2 Terms Won’t Satisfy Trump

Published in Taiwan Times
(Taiwan) on 12 May 2025
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jennifer Sampson. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
Donald Trump, the man who launched a global trade war, has brought about significant changes in the international situation, and few countries have been able to adjust. Fortunately, he has scaled back somewhat to focus on dealing with China with a carrot and stick approach. However, his mediation of the war between Russia and Ukraine has puzzled many. And his dismantling of government agencies has created chaos at home and abroad. We’ll have to watch as Trump 2.0 rebuilds itself over the long term. Four years definitely won’t be enough for him to accomplish everything he wants, and his repeated references to a third term are unfortunately no joke. He has often walked his words back and the Constitution prevents a third presidential term, but still…

Trump has said he wants a third term for a long time, and speculated about it during his first term. Despite his ups and downs, he never gave up the idea of making a comeback, and the idea of Trump 2.0 has been brewing for four years. Throughout his campaign and after he was reelected, Trump has surprised people with what he says and does and regularly raises the idea of serving another term.

Not long after Trump took office this year, certain Republican members of Congress proposed an amendment that would allow a president to run for a third term if his first two terms were not consecutive. While amending the Constitution is extremely difficult — nearly impossible, according to some scholars — Trump said that he was “not 100% sure” {https://www.barrons.com/news/trump-not-100-sure-he-s-barred-from-third-term-c8a1185c} that the Constitution prohibits him from running again.

In the few short months Trump has been in office, radical changes have taken place inside and outside the U.S. Elon Musk was let loose to deal with government efficiency. Musk fired entire department of workers, suspended foreign aid and even trashed the Department of Education. Civil service workers have sued to protect their rights, and the courts have stopped some of the migrant deportations. The legal impact of America’s separation of powers — the mutual curbing of expanded power — is more apparent under Trump. His Republican Party holds the majority in both the House and the Senate. Although some Republicans think Trump’s comments about a third term are humorous, I’m afraid not many don’t really find them funny.

At the end of March, some U.S. media analysts suggested that Trump had raised the issue a third term to divert attention from controversies within his administration and also to impede his successor. Although that makes sense, if we zoom out, we can see that the idea of a third term has never been far from Trump’s mind.

Trump acts like a boss who likes to brag about his big achievements. He has fully brought his market assessments and bold risk-taking from the business world to the political world. While everyone just wants to make it through these next four years, it is hard to say in what shape Trump will take during the next presidential election or how will continue to influence events.


(無事不論)川普只做兩任恐難滿足

發動全球關稅戰的美國總統川普,讓國際局勢出現不小的變化,沒多少國家能一下適應,所幸有稍縮手,專注對付中國手法又軟硬兼施,調停俄烏戰事更讓人疑惑,而自裁多個政府組織搞得國內外雞飛狗跳,重新建構中的川普二點零,許多作為須拉長時間觀察,四年勢必不足成事,他不只一次提拚第三任恐非戲言,雖其時而改口,且美憲法也有規定,但…

 川普尋求第三任期早就溢於言表,在其第一任時就有揣測傳聞,沉浮的他,沒放棄再起的企圖,四年醞釀出的川普二點零,從參選到當選一再有令人訝異的言行表現,要做不只僅止此一任的想法,也是一以貫之的不時提出。

 今年初川普才剛上任不久,就有共和黨眾議員提案修憲允許美國總統若兩個任期不連續的情況下可參選第三次,美國要修憲難度極高,有學者認為幾無可能,但不久川普就說,就自己「無法百分之百確定」憲法禁止他繼續參選。

 川普就職短短數月,美國內外都出現極大變化,放手讓馬斯克搞政府效率,單位被裁、援外暫停,連教育部也沒了,不少公務人員興訟保權,而驅離移民作法,也有部分遭到法院制止。美國的三權分立在川普主掌下,以擴權達到相互牽制的法效,更加顯明呈現。而參眾兩院由川普的共和黨多數,雖有部分同黨議員覺得川普講第三任很幽默,但恐怕沒幾個真覺得好笑。

 三月底時有美國媒體分析,川普再提第三任期議題,是想轉移其執政的爭議焦點,也想以此牽制接班人,確實頗有道理。但拉長來看,第三任的想法一直跟著川普未曾遠離。

 言行表現充滿好大喜功式的大老闆姿態,川普將商場上的評估考量與大膽冒險,在政壇上發揮得淋漓盡致,當全世界都只想著忍耐這四年就好時,很難說,下次美國大選川普會以什麼形態出現,並持續影響整個大局…

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