎与他鼓吹的相符,但其实基地组织与美国都是一样,事先既没有预料,事发后也完全没有准备,在运动中完全被边缘化。
 被击毙前一周,宾拉登录制了一段录音,赶在欧巴马发表演说前一天,发表在基地的官方网站上,在十一分钟的网络谈话中,他大为赞赏突尼斯与埃及的人民,但特别的是,却没有提及正在发生的利比亚内战,叙利亚镇压,以及也门的政治僵局。
 宾拉登不是与世隔绝的人,他有卫星电视,看得到半岛电视台,但是他却不知道要如何评论利比亚的革命;卡扎菲是他的死对头,应该很高兴看到他倒台,可是班加西临时政府援引西方军队,这却是宾拉登向来强烈反对的。宾拉登警告那些领导群众奋起的人,前面有历史的机运,可以从欲望中解放自己,但也有严峻的歧路,会导致西方的宰制。
 在阿拉伯之春中,对美国最大的批评是双重标准,为什么军事介入利比亚,不介入叙利亚?为什么不谴责巴林镇压,要谴责也门镇压?欧巴马演说中辩护,强调美国的价值与阿拉伯之春中所显现的是相符的,美国不可能介入所有「政权对人民犯下不公正的事」,但是愿意提供经济援助,减免革命成功国家外债,也将联合国际货币基金与世界银行,提出类似马歇尔计画与东欧援助的大型援助计画。
 但是欧巴马演讲中,奇特的是完全没提到沙特阿拉伯,沙乌地代表的是所有专制阿拉伯国家的原型,但是它又是美国最重要的盟邦,美国必须把利益置于价值之上,而在这次茉莉革命中,从埃及总统穆巴拉克被逼下台,沙乌地认清楚美国无法被信赖。
 欧巴马的以巴和平演讲部分,同样也是出于现实无奈,并不是他有宏远的和谈计画,他的中东特使米契尔才刚因事无可为,演讲前辞职,他宣布要以一九六七年以前的边界,为未来以巴最终解决方案的前提,目的在讨好巴勒斯坦人,好在九月否决联合国巴人建国决议案时,不会显得美国是偏向以色列。
 但纳坦雅胡却不买帐,他在第二天白宫会面时,当面对欧巴马呛声,表示没办法接受,归还戈兰高地与约旦边界守卫权,让以色列的安全洞开。
 在阿拉伯之春中,以色列环顾四周,最为担心,西边的埃及已经变天,外交政策一反过去与以色列亲善,反而极力促成哈玛斯与法塔达成团结协议,东边的叙利亚面临民众愤怒抗议,阿塞德政府为转移国内注意力,可能制造事端。
 纳坦雅胡认为,小时候读过穆斯林学校的欧巴马太天真了,在发表演说前,他打电话给国务卿希拉蕊强烈抗议,两人在电话中吵了起来,直到欧巴马演讲前一分钟,以色列都一直在游说沟通,可是还是没有办法改变欧巴马的决定。
 如果宾拉登是用恐怖暴力的手段,给美国人当头棒喝,纳塔雅胡就是利用犹太人的影响力,渗透进入美国政治系统,他这次来美国,除了主动要求在国会联席会议演说,重头戏是参加一年一度的美以公共事务委员会(AIPAC)年会,由于仰赖犹太人捐款,所有受邀的美国政治人物,都不敢不来。
 欧巴马两面受敌,不是存于想象而已,毕竟他还是挡不住犹太人的政治影响力,在周日年会致词时,欧巴马表示所谓一九六七年边界需要由以色列与巴人协商而定,纳坦雅胡立即表示赞佩,私底下白宫气得牙痒痒的,无法发作。
 而在另一方面,他更要防止宾拉登怨念不死,部分阿拉伯之春国家的领导权,譬如现在的埃及,会旁落到激进伊斯兰组织手上,而基地的军事攻击仍然猛烈持续,巴基斯坦海军基地周一被恐怖份子攻击,就是最好的提醒。
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