The United States without a New Debt Ceiling

Published in Argenpress
(Argentina) on 19 July 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Claudia V. Tabora. Edited by Emily Sicard.
As the deadline approaches, as well as a potential credit rating reduction, it is unclear how Democrats and Republicans will solve the debt mess that has U.S. politicians on vigil.

As to bipartisan negotiations, very few signs of progress have emerged over the last few days, even after president Obama gave legislators a final deadline for signing a plan to raise the debt ceiling.

Republicans in the House of Representatives plan to look over a proposal that calls for an increase of 2.4 billion dollars to the existing debt, which is $14.29 billion already; it is a legal action that also demands a balanced budget and cuts to government spending.

However, the majority of analysts think that this program (known in the hallways of the Capitol as the “Cut, Cap and Balance” Act) has little possibility of generating bipartisan support due to fierce opposition from conservative Republicans.

Simultaneously, the Senate will continue to work on the back-up plan or Plan B, presented by Republican congressman Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, that would allow president Obama to raise the debt limit three more times before 2012.

McConnell proposed the creation of a special legislative panel charged with the responsibility of designing gradual reductions of the deficit with a permanent or long term solution in mind against the fiscal imbalance, reported The Wall Street Journal.

Despite good intentions, McConnell's initiative — seconded by Democrat leader Harry Reid — could be left in limbo, neutralized by the same conservative resistance that demands more cuts on government spending.

While the August 2 deadline approaches, financial circles in the United States will have their eyes on home sales figures, soon to be published, in order to assess the fragile financial recovery of the country.

Moody's Investors Service warned recently that if the federal government defaults, it could lower the U.S. credit rating.

Similar institutions, such as Standard and Poor's and Fitch, have also warned that they might have to lower the U.S. AAA rating.

Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner and Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke have also warned that the U.S. could default on payments if the debt limit, which was reached last May, is not raised by August 2.

The United States has a debt ceiling that represents more than 95% of its gross domestic product. If a clear plan is not presented, distrust could induce investors to ask for higher interest rates, a move that would require an adjustment in public spending.


A dos semanas de afrontar una moratoria, con rebaja en la calificación crediticia incluida, aún hoy no está claro como demócratas y republicanos resolverán el embrollo de la deuda que tiene en vigilia a la nomenclatura política de Estados Unidos.

En cuanto a las negociaciones bipartidistas, pocos signos de progreso han emergido durante las últimas jornadas, incluso después que el presidente, Barack Obama, dio a los legisladores un último plazo hasta el viernes para firmar un pacto con respecto al nuevo techo del endeudamiento.

Los republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes planean evaluar una propuesta que prevé un incremento de 2,4 billones de dólares al monto de la deuda -que ya es de 14,29 billones- en una acción legal que además exige balance presupuestario y recorte de gastos federales.

Sin embargo, la mayoría de analistas opina que este programa (conocido en los pasillos del Capitolio como "corta y equilibra") tiene escasas probabilidades de granjearse el apoyo bipartidista debido a una férrea oposición del ala republicana más conservadora.

Al mismo tiempo, el Senado continuará trabajando en un llamado "plan de respaldo" o Plan B, presentado por el congresista Mitch McConnell (republicano por Kentucky), que dejaría las manos libres a Obama para aplicar tres pequeñas alzas antes de 2012.

McConnell paralelamente propuso la creación de un panel parlamentario especial con la responsabilidad de diseñar paulatinas reducciones de déficit con vistas a una solución permanente o de largo plazo frente al desequilibrio presupuestario federal, recordó el diario The Wall Street Journal.

No obstante todas las buenas pretensiones, la iniciativa de McConnell -secundada incluso por el líder demócrata Harry Reid- también podría quedar en el limbo neutralizada por la misma resistencia conservadora que demanda más reducción de gastos por parte de la Casa Blanca.

Mientras se acerca la frontera final del 2 de agosto, los círculos financieros estadounidenses tendrán los ojos puestos en la publicación de cifras (de martes a jueves) sobre ventas de casas y precios de inmuebles, para sacar cuentas sobre la frágil recuperación económica del país.

Ante la posibilidad de que el gobierno federal caiga en moratoria, la agencia calificadora de riesgo Moody's Investors Service advirtió la pasada semana que podría bajar la calificación crediticia de Estados Unidos.

Otras instituciones en el mismo ámbito empresarial, como Standard & Poor's y Fitch, han dicho que estudian tomar decisiones similares y revisarán la calificación triple A de los bonos norteamericanos.

También el secretario del tesoro, Timothy Geithner, y el presidente de la Reserva Federal, Ben Bernanke, alertaron que Washington podría incumplir sus pagos si para el 2 de agosto no se logra un aumento del techo del débito, ya alcanzado en mayo último.

Estados Unidos tiene una tope de deuda que representa más del 95 por ciento del producto interno bruto. Si no presenta un plan claro, la desconfianza podría inducir a que inversores pidieran más altos tipos de interés, movida que generaría un nuevo ajuste del gasto público.
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