'Japanese-American Alliance': Now a Chess Piece in Japan's Hand

Published in Global Network
(China) on 29 September 2013
by Wang Gao (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Dagny Dukach. Edited by Chris J. deGrazia.
On Sept. 25, Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo delivered a speech in New York. His statement that “if everyone wants to call me a right-wing militarist, that’s fine with me”* momentarily attracted the attention of the entire media. In actuality, Abe does not really care whether he is a rightist; he is much more interested in reassuring the United States, so that he might once again receive practical benefits from the hand of America.

During this speech at the United Nations, Abe had two main selling points. The first was to continue to promote “Abe-economics” and propagandize to the world that Japan has “returned,” thus making his appeal for everyone’s investment. The other selling point was to lift the prohibition on collective self-defense and, in so doing, to prettify the constitution and win international favor.

More than the “Abe-economics” catchphrase, some actual effective healing is what everybody really wants to see. Whether a short-term stimulus plan will be able to bring about long-term economic stability and growth is still unknown. When it comes to lifting the prohibition on collective self-defense, Japan is putting forward the exact same justifications that led to America’s weakness.

One of the most fundamental reasons why Japan is not able to become a fully sovereign country is that its national defense and military policy is unable to stand independently; America is its greatest obstacle. During the Cold War period, although the U.S.-Japan alliance relieved Japan of its security worries, it also put a cap on the development of Japanese military forces.

Over the past several years, circumstances have begun to change. As China’s strength has grown unceasingly, America has gradually shifted the focus of its strategy from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region. But because its oppositional strength has declined, America wants to believe that in the Asia-Pacific region it has completely achieved its ends. This, however, is not at all the case. Indeed, this only signifies that the extent of America’s reliance on its allies has deepened even more. And among America’s allies in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s military capacities are second to none.

As a result, the scales of the U.S.-Japan alliance are beginning to tilt. Several top American officials have announced their hopes of drawing closer to the Japanese. Just this month, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell indicated that in practice, the officials of the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House and the Department of State (i.e., those who bear responsibility for defense and security) are in favor of the expansion of Japan’s efforts and capabilities and strongly believe that this is a crucial step forward. Against the backdrop of the unceasing growth of China’s military strength, it is only proper that Japan upgrade its own military capabilities.

Abe’s speech at the United Nations is clearly a response to the Americans. But compared to America by its high-profile speeches, Japan is searching for much more international approval to justify lifting the prohibition on collective self-defense. Within Abe’s carefully packaged speech, the aim behind amending the constitution has already turned Japan into “a country that actively contributes to world peace and stability”* and an “actively pacifist state.”* Even now, when the United States and Japan echo one another’s speech, it is not hard to see that the “U.S.-Japan alliance” has become just a chess piece for Japan to use as it will.

Although the threshold before an amendment to the constitution is great, Abe has seized upon America’s weakness; this has made the extent to which he is under international pressure less than clear. Moreover, domestically, a successful Olympic bid and economic improvements have greatly reduced the number of obstacles that might keep him from carrying out rightist policy changes.

One could say that Abe’s current “strength” and “cleverness” are provoking a mood of increased security worries in neighboring countries and are pushing the security of Asia toward the development of dangerous and unknown territory. But the United States and Japan will never be wholly of one mind, even if they appear to be united in this one instance. The Japanese will be patient for a few years, but in truth they want to get something clear and straight.

In the past, present and future, America’s strength always means that it takes the greatest responsibility for the stability of the Asian states. Although the postwar order had its flaws, it successfully preserved a cornerstone of peace and stability in Asia. In response to the rise of Asia, the United States has made a precise evaluation: Its strategy is not to toy with the balance of power; instead, it is steered by rationalism. Since no one can predict the outcome of such a course of action, even America will not be spared.

*Editor's note: The original quotation, accurately translated, could not be verified. However, similar quotations have appeared in the media.


高望:“美日同盟”成了日本手中的一张牌
2013年09月29日07:09|来源:海外网|字号:
摘要:无论是过去现在还是将来,美国的实力决定了它对于东亚秩序的稳定负有重大责任。战后秩序虽有缺陷,但仍然是维持东亚和平稳定的基石。

日本首相安倍晋三9月25日在纽约发表演讲。他的一句“如果大家想把我叫作右翼的军国主义者,那就请便吧”,一时间把媒体的焦点视线全拉走了。其实安倍对自己是不是右派无所谓,他更在乎的是如何让美国放心,又可以从美国手中获得更多实际利益。

安倍这次在联合国的发言有两个卖点。一是继续鼓吹“安倍经济学”,对外宣传日本已经“回来了”,号召大家投资;另一个是以解禁集体自卫权为目的,为修宪涂脂抹粉,争取外界支持。

对于“安倍经济学”,口号之外,大家更要看“疗效”。短期刺激方案能否迎来经济的长期稳定增长仍然是个未知数。对于解禁集体自卫权来说,日本给出的理由恰恰击到了美国的“软肋”。

日本之所以不能成为完全主权国家,最根本的一条是国防和军事政策无法独立,美国是最大障碍。在冷战时期,“美日同盟”虽然解除了日本的安全之忧,但也为日本发展军事力量戴上了“紧箍咒”。

近年来,形势发生了变化。随着中国力量的不断增长,美国逐渐把战略重心从欧洲转移到亚太地区。但由于相对实力的下降,美国要想在亚太地区完全做到游刃有余并不现实,这便意味着美国对于盟国的依赖程度在进一步加深。而日本的军事能力在美国亚太盟国中是首屈一指的。

于是“美日同盟”的天平微微发生了倾斜。一些美国前高官不断放出风,朝着日方的期望靠拢。就在这个月,美国前助理国务卿坎贝尔表示,肩负防卫和安保责任的美国国防部、白宫官员以及国务院的实务官员们支持日本为扩大自身能力而做的努力,强烈认为那是必要的措施。在中国军力不断增强的背景下,日本提升自卫队的能力是正确的。

安倍在联大的发言显然是对美方作了回应。但相比美方的高调,日本为解禁集体自卫权寻找到更多“让人能够接受”的理由。在安倍精心的包装下,修改宪法的目的已经异化成使日本成为“为世界和平与稳定更积极做出贡献的国家”和“积极和平主义国家”。时至今日,从美日双方一唱一和的说辞中不难看出,“美日同盟”反而成了日本可以利用的一张牌。

尽管修宪门槛很高,但安倍抓住了美国的软肋,这使得他在外部压力并不明显。而在国内,随着申奥的成功,经济情况的好转,这都使得他推行右倾化政策的阻碍减小不少。

可以说,安倍目前的“强势”和“小聪明”正在刺激邻国的不安全情绪上升,并推动东亚安全朝着一个危险的未知领域发展。然而美日从来就不是一条心,即使在一条船上也是貌合神离。“隐忍”几十年,日本意欲获取什么是一目了然的。

无论是过去现在还是将来,美国的实力决定了它对于东亚秩序的稳定负有重大责任。战后秩序虽有缺陷,但仍然是维持东亚和平稳定的基石。美方应对东亚未来的走向有个准确的评估,而不是玩弄均势战略,被现实主义逻辑牵着鼻子走。因为这样的结果谁都无法预料,美国也不可能独善其身。

(高望,海外网特约评论员)
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