Many of my friends want to know how I feel about the recent political war in America. I don’t think we should panic. I’m certainly not a prophet of any kind, but I believe there are lessons to be learned from similar crises that have unfolded in the past, which happened under Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. It’s useful to take the drama out of the situation. I think they will find a way to communicate, but it’s a shame that stubbornness has taken the place of moderation.
There’s no winner here. It’s also not the first time I'm witnessing a shutdown of the federal government here in Washington. I clearly remember the winter of 1995 to 1996, when a similar point was reached. It’s an institutional blockage caused by the lack of political compromise between the two parties and between the House of Representatives and the Senate. Eventually, they will have to come up with a way to cooperate, in the form of a functional budget. For now, however, radicalism seems to be guiding everything. Obama’s adversaries are accusing him of not accepting dialogue — which is actually not far from the truth. The president claims to have the people’s vote on his side, but it’s arguable whether or not his election was really just a referendum on health care reform.
In this case, we’re dealing with an incompatibility between the vision of one of the most influential groups of the Republican Party on one side and the Obama administration, supported by the leadership of the Democratic Party, on the other. In the end, I am confident that the moderate politicians of both parties will manage to find a common language.
At stake is Obamacare, the new, drastic medical insurance system reform act, which many Republicans — and Democrats less radical than, say, Nancy Pelosi — see as incomplete and having serious problems that have generated major public discontent. I’m not an expert in the matter, so I won’t give a hasty verdict. It wouldn’t be a tragedy to postpone the act for a year, as it would actually allow discussions to continue about the act’s most controversial points and give politicians time to maybe make some adjustments. That is the point of the Republicans’ proposal.
For the time being, the government is shut down, with the exception of vital institutions. This shutdown could last for a few days, a week or even a few weeks. But, for now, I don’t see any dramatic consequences where the economy is concerned; however, they might arise if the situation is extended for too long. I honestly doubt that America’s image will suffer because of a situation with familiar precedents. It’s not bankruptcy; it’s a communication crisis resulting in temporary political paralysis.
Sunt intrebat de multi prieteni cum vad actualul razboi politic american. Nu cred ca trebuie cazut in panica. Sigur, nu am darul de a profetiza, dar cred ca istoria unor crize similare din trecut este instructiva. Au avut loc in vremea lui Jimmy Carter si in aceea a lui Bill Clinton. Este util sa dedramatizam situatia. Eu unul cred ca se va gasi o cale de dialog. E pacat ca obstinatia s-a substituit moderatiei.
Nimeni nu e castigator in actuala situatie. Nu este prima oara cand sunt martor aici, la Washington, al inchiderii guvernului federal. Imi amintesc perfect iarna 1995-1996 cand s-a ajuns la o situatie similara. Este vorba de un blocaj institutional generat de absenta compromisului politic intre cele doua partide si, respectiv, intre Camera Reprezentantilor si Senat. Va trebui, pana la urma, sa se ajunga la o formula de coexistenta tradusa intr-un buget functional. Pentru moment, insa, radicalismul pare sa fie la ordinea zilei. Adversarii lui Obama il acuza ca nu accepta de fapt dialogul (ceea ce nu e departe de adevar). Presedintele pretinde ca are de partea sa votul popular, desi e discutabil daca alegerea sa a fost un referendum pentru refoma sistemului de sanatate.
In cazul actual, avem de-a face cu o incompatibilitate intre viziunea uneia din gruparile cele mai influente din Partidul Republican, pe de o parte, si administratia Obama, sprijinita de conducerea Partidului Democrat, pe de alta parte. Cred ca pana la urma moderatii de orientare conservatoare din ambele partide vor reusi sa gaseasca un limbaj comun.
Miza este ceea ce se numeste Obamacare, noua lege de reformare drastica a sistemului de asigurari medicale, pe care multi republicani (dar si democrati de orientare mai putin radicala decat, sa spunem, Nancy Pelosi) o privesc drept insuficient de bine construita, cu serioase probleme menite sa genereze nemultumiri publice grave. Nu sunt specialist in domeniu, deci nu ma voi hazarda sa ma pronunt asupra legii. Un an de amanare nu ar fi o tragedie, ar ingadui continuarea discutiei asupra celor mai controversate puncte, eventual ajustari. Acesta este sensul propunerii republicane.
Pentru moment, guvernul este inchis, cu exceptia institutiilor socotite de importanta vitala. Aceasta inchidere poate dura cateva zile, o saptamana, chiar cateva saptamani. Deocamdata nu vad consecinte dramatice in plan economic, dar ele se pot ivi daca aceasta situatie se prelungeste peste masura. Iar masura este un lucru dificil de evaluat. Ma indoiesc ca imaginea Statelor Unite are neaparat de suferit datorita unei situatii care are precedente stiute. Nu este vorba de un faliment, ci de o criza de comunicare soldata cu efecte de paralizie politica momentana.
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It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.
Time will tell whether the strategic ambitions of the French-German alliance, including those regarding the European army, will jeopardize the EU's cohesiveness, and especially how much longer they can work together within NATO.