Working on a U.S. Debt Solution to Avoid Worldwide Crisis

Published in Nikkei
(Japan) on 29 July 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ryan Whiting. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Meetings have run aground in discussion on how to raise the debt ceiling. If this continues, the U.S. will get closer to defaulting on its debts; it is quite possible that world economics and financial markets will fall into another crisis. It is time for both political parties to overcome their party differences and solve this debt crisis.

The U.S. federal debt ceiling was raised to $14.3 trillion in the middle of May. If the ceiling isn’t raised by Aug. 2, then no more bonds can be issued. It will not be possible to pay for social security to elderly citizens and wages to government workers. Also, it will be difficult to pay the interest on bonds issued.

Both political parties are gravely responsible for leaving this problem to the last minute. Fear in the financial markets is building; the influence of a weak dollar and falling stock prices is spreading across the world. Due to this, the yen exchange rate has risen to 77 yen to one dollar, at an all-time high since the Sendai earthquake. At the time of the earthquake, it looked like the yen exchange rate would grow to 76.25. It is impossible to turn a blind eye to the problem created by the violent rise in the value of the yen while the country is trying to recover.

Even with one week left, there doesn’t appear to be a solution in sight. The ruling Democratic party wants to reduce the budget deficit by $2.7 trillion over 10 years in exchange for a raise in the debt ceiling by the same amount. The Republican Party is seeking to reduce the budget deficit by $900 billion and raise the debt ceiling. In half a year, they then would seek for a complete measure to address the problem.

The opposition between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party is deep-rooted. The Democratic Party wants a plan that will ensure that a raise in the debt ceiling will last until after the presidential election next fall. The Republican Party is pressing for a two-step approach to raising the debt ceiling along with annual expenditure cuts. However, the Republican Party is being kept from compromising because of opposition from young Republican congressmen who feel pressured by the commotion created last year by the conservative grassroots tea party movement.

This isn’t the time to be focused on partisan interests. If the U.S. were to default on its debt, there is fear that it would cause a spike in long-term interest rates and a sudden drop in the value of the dollar. As their first priority, both political parties must avoid this crisis and immediately raise the debt ceiling.

During the 2011 fiscal year (from October 2010 to September 2011), the U.S. federal debt swelled to an all-time high by $1.6 trillion. If the debt ceiling is raised without a path for reducing the deficit, then there is a risk that the United States’ credit could be downgraded, even though the default would be avoided. They need to look for an agreement that also addresses this.

Japan cannot just stand by and watch. It needs to work closely with other principal countries to make sure that this crisis is managed rigorously. Private businesses aren’t just complaining about the electrical outages; they are also complaining about the raise in the yen. If there isn’t an end to the high value of the yen, then we must not hesitate to intervene by selling yen. I am worried that the authorities are negligent in their preparation as I continue to hear them say, “We are monitoring the situation.”


世界の危機回避へ米債務問題の決着を

2011/7/29付

 米連邦債務の上限引き上げを巡る協議が暗礁に乗り上げている。このままでは米国債の債務不履行(デフォルト)に発展し、世界経済や金融市場が危機的状況に陥りかねない。与野党は党派の対立を乗り越え、債務問題の決着を急ぐべきだ。

 米連邦債務は5月中旬に法定上限の14.3兆ドル(約1110兆円)に到達した。8月2日の期限までに上限を引き上げないと、国債を増発できない。高齢者の年金や公務員の給与を支給できず、発行済みの国債の利払いにも支障が生じる。

 この問題を放置してきた与野党の罪は重い。市場ではデフォルトへの懸念が強まり、米国発のドル安・株安が世界中に波及した。そのあおりで円相場は1ドル=77円台まで上昇し、東日本大震災後につけた最高値の76円25銭も視野に入りつつある。国内景気の持ち直しを妨げる急激な円高は看過できない。

 だが、期限まで1週間を切っても着地点は見えない。与党の民主党は10年間で2.7兆ドルの財政赤字を削減する代わりに、これと同程度の法定上限引き上げを一括して実施したい考えだ。野党の共和党は0.9兆ドル程度の赤字削減と上限引き上げを認め、本格的な追加措置を半年後に検討するよう求める。

 来年秋の大統領選を乗り切れるだけの引き上げ幅を確保しておきたい民主党と、2段階の引き上げで歳出カットの上積みを迫る共和党の対立は根深い。昨年秋の中間選挙で旋風を巻き起こした保守系の草の根運動「茶会党」が共和党の若手議員らに圧力をかけ、民主党との妥協を阻んでいるのも問題である。

 もはや党利党略に明け暮れている場合ではない。米国債のデフォルトが現実になれば、ドルの急落や長期金利の高騰を招く恐れがある。与野党は危機の回避を最優先し、法定上限を直ちに引き上げるべきだ。

 2011会計年度(10年10月~11年9月)の米財政赤字は過去最大の1.6兆ドルに膨らむ。赤字削減の道筋を示さず、法定上限だけを引き上げれば、米国債のデフォルトを避けられても格下げのリスクは残る。こうした不安にも応えられる合意点を探るのが望ましい。

 日本も手をこまぬいてはいられない。主要国とも緊密に連携し、危機管理に万全を期す必要がある。民間企業は電力不足だけでなく、円高加速にも悲鳴を上げている。円高に歯止めがかからないようなら、円売り介入をためらうべきではない。当局がその備えを怠り「状況を注視する」と繰り返すだけでは困る。
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