The Tacit Understanding between Obama and Putin

Published in Wen Wei Po
(Hong Kong) on 25 July 2013
by Li Zhongzhou (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Keith Armstrong.
One week after Edward Snowden's application for temporary asylum he has not yet obtained transit documents or left the airport in Moscow as many had expected. His lawyers claim that, given the special nature of this case, the U.S. is the predominant factor in Russia's deliberations on how to handle the issue. The U.S.-Russia feud is lively but ultimately innocuous, a tacit agreement between Presidents Obama and Putin that neither embarrasses either side nor harms either country's core interests.

The possibility of Russia granting asylum to Snowden should not come as a surprise to anyone, whether independent observers or the U.S. government. With Putin's tough manner, he will certainly not bow to pressure from Washington and extradite Snowden. He made it clear early on that the former National Security Agency contractor has only holed up in Moscow because U.S. threats have prompted other countries to close their doors to him. But Putin also understands that he cannot allow the issue to ruin relations with the U.S., so he first established the condition that Snowden must stop leaking state secrets.

Even if Russia grants Snowden asylum in the end, one must remember that this is only a temporary measure, meaning that Snowden would have to apply again after one year. If relations greatly improve between the U.S. and Russia in the interim, or if Snowden fails to honor his promise to stop leaking information, it is not impossible to imagine Putin rejecting an extension of asylum and quietly sending a generous gift to the U.S.

Meanwhile, Obama is similarly unwilling to get caught up in a deadlock with Russia, but he has kept up pressure on Russia and Latin America in response to steady public criticism of Washington being too soft in foreign affairs. Putin has succeeded in silencing Snowden, thus giving Obama a means to back down. Even if Snowden gains refugee status, he may not remain in Russia long. If he wishes to speak out again in the future, he may still attempt to move on to Latin America.

For decades the U.S. and Russia have placed grand wagers in this game of which Snowden is only one small piece. The issues of nuclear disarmament, cooperation in combating terrorism around the globe, Iranian nuclear weapons, Syria and the Korean Peninsula are all larger battles to be fought, with cooperation and competition between the two countries juxtaposed. Is Putin's strong showing with regard to Snowden a prelude to a withdrawal on other issues? Is it because whenever given an inch the U.S. seeks to take a mile? Or is it a part of larger U.S.-Russian exchanges to come at the G-20 summit? What's certain is that this one small piece has spiced up the game between the U.S. and Russia by no small measure.


 斯诺登在提交临时庇护申请一周后,暂未如外界所料取得过境文件离开机场,律师声称因为个案特殊,意味俄方在处理斯诺登案时,美国是考虑的最重要因素。俄美关系斗而不破,是俄总统普京和美总统奥巴马之间心照不宣的契约,既顾全面子,却不损两国核心利益。

 相信无论是观察家抑或美国政府,对于俄方可能庇护斯诺登都不会觉得意外。以普京的强硬作风,断不会在华府压力下,贸然驱逐斯诺登。他早前已说得很清楚,是美国的恐吓令其他国家关上庇护之门,才令斯诺登被困莫斯科。然而普京亦明白,不可让斯诺登破坏俄美关系,故先给斯诺登开出不再泄密的条件。

 即使最终俄国真的庇护,但要留意这只是临时庇护,一年过后斯诺登需重新申请,倘若其间俄美关系突然大幅改善,或斯诺登违反不泄密承诺,不排除普京会拒绝继续庇护,变相送美国一个大礼。

 另一方面,奥巴马也不愿与俄闹僵,但为回应舆论不断批评华府对外软弱,才在斯诺登议题上向俄国和拉美步步进逼。普京成功令斯诺登“收声”,已是给奥巴马下台阶。斯诺登即使获得难民身份,也未必一定长居俄国,若他日后再想发声,仍可尝试前往拉美。

 长久以来,美俄不断在豪赌一场“大棋局”,斯诺登只是其中一小棋子,核裁军、全球反恐合作、伊核、叙利亚、朝鲜半岛等议题是更大的“战场”,两国合作与竞争并存。普京在斯诺登事件挺进一步,是否在其他事务上稍退一着的伏笔?还是美国得寸进尺的后果?抑或是即将举行的G20峰会美俄交易的一部分?小小一个斯诺登,让美俄博弈这场好戏添色不少。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Austria: Whether or Not the Tariffs Are Here to Stay, the Damage Has Already Been Done*

Australia: The US’s Biggest Export? Trump’s MAGA Mindset

Spain: Trump to Students — ‘Don’t Come’

Mexico: From Star Wars to Golden Domes

Hong Kong: From Harvard to West Point — The Underlying Logic of Trump’s Regulation of University Education

Topics

Germany: Horror Show in Oval Office at Meeting of Merz and Trump

Hong Kong: From Harvard to West Point — The Underlying Logic of Trump’s Regulation of University Education

Spain: Trump to Students — ‘Don’t Come’

Japan: Will the Pressure on Harvard University Affect Overseas Students?

Mexico: From Star Wars to Golden Domes

Germany: US Sanctions against the EU

Austria: Whether or Not the Tariffs Are Here to Stay, the Damage Has Already Been Done*

Germany: Trump’s Tariff Policy: ‘Dealmaker’ under Pressure

Related Articles

Hong Kong: Foreign Media Warn US Brand Reputation Veering toward ‘Collapse’ under Trump Policy Impact

Hong Kong: The Lessons of World War II: The Real World Importance of Resisting Hegemony

Hong Kong: Can US Tariffs Targeting Hong Kong’s ‘Very Survival’ Really Choke the Life out of It?

Hong Kong: What Makes US Trade War More Dangerous than 2008 Crisis: Trump

Hong Kong: China, Japan, South Korea Pave Way for Summit Talks; Liu Teng-Chung: Responding to Trump