Fiscal Cliff Awaits President Obama

Published in Yomiuri
(Japan) on 8 November 2012
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Kenny Nagata. Edited by Hana Livingston .
Democratic incumbent Barack Obama defeated Republican candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney to win re-election.

President Obama will face a pressing issue in his second term. For the time being, the financial crisis has been overcome, and now economic reform is on the way. We want America to exhibit strong leadership as they take on this big role and responsibility.

President Obama was unable to fulfill his promise to cut the deficit at least in half by the end of his first term. Job creation also didn’t progress and the unemployment rate has remained stagnant around 8 percent.

Despite that, he was re-elected, due to a generally positive economic recovery and his achievements in the field of national security.

Shortly after taking office, he implemented an economic stimulus package and stabilized the financial system. He saved General Motors, and it can be said that he saved America from bank failures and another Great Depression.

He ended the war in Iraq, which had been his “failed inheritance,” and has paved the way for American military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Governor Romney’s failure was largely due to his attacks on the president’s economic failures, while being unable to show his own comprehensive economic strategy.

Obama’s top priority is balancing economic policy and economic reform.

Moving into the next year, major tax reductions are due to expire and a mandatory cut in annual expenditures will be implemented, culminating in a “fiscal cliff.” If no action is taken, the result will be a major economic reduction that could cause America to fall into a deep recession. The influence on Japan and the rest of the world will be serious.

The cooperation of Congress is necessary in order to overcome this trial.

In the congressional elections, the Republicans retained majority of the House and the Democrats of the Senate, with no major changes in composition. Obama will have to invest all of his power to push through necessary legislation and prevent economic chaos.

Security and diplomatic policy issues, such as North Korea, nuclear development in Iran and the situation in Syria, are piling up like a mountain.

What America needs to be particularly careful of is its policy on China, whose economy and military are expanding rapidly.

As a “Pacific nation,” America’s strategy in its focus on Asia has great influence on the stability and prosperity of the region. Where do they stand with their ally Japan, and what kind of relationship will they build with China?

Japan, having been an early participant in the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, needs to coordinate political cooperation. While fulfilling our own role, we must further strengthen the relationship between Japan and America.




米大統領選で、民主党の現職バラク・オバマ氏が、共和党候補ミット・ロムニー前マサチューセッツ州知事を退けて、再選を決めた。

オバマ氏が2期目で直面する課題の重さは、4年前にひけをとらない。金融危機はひとまず克服したが、経済再生は、なお途上にある。米国が世界で担う役割と責任の大きさを踏まえ、強い指導力を発揮してもらいたい。

オバマ氏は、「1期目の任期中に財政赤字を半減する」との公約を実現できなかった。雇用創出も思うようには進まず、失業率は8%近くに高止まりしている。

それでも再選できたのは、経済再建や安全保障分野での実績がおおむね評価されたからだろう。

就任早々に巨額の景気対策を実施し、金融システムを安定させた。破綻した米自動車大手ゼネラル・モーターズ(GM)も救済して、大恐慌に転落する瀬戸際にあった米国を救ったと言える。

「負の遺産」だったイラク戦争を終わらせ、アフガニスタンからの米軍撤収にも道筋をつけた。

ロムニー氏の敗因は、大統領の経済失政を指弾しながら、説得力のある経済政策を示せなかったことに尽きる。

オバマ氏の最優先課題は、景気対策と財政再建の両立である。

年末から年明けにかけ、大型減税が失効し、歳出の強制削減が始まる「財政の崖」が控えている。何の手も打たなければ、大規模な財政緊縮をもたらし、米国は深刻な景気後退に陥りかねない。日本など世界への影響は甚大だ。

この試練を乗り切るには、連邦議会の協力が欠かせない。

議会選の結果、下院で共和党、上院で民主党がそれぞれ過半数を占める“ねじれ”の構図に変化はなかった。経済の混乱を防ぐため必要な法案を成立させるべく、オバマ氏は全力を挙げるべきだ。

外交・安全保障政策でも、北朝鮮、イランの核開発やシリア情勢など懸案が山積している。

特に注目したいのは、経済・軍事で膨張する中国への政策だ。

米国が「太平洋国家」としてアジア重視の戦略を打ち出していることは、地域の安定と繁栄に大きな意味を持つ。米国は同盟国の日本をどう位置づけ、中国とどのような関係を築くつもりなのか。

日本も、米国主導の環太平洋経済連携協定(TPP)への早期参加を目指し、米国と政策協議を重ねる必要がある。自らの役割を果たす中で、日米関係をより強固にしていかなければならない。
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