After Iowa

Published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
(Germany) on 4 January 2012
by Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ron Argentati. Edited by Mark DeLucas.
As usual, there's great turmoil at the start of candidate selection; but things always look different by the next primary. And by the primary after that, they look different again.

The question now seems to be whether Romney, who barely won in Iowa, will score a decisive victory in his own backyard in New Hampshire or the surprise second-place Iowa finisher, former Senator Rick Santorum, can unite the conservative voters behind him and become Romney's chief rival.

If Santorum succeeds in doing that, a war of attrition threatens the Republican camp and could end in an exhausted candidate and a divided party. Merely being anti-Obama won't be enough, and it's only logical that the Democratic president would have no objection to such a development.

It's a dilemma for Republicans that Mitt Romney, the candidate with the best chances of defeating Obama in November, isn't especially popular with the party base. The reason for that is Romney's flip-flopping — read: his opportunism — and the fact that he's not far enough to the right.


Nach Iowa
Von KLAUS-DIETER FRANKENBERGER
04.01.2012


Es ist wie immer: Da wird viel Aufhebens um den Beginn der Kandidatenauslese gemacht, und dann sieht es beim nächsten Termin schon anders aus; und beim übernächsten wieder anders.

Nun lautet die Frage, ob der Minimalvorsprung-Sieger der republikanischen Parteiversammlungen von Iowa, der frühere Gouverneur Romney, demnächst auf quasi heimischem Boden in New Hampshire einen fulminanten Sieg hinlegt, oder ob der Überraschungszweite, der frühere Senator Santorum, die konservativen Wähler hinter sich vereinen kann und sich zu Romneys Hauptrivalen mausert.

Schafft er das, droht ein Zermürbungskampf im republikanischen Lager, an dessen Ende ein ausgelaugter Kandidat und eine gespaltene Partei stünden (nur gegen Obama zu sein reicht nicht). Logisch, dass der demokratische Präsident gegen einen solchen Verlauf nichts hätte.

Es ist das Dilemma der Republikaner, dass derjenige, der mutmaßlich die größte Chance gegen Obama hätte, Romney, die Basis nur mäßig begeistert. Das hängt mit seiner Wechselhaftigkeit - lies: mit seinem Opportunismus - zusammen und damit, dass er nicht stramm rechts ist.
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