Obama’s Journey to Re-election

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 10 June 2011
by Wang Xiaobo (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Cheechen Chan. Edited by Louis Standish.
The history that was made when Obama was sworn in as the first black president of the United States is still vivid to many. Today, he wants to create history yet again. But this time, the project that he is undertaking is far more difficult than the previous one.

The great history which Obama seeks to create is to become the first president of the U.S. since the Second World War to get reelected even with a rising unemployment rate. But the fact is that since Roosevelt Jr.,* no U.S. president has been successfully reelected when the unemployment rate has been as high as 7.2 percent.

In the past few weeks, whether it is the booming of the manufacturing industry, factory purchase orders, consumer confidence or housing and so on, America’s economic indicators clearly point to a slowing down of economic recovery. The jobs report for May lists the unemployment rate as high as 9.1 percent and the number of employed persons dropping to its lowest point in the past eight months brings no relief whatsoever.

What is more disturbing is America’s attitude in dealing with the worsening unemployment. In the past, whenever there was a drop in the unemployment rate, the White House would immediately publish a press release indicating that the job market was surging under the recovery policy of the Obama administration. Unlike now where Obama would give tons of excuses whenever the unemployment rate rises. He remarked, “This economy took a big hit… It’s just like if you had a bad illness, if you got hit by a truck, it’s going to take a while for you to mend. And that’s what’s happened to our economy.” In other words, instead of coming up with a new strategy, Obama is merely pleading for his people to be patient.

On the other hand, there has also been a drastic change in the Fed’s attitude. Back in 2008, when the U.S. was plunged into recession due to the financial crisis, the Fed injected $2 trillion to stabilize the market as well as to restore the economy; this includes the $ 600 billion which will be coming to an end by June. But now the Fed is no longer willing to hand out any more money. Bernanke, the Chairman of the Fed, stated that the economic growth of the U.S. is lower than expected but they cannot look to monetary policy as a panacea. Bernanke was no doubt declaring to everyone that there would not be a third round of Quantitative Easing (QE3).

In Congress, prominent members of both the Democratic and Republican Parties promised to increase employment, but their actions run contrary to their words. On the one hand, the Republican attempts to force the Obama administration to cut down spending by threatening to raise the upper boundary of the national debt. On the other hand, the Democrats are deeply involved in the political fight with the Republicans in the name of deficit reduction.

There are 17 more months before the next presidential election. Should Obama carry on with this attitude, he would very likely then be added to ranks of the jobless.

*Editor’s Note: Roosevelt Jr. refers to American president Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who was a cousin of previous president Theodore Roosevelt, not his son.


歐巴馬的連任之路
2011-06-10 工商時報 【王曉伯】

 當年歐巴馬入主白宮,成為美國首位黑人總統,締造歷史新猷。如今,他還想再創歷史,只不過這一回的工程遠較上回艱難。

 歐巴馬所要創造的歷史大業是要成為美國自二次戰後以來,首位在失業率高漲的情況下仍然能夠連任成功的總統。事實上,美國自小羅斯福以來,就沒有一位總統能在失業率高於7.2%的情況下連任成功。

 過去幾周來,美國陸續發表的經濟指標,無論是製造業景氣、工廠訂單、消費者信心、房屋銷售等,都在在顯示經濟復甦明顯減緩。最令人擔心的就是5月就業報告,失業率升至9.1%,就業人口增加人數卻是降至8個月來的最低。

 但是更令人感到不安的是美國政府面對失業惡化的態度。過去,只要失業率下降,白宮立刻就會發表聲明,表示在歐巴馬政府的振興對策下,就業市場正在強勁復甦之中。如今,失業率上揚,歐巴馬卻是推責卸任。他表示:「美國經濟曾經遭到重創,就像有人得了重病,或是被卡車撞了,一定需要時間來康復,美國的經濟就是這樣。」歐巴馬等於是要求人民忍耐,而不是拿出新的振興對策。

 至於聯準會(Fed),態度也與2008年時丕變。當時美國因金融風暴陷入衰退,Fed投入2兆美元來安定市場與振興經濟,其中包括將在6月底結束的6千億美元。但是現今Fed卻是不肯再掏錢出來。Fed主席柏南克日前表示,美國經濟復甦不如預期,但是不能指望貨幣政策是萬靈丹。柏南克無疑是昭告天下,不會再有第3波的量化寬鬆行動(QE3)了。

 在國會方面,民主與共和兩黨的袞袞諸公儘管信誓旦旦地表示要振興就業,可是在做法上卻是背道而馳。共和黨以提高國債上限做為要脅,企圖逼迫歐巴馬政府削減支出。民主黨則是陷入與共和黨以削減預算赤字為名的政爭之中。

 目前距離美國下屆總統大選還有17個月,歐巴馬面對失業問題若還是這樣的態度,恐怕他也要失業了。
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