Chaos within the US Government: Preemptive Resolutions To Evade a Global Crisis

Published in Kahoku Online Network
(Japan) on 11 October 2013
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Taylor Cazella. Edited by Robert O'Connor.
Ten days have passed since — failing to establish a provisional budget for the coming fiscal year — various government agencies were shut down on account of the two-party dispute in Congress. Manufacturers that require government inspections to ship their goods have had to begin temporary employee layoffs; the effects have begun to surface in civic life as well.

With concerns regarding the security of one's employment and income, there is also a turn toward restraint in spending. Dark clouds are forming on the path to American economic recovery.

In addition to fears over such an economic slowdown from a major power, what's got the global financial market's nerves on edge is the approach of Oct. 17 — the deadline for raising the federal debt ceiling.

The issuance of government bonds and the amount of money that the federal government can borrow is fixed; debt cannot be incurred in excess of the legally prescribed limit without congressional consent.

With the two-party dispute left unresolved, if the current ceiling of $16.7 trillion (about 1,620 trillion yen) is not raised by the deadline, financing difficulties will occur and the situation will arise in which interest cannot be paid on pre-existing debts. It is possible that the U.S. national debt could fall into default.

Even if the deadline passes by, it is considered possible for the federal government to make do for the time being with the available funds held in the Department of the Treasury. Nevertheless, if it were to come to a default, the credibility of the U.S. would be forfeit, the world financial market would be thrown into utter chaos and it is even possible that a recession greater than the Lehman Shock of 2008 would envelope the global economy.

President Obama and Congress must quickly put an end to this political strife, return the government to its normally functioning condition and avoid a global financial crisis that would originate from the U.S. and spread from there.

There are two main factors regarding the circumstances of the U.S. government going astray. The first is that, since the midterm election held in the fall of 2010, Congress has been in the “twisted” condition of having a Democratic majority in the Senate and an opposed Republican majority in the House.

The second is the conflict revolving around the reform of the medical insurance system that is to be implemented in 2014, which was a campaign policy for Obama. In an America which has a number of uninsured citizens exceeding 45 million, the reform aims at the actualization of a universal health care system. This law was passed before the "twist" occurred.

The implementation of this system is bound to bring about a "big government" that will expand public expenditures. The Republican Party, which touts a "small government" that seeks to reduce annual expenditures and stresses the importance of self-effort and personal responsibility, has seen its allergies grow ever worse in response to these reforms pushed forward by the president and the Democrats; they are requesting that the implementation of these reforms be postponed.

The "philosophy" held by each party is different. Their deeply ingrained opposition has brought about these "twisted" circumstances and, tied to expectations over the coming midterm election next fall, it's gone so far as to cause the present issue of raising the debt ceiling.

However, if they were to allow the country to fall into default, not only would the U.S. lose its credibility, but every national government that holds a large portion of U.S. debt, including China and Japan, would inevitably suffer a blow. The negative impact that the fall in value of the dollar and the chain reaction of low stock prices spreading out from the U.S. would have on the Japanese economy — which is now showing signs of moving away from deflation — as well as the global economy, is incalculable.

Mr. Obama has provisionally raised the debt limit and presented the Republicans with a plan to use that grace period to search for some means to break the deadlock; he has begun groping for a compromise. It is my hope that Congress and the Republican Party will respond with consideration for the bigger picture.

The U.S. must shoulder its responsibility as the world's largest economic power and plan some pre-emptive resolution for the current state of affairs so that chaos does not spread throughout the world.


米国政治の混乱/早期収拾し世界危機回避を

 議会の与野党対立により、新しい会計年度の暫定予算が成立せず、米国内で一部政府機関が閉鎖されてから10日。製品出荷に政府の検査が必要なメーカーが従業員の一時帰休を余儀なくされたのをはじめ、影響は市民生活にも及び始めた。
 雇用や所得に対する不安から消費手控えの動きもあり、回復途上の米国経済に暗雲が湧く。
 大国のそうした景気減速懸念に加え、各国や金融市場が神経をとがらせているのは、政府債務の上限引き上げ期限が17日に迫っていることだ。
 米国は国債発行をはじめ、連邦政府が借金できる金額が決まっており、議会の同意なしに法定分を超えて債務を負えない。
 このまま与野党の対立が解けず、期限までに現在の上限約16兆7千億ドル(約1620兆円)が引き上げられなければ、資金繰りが困難になり、既発国債の利払いができない事態が起こる。米国債が債務不履行(デフォルト)に陥りかねないのだ。
 期限が過ぎても、当面は財務省手持ちの現金でやりくりは可能とされる。だが、もしもデフォルトとなれば、米国の信用は失墜し、世界の金融市場は大混乱を来し、2008年のリーマン・ショック以上の不況が世界経済を覆う恐れさえある。
 オバマ大統領と議会は政争に早く終止符を打って政府機能を正常化させ、米国発の世界経済危機を回避せねばならない。
 米国政治が迷走する背景には二つの要因がある。一つは2010年秋の中間選挙以降、議会が上院は与党・民主党、下院は野党・共和党が多数派を占める「ねじれ」状態にあることだ。
 もう一つは、オバマ氏の看板政策であり、14年に実施される医療保険改革をめぐる対立だ。4500万人超の無保険者がいる米国で、事実上の国民皆保険制度を目指す改革。法律は「ねじれ」前に成立している。
 その実現には公的支出が膨らむ「大きな政府」にならざるを得ない。大統領と民主党が推進するこの改革に対し、自己責任・自助努力を重視し歳出削減を求めて「小さな政府」を掲げる共和党はなおアレルギーが強く、改革実施の延期を求める。
 両党のよって立つ「哲学」が違うのだ。その根深い対立が「ねじれ」を背景に、来年秋の中間選挙を控えた思惑も絡み、債務上限問題にも及ぶ。
 だが、デフォルトに陥れば、米国の信認失墜にとどまらず、米国債を大量保有する中国、日本を含む各国政府にとって打撃となるのは必至だ。デフレ脱却の兆しが見える日本経済をはじめ、ドルの下落や米国発の株安の連鎖が、世界経済に及ぼす悪影響は計り知れない。
 オバマ氏は、債務上限を短期間引き上げ、その「猶予期間」を使って打開の糸口を探る案を共和党に提示、歩み寄りを模索し始めた。議会、共和党にも大局に立った行動を求めたい。
 事態の早期収拾を図り、混乱が世界に波及しないよう、米国は世界一の経済大国としての責任を果たさなければならない。
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