U.S. Debt Negotiations: Playing with Fire And Kidnapping the World Economy

Published in Wenweipo
(Hong Kong) on 1 August 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Meghan McGrath. Edited by Emily Sicard.
According to reports, the Republican and Democratic parties have reached a preliminary agreement to avoid a debt default by the United States. Both side's leaders’ main goal is to document and evaluate their own party's attitudes in order to answer the biggest question: Will they have enough support from their followers? Bearing in mind the serious consequences of a default and trying to avoid playing with fire, Democrats and Republicans are likely to reach a compromise due to economic and political pressure. However, the struggle to raise the U.S. debt ceiling has fully exposed the fact that the two parties both seek political advantage. Both have repeatedly manipulatively played political games while ignoring national interests and distracting everyone from the larger issues of the world economy. The negotiations over raising the U.S. debt ceiling also reflect the U.S. economy’s long-term strategy of borrowing to get by and living beyond its means, a strategy which has become a major risk to global economic stability.

Over the several rounds of debt ceiling negotiations, both parties have flip-flopped, and it appears that both sides are willing to accept a new program of action. This indicates that the two parties do not dare take the risk of not finding a compromise. A similar situation shows that this scenario is not rare. During the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S. government proposed spending $700 billion to bail out banks. This was the first time that Congress fought within itself. The Dow Jones Index immediately plunged by 700 points. Market pressures forced Congress to vote again two days later, and they finally passed the bailout bill. Earlier this year, the U.S. government's annual budget was not approved by Congress, which would have forced closures of certain governmental offices. In the final hours, however, the two parties "suddenly" resolved their dispute by reaching an agreement. Behind the negotiations for the increase of the debt ceiling are the same political games that have been played before. It is all about winning votes and then “suddenly” bridging the differences between the two parties at the last minute. Handshakes follow this “tie” in the game.

The negotiations over increasing the U.S. debt ceiling have become a global concern because if the United States defaults on its debt, global financial turmoil follow, and global bond and stock markets will become very volatile. The negotiations between the two parties are attempts by both to gain political advantages against their opponents. Both are totally disregarding the fact that the United States is the world's largest economy, and they are ignoring the status of the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency as well as the responsibilities which come with this distinction. They also completely ignore the serious consequences expected if the U.S. defaults, not to mention the national debt held by U.S. assets and the security and economic stability of the U.S. itself. The Democrats and Republicans are playing a dangerous political game with U.S. interests and in the process, have kidnapped the world's economic stability.

The United States has long had a fiscal deficit, using a strategy of financing debt with even more debt, and the problem becomes more serious with every passing day. Even if these negotiations can raise the debt limit temporarily to eliminate the risk of default, the U.S. does not seem able to wash its face and tidy up its finances. It appears dependent on the status of the dollar as the international reserve currency and exclusive, low financing costs in international financial markets. The U.S. has continued to push to make ends meet and has ultimately given the country an ever-heavier burden debt. With the difficulty of the process of reform, the slow recovery of the financial sector and a manufacturing industry that cannot flourish, it is hard for the U.S. to have an optimistic economic outlook.


據報道,美國兩黨已初步開始達成避免美國債務違約的協議,兩黨領袖正向議員匯報和評估他們的態度,現時最大問 題是能否爭取民主共和兩黨議員的足夠支持通過。美債違約後果嚴重,為免玩火自焚,民主共和兩黨迫於政治、經濟壓力,極有可能達成妥協。不過,調高美債上限 的角力,充分暴露兩黨為謀取政治利益,一再操弄政治遊戲,罔顧國家利益,令世界經濟籠罩陰影。調高美債上限的談判困局,更反映出美國經濟長期靠借債度日、 寅吃卯糧,已成為影響全球經濟穩定的重大隱患。

兩黨就調高債務上限的談判經過多輪拉鋸後,出現雙方都可能接受的新方案,這說明兩黨不敢鋌而走險。類 似的情形屢見不鮮。2008年金融風暴期間,美國政府提出7000億美元的拯救銀行業計劃,第一次遭到國會投票反對。道瓊斯指數隨即狂跌700點。市場壓 力逼迫國會在兩天後重新投票,最終通過該救市法案。今年年初,美國政府的年度預算案遲遲未獲國會批准,一度陷於被迫關門的邊緣,但就在政府停頓前幾小時, 兩黨「突然」結束爭吵達成協議。此次調高債務上限的談判背後同樣是政治博弈,是一場博取選票的政治騷,到最後關頭兩黨的分歧「突然」消除、握手言和的情況 可能再次重演。

調高美債上限的談判備受全球關注,因為如果美國發生債務違約,將引發全球金融動盪,全球債市和股市均 將出現巨大波動。兩黨企圖借調債方案撈取政治利益、打擊對手,完全不顧美國作為世界最大經濟體、美元作為國際儲備貨幣的地位和責任,不考慮美債違約的嚴重 後果,不理持有美債國家的資產安全、經濟穩定,民主共和兩黨玩弄危險的政治遊戲,不但把美國的利益放在一邊,更綁架了全世界的經濟穩定。

美國長期以來奉行赤字財政,靠「以債養債」的方式來運作,高負債和高赤字的問題日趨嚴重。即使此次能 夠提高債務上限,暫時消除違約之虞,但美國若不洗心革面整頓財政,仍然依賴美元的國際儲備貨幣地位,在國際金融市場上獨享低廉融資成本,不斷以推高債務來 度日,最終令國家的債務負擔更加沉重,各項改革進展舉步維艱,金融業復甦緩慢,製造業疲不能興,經濟前景難以樂觀。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Sri Lanka: Qatar under Attack: Is US Still a Reliable Ally?

Austria: The US Courts Are the Last Bastion of Resistance

       

Mexico: Urgent and Important

Austria: Donald Is Disappointed in Vladimir

Taiwan: Trump’s Talk of Legality Is a Joke

Topics

Israel: Antisemitism and Anti-Israel Bias: Congress Opens Investigation against Wikipedia

Spain: Trump, Xi and the Art of Immortality

Germany: We Should Take Advantage of Trump’s Vacuum*

Sri Lanka: Qatar under Attack: Is US Still a Reliable Ally?

Taiwan: Trump’s Talk of Legality Is a Joke

Austria: The US Courts Are the Last Bastion of Resistance

       

Poland: Marek Kutarba: Donald Trump Makes Promises to Karol Nawrocki. But Did He Run Them by Putin?

El Salvador: The Game of Chess between the US and Venezuela Continues

Related Articles

Hong Kong: Foreign Media Warn US Brand Reputation Veering toward ‘Collapse’ under Trump Policy Impact

Hong Kong: The Lessons of World War II: The Real World Importance of Resisting Hegemony

Hong Kong: Can US Tariffs Targeting Hong Kong’s ‘Very Survival’ Really Choke the Life out of It?

Hong Kong: What Makes US Trade War More Dangerous than 2008 Crisis: Trump

Hong Kong: China, Japan, South Korea Pave Way for Summit Talks; Liu Teng-Chung: Responding to Trump