US Democratic Election Incapable of Changing Economic Crisis

Published in China Network
(China) on 17 October 2012
by Qiao Xinsheng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Leah Averitt. Edited by .

Edited by Eric Schallock

The U.S. presidential election is like a raging fire. The Democratic Party and the Republican Party’s candidates have pulled out all of the stops. They each hope to win the most votes. Now, both candidates are in a deadlock. It is difficult to immediately determine who will be the victor and who will be defeated. Regardless of whether it is the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate, they both frequently take advantage of each other’s economic policies, attempting to persuade voters to support their own positions. However, it is definitely the case that the economy is not prospering, and this can bring about greater pressure for the Democratic Party, as they are attempting to run for another term in office.

Many economic scholars are currently analyzing the presidential candidates’ proposed economic plans. However, from my point of view, U.S. presidential power is not as strong as people think. The reason why the presidential candidates dared to open a short-term bank check during the campaign is very simple. In order to succeed when running for office, one cannot hesitate at any cost. Once elected, they are able to cash a check with regard to the promises they made when running for office. On the other hand, it seems that the Democratic candidate is now the same. He attributed the problems of implementing his own policies to the last presidency, or he directly blamed Congress. I think that Congress mutually works to prevent action, making it difficult for the president’s policies to be effectively implemented. This is a deceptive trick, and although it is very poor, it occurs again and again.

Market economy is a very exceptional operating mechanism. There is rational allocation of resources by the free competition of the market players — although in recent years, many countries have been trying to shift the allocation of resources to macro-control policies through fiscal and taxation measures. However, when looking at real outcomes, in most situations the government is more of a hindrance than a help. In other words, when the market economy approaches a downward phase, when cyclical economic crises are on the verge of emerging, government financial and taxation regulations, which can have some effects, cannot change the overall trend of the market economy. The government’s macro-control may delay the emergence of the economic crisis to a certain extent, but the occurrence of the crisis cannot be avoided. In the past, people recognized that there are specific types of economic crises. Now, more and more people realize that economic crises entail not only definite, but also fictitious economic consequences. If one grasps the fact that governments have the right to distribute currency, and they excessively issue that currency, then one can see how the government can create large scale economic crises. People cannot doubt that, now, many countries’ economic crises are the result of government mistakes related to currency policy. After all is said and done, during an economic crisis, is the government playing the part of an impeder or of a promoter?

Since the government has had a very limited role in the economy, why do people hope that the economic downturn will cause the government to play a greater role in it? One of the reasons is very simple: Decentralized decision-making of a market economy mechanism cannot be changed. Yet people expect the government, through limited intervention, to reduce the losses caused by the economic crisis. Presidential candidates take advantage of this. This entails very complex economic calculations and very complex political calculations. The U.S. Republican presidential candidate explains his economic policy during the campaign by saying that he is trying to reduce taxes, expand investment and solve the U.S. unemployment problem. The U.S. Democratic presidential candidate continues to explain his own tax policy, saying that he hopes to reduce the taxes of the middle class, attempting to gain its votes. For ordinary Americans, this is a dilemma of choice, but it is an unnecessary choice. As we have analyzed, the laws of the market economy decide the economic cycle, whereas the government plays a very limited role. Therefore, it doesn’t matter whether they plan to reduce taxes for the middle class or for investors; both options are nothing but political maneuvers aimed to please some voters.

However, the crux of the problem is that no one wants to pay more taxes. Therefore, whether it is a Republican presidential candidate or a Democratic presidential candidate, both are making a fuss about tax cuts. The consequential problem is that the tax reduction will inevitably bring about an increase in the fiscal deficit and will inevitably lead to the reduction of social welfare. Voters have the burden of choosing between reducing their own social welfare and increasing their own taxes. In this sense, the U.S. presidential election is not as important as people imagine. In a federal country, every state has its own way. U.S. diplomatic and military policy is subject to Congress. Therefore, the U.S. presidential election only concerns the competition between two individuals. In other words, the U.S. presidential election is actually focused on the limited capabilities of two opposing candidates. No matter who is elected they cannot change the general trend of the U.S. economy. The economic crisis is under the rule of the market economy. Therefore, if an economic crisis hits when there is a re-election for the U.S. president, the incumbent will face great challenges. Conversely, if a U.S. presidential candidate is ready to recapture the presidency in the event of an economic crisis, then he will be faced with unprecedented opportunities. The reason why I point this out is that some U.S. experts on the topic of the U.S. presidential election have put forth analyses that over-exaggerate the economic policies of the U.S. presidential candidates. Saying that the economic policy of the U.S. presidential candidates can save the U.S. economy is like saying that fire and water can go together. This is an unrealistic fantasy, and the president of the U.S. can lie. U.S. presidential candidates can propose rhetoric, but in the face of the laws of the market economy, they can do nothing.

Of course, this is not to say that the U.S. democratic elections are useless. The market itself cannot solve our problems. The market economy itself can cause more problems. Because of this, the market economy still needs more democratic elections. When an economic crisis emerges, there is an urgent need for a presidential election. A reason for this is that during the campaign people can find the crux of the problem through the presidential candidates’ mutual criticism. You can also vote to change the current economic policy. It can be said that periodic democratic elections for presidential candidates bring more political luck. Periodic democratic elections make voters more clearly aware of current problems. They allow them to make choices in their best interests when choosing between different economic policies.

The market economy caused voters to lose their livelihood. However, the presidential election asks them to get a ballot. They can use their votes to change social welfare, and they can also use their votes to select different economic policies. Voting is people’s only option to influence policy.


