The Real Intention of First U.S.-Japan-Aussi Military Exercise

The United States, Japan and Australia's joint military exercise beginning July 9 in Brunei’s waters, the first of its kind in the South China Sea, reveals an important message.

The three countries began a joint military drill in 2007. To date, the joint drill was limited to the waters west of Kyushu and Okinawa, Japan. This time, moving their forces to the waters near Brunei seems to indicate a hidden agenda. On the surface, their motive is in regards to the South China Sea dispute, but their ultimate goal seems to be to jointly ‘control’ China.

First of all, since 2008, China and most of the countries in Southeast Asia have had repeated disputes over the rights to fisheries and it’s commonly heard that its navy has fired at the fishing boats from other South East Asia countries. The tension over territory rights has escalated. Hence, Washington, Toyko and Canberra have decided to have joint drills in the waters near Brunei to ensure the safety and stability in the South Sea.

Secondly, Japan and Australia are the United States' strongest allies in the Asia Pacific region. Since the first of three rounds of talks on safety and the beginning of joint military exercises a few years ago, they have become the U.S. safety pillars in the region.

Facing the rise of China, the U.S. has had to strengthen their bilateral relationships with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, India and other allies in the region, in addition to their vision and mission, such as US-Japan-Korea, US-Japan-Australia, and US-Japan-Indonesia relations — the three three-cornered safety relations. This time, the joint military exercise between the US, Japan and Australia near Brunei is an important step towards securing the safety structure in the Asia Pacific region.

Thirdly, according to the June 21 joint statement from the U.S. and Japan, the attitude of the U.S. and Japan that China must control its military expansion is obvious, even though they did not point directly at China. Since Beijing still regards the South China Sea as one of their main interests, especially judging how China reacted to the dispute in the South China Sea over the Senkaku Islands in 2010, Washington and Toyko have started to re-evaluate China’s true intentions.

If the intention of the rising China were to maintain the current situation or seek security, then the compromise policy by Washington toward China would help to stabilize the relationship of the two countries and prevent unnecessary conflicts.

However, if China’s intention is evasion, then a firm policy by Washington could stop this and also strengthen its decisive reputation. Although President Obama hugged visiting Chinese President Hu Jintao in January and continues to work on improving both countries' relationship, five months after the meeting, both U.S. and Japanese foreign ministers and defense ministers were uncomfortable with China’s direction. This could be the real reason behind the naval exercises.

In the joint military exercise near Brunei, the U.S., Japan and Australia sent out naval patrolling ships for a grand event. The scale of drill was not very big; its aim could be to avoid worsening the scenario in the South China Sea and to avoid provoking China.

However, since China's first aircraft carrier will soon group under the South China navy, the situation in the South China Sea could further escalate. The scale of U.S.-Japan-Aussi drills will eventually grow as well.

Each year, the military drills of foreign navies in the Asia Pacific region are quite frequent. Even though neither the U.S. nor China has any intention of confronting the other militarily, each country has to be extremely careful during their respective drills to avoid misfiring. The South China Sea is perhaps the world's busiest waterway, with ships from all over the world passing through. It also has the most underwater resources and is the area with the highest number of countries disputing territorial rights.