Shinzō Abe Will Visit US, Obama Unlikely to Show Good Face

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 15 February 2013
by Liu Sanchen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Meghan McGrath. Edited by Lydia Dallett.
The original intention of Shinzō Abe's visit to the United States was to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance, gain support from the U.S. in Japan’s dispute with China and achieve a breakthrough in the peace constitution, lifting the ban on "collective self-defense" (a defensive strategy that involves using allied countries to help defend one’s own country). Surprisingly, Japan has already been informed in advance that, if President Obama decides to support Japan’s plan to lift the ban on collective self-defense, the move could stimulate opposition from China. Abe must also decide whether to join the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement.

This cold manner, more than Beijing’s hazy weather, showed on Abe’s gray head and face. He understood that in this atmosphere, as long as China does not make the first move, the United States will not support Japan’s move. Abe can only watch as China’s boats and planes, on official business, move freely into the water and air space of the Diaoyu Islands. He can’t be surprised that China’s warships and planes are once again shrouding Japan’s own warships and planes.

Just a few days ago, Japan's Kyodo News questioned whether Obama would support Japan and the amendment of its constitution to end the ban on Collective Self-Defense during the summit meeting. If Obama chooses to support Japan, this will be a step forward for Japan-U.S. relations.

On the United States’ side of this issue, if Obama does choose to support Japan, China will likely see this as the joining of hands between Japan and the U.S. and will feel pressured. The United States believes if China's attitude toward Japan continues to be tough, tension will intensify and may lead to instability in the region. That would benefit neither Japan nor the U.S. On Japan’s side of this issue, Abe and Obama could speak with the China’s Communist Party about restraining its attitude, but the U.S. State Department may have a negative reaction to this idea, as it may have a bad influence on U.S.-China relations.

Actually, considering the United States’ role in bringing international order after World War II, how can it so easily overthrow Japan’s idea to formulate peace? In addition, if Japan joins the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement, it will accrue major benefits. It is impossible to satisfy America’s desires, too. I am afraid that this is the contradictory nature that makes up U.S.-Japan relations.


香港《东方日报》2月15日文章 原题:奥巴马不给安倍好脸 安倍晋三访美,本意是巩固日美同盟,争取日本在和中国的争端中获得美国更多的支持,并且进而突破和平宪法,解禁集体自卫权。不料,日本已经预先获知,美方以可能刺激中国为由,反对届时由奥巴马总统表态支持日本政府解禁集体自卫权。安倍方面,则也决定不对是否加入跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定(TPP)表态。

  这股冷风,将比北京的雾霾天气更打得安倍灰头灰脸。他明白,在这种氛围下,只要中国不打第一枪,美国是不会出手支援日本。安倍只能任由中国的公务船和公务机自由进出钓鱼岛领海领空,而中国的军舰和军机则再次罩住日本军舰军机也不奇怪。

  日本共同社报道,日本政府日前就奥巴马能否在首脑会谈时,表态理解并支持安倍政府修改宪法解释以解禁集体自卫权,征询了美方的意向。日方表示,如果获得奥巴马的支持,日美关系将向前迈进。
-

  美方对此则表示,如果奥巴马向安倍表态支援日本政府解禁集体自卫权,中国有可能将此视为美日联手对其施压。美方认为,如果中国的态度因此趋于强硬,日中关系紧张加剧,将导致地区的不稳定,不符合美日两国的共同利益。日方还建议安倍和奥巴马在会谈中共同敦促中国采取克制态度,美国务院对这一建议也持消极态度,认为此举可能会给美中关系造成影响。

  其实,美国也是二战后国际秩序的制订者,怎可轻易推翻其为日本制订的和平宪法?此外日本若加入TPP,也是重大利益受冲击,不可能遂美国意。恐怕,这亦是日美的结构性矛盾。
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