乔新生:美国民主选举无法改变经济危机


2012年10月17日08:32
来源:中国网 作者:乔新生

原标题 [乔新生:美国民主选举无法改变经济危机]

美国总统选举如火如荼,民主党和共和党的候选人使出浑身解数,期望争取更多的选票。现在双方处于胶着的状态,在短时期内很难分出胜负。不论是民主党的候选人还是共和党的候选人,都充分利用对方经济政策中存在的问题,说服选民支持自己的主张。但可以肯定的是,经济不景气可能会给竞选连任的民主党总统带来更大的压力。
 
 现在不少经济学家都在分析总统候选人提出的经济主张,不过在我看来,美国总统权力并不像人们想象的那样大。总统候选人之所以敢于在竞选期间开出空头政治支票,原因非常简单,那就是为了竞选成功可以不惜一切代价,至于当选之后能够兑现自己的竞选承诺,则是另外一个问题,就像现在的民主党总统一样,将自己政策实施中存在的问题归咎于上一届总统,或者直接归咎于国会,认为正是国会的相互掣肘,才导致总统的政策难以有效地实行。这种骗人的伎俩虽然十分拙劣,但总有人不断重复。
 
 市场经济是一个非常特殊的运行机制,它通过市场主体的自由竞争实现资源的合理配置。虽然近些年来许多国家试图通过财政税收宏观调控政策改变资源配置的走向,但从实际结果来看,绝大多数情况下政府都是在帮倒忙。换句话说,当市场经济进入到下行阶段,周期性经济危机即将出现的时候,政府的宏观调控政策特别是财政税收宏观调控政策虽然能够产生一定的作用,但无法改变市场经济的总体走向。政府的宏观调控可能会在一定程度上延缓经济危机的出现,但却无法避免经济危机的发生。过去人们所理解的经济危机往往是指实物经济的危机,现在越来越多的人意识到,经济危机不仅包括实物经济的危机,还包括虚拟经济的危机。如果掌握货币发行权的政府过量的发行货币,那么,就会导致更大规模的经济危机出现。事实上,现在许多国家的经济危机都是在政府实行错误的货币政策之后所产生的,因此,人们不能不怀疑,政府在经济危机中究竟是扮演阻碍者的角色还是扮演促进者的角色?

既然政府在经济危机中的作用十分有限,那么,为什么人们还要寄希望于政府在经济不景气的情况下发挥更大的作用呢?其中的道理非常简单,分散决策的市场经济运行机制无法改变,但人们寄希望于政府通过有限的干预,来减少经济危机所带来的损失。总统候选人正是充分利用这一点,不断地宣传自己的经济政策,以争取选民的支持。这是一种非常高超的欺骗伎俩,其中包含着非常复杂的经济算计,也包含着非常复杂的政治计算。美国共和党的总统候选人之所以在竞选期间不断地解释自己的经济政策,是因为共和党总统候选人试图通过减少税收,扩大投资,解决美国存在的失业问题;而美国民主党的总统候选人之所以不断地解释自己的税收政策,是希望通过减少中产阶级的税收,让他们把选票投给自己。对于普通美国人来说,这是一个两难的选择,但也是一个无谓的选择。正如我们所分析的那样,市场经济的规律决定了,政府在经济周期变化过程中的作用十分有限。因此,无论是减少中产阶级的税收,还是减少投资者的税收,都不过是取悦部分选民的政治口号罢了。
  
但问题的症结就在于,没有人愿意缴纳更多的税收,因此,无论是共和党的总统候选人还是民主党的总统候选人都在减税政策上做文章。但由此引发的问题是,税收的减少必然会带来财政赤字的增加,必然会导致社会福利的减少。选民们只不过是在减少自己的社会福利还是增加自己的税收负担之间作出选择罢了。从这个意义上来说,美国总统大选并不如人们所想象的那么重要,在一个联邦制的国家,美国各个州自行其是,美国的外交军事政策受制于国会,因此,美国总统选举只不过是两个人的赛跑而已。换句话说,美国总统大选实际上是在两个能力有限的候选人中间分出高低,无论谁当选都无法改变美国经济的总体走向。


经济危机是在市场经济规律的作用下产生的,因此,如果美国总统候选人在经济危机到来时竞选连任,将会面临极大的挑战;反过来,如果美国总统候选人在经济危机到来时准备夺回总统宝座,就会面临空前的机遇。笔者之所以指出这一点,是因为一些美国问题专家在分析美国总统大选的时候,过分地夸大了美国总统候选人的经济政策,认为美国总统候选人提出的经济政策可以拯救美国经济于水火。这是一种不切实际的幻想,美国总统可以撒谎,美国总统候选人可以夸夸其谈,但是在市场经济规律面前,他们无能为力。
  
当然,这并不是说美国的民主选举毫无价值。市场经济本身不能解决我们的问题,市场经济本身会产生更多的问题。正因为如此,市场经济才需要更多的民主选举。当经济危机出现的时候,人们迫切需要总统选举,因为在竞选过程中人们可以从总统候选人的相互攻讦之中发现问题的症结,也可以通过投票改变现行的经济政策。可以这样说,周期性的民主选举给总统候选人带来的更多是政治上的运气,但对于普通选民来说,正因为有周期性的民主选举,才让他们更加清楚地意识到自己所面临的问题,才能让他们在不同的经济政策中作出对自己最有利的选择。
  
简而言之,市场经济让选民失去了面包,但总统选举让他们获得了选票,他们可以用自己的选票换取社会福利,也可以用自己的选票选择不同的经济政策。尽管这是一种无奈的选择,但除此之外,人们别无选择。
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