Moscow Leaves Washington with a Bitter Taste Once More

Published in Wen Wei Po
(Hong Kong) on 9 November 2013
by Huang Haizhen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Nathan Hsu. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently issued a warning to the U.S., saying that it must forever abandon any "illusions in connection with the possibility of eliminating the Syrian problem" through military intervention. He also emphasized that it will be important to "liquidate the growing threat from extremist and terrorist groups for the welfare of the Syrian Arab Republic and stability in the entire region."

The warning from Moscow shows that Russia will not allow the White House to perpetually give clandestine support to Russian anti-government organizations and public support to anti-government demonstrations in Red Square or continue its hypocritical statements on Russian human rights, elections and politics. Quite the contrary, Russia itself is capable of blocking the White House's plans to utilize military action in Syria, thus stopping Washington short of that point of no return. During the Cold War, the White House shared a deep enmity with the former Soviet Union due to events, such as the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Moscow's daring to taunt the U.S. over the Syrian issue has left officials in Washington with a bitter taste in their mouths.

After World War II, two events occurred that were cause for celebration in Washington. The first was the Bretton Woods Conference that affirmed the dollar as the dominant trade and global reserve currency. Although the agreement resulted in a guarantee from Washington that the dollar would be fixed at $35 per ounce of gold, the rule had no legal efficacy, and the U.S. quickly turned its back on that promise by devaluing the dollar on multiple occasions as was convenient, thereby shrinking many countries' reserves. Doing so allowed the U.S. to weather multiple crises and procure immense economic benefits for itself, as well as decades of prosperity as a consequence. The second event was the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the Russian economy collapsed and the value of the ruble plummeted. Yeltsin collapsed drunk in the middle of the night on Pennsylvania Avenue, and it was clear that Russia was no longer the adversary of the U.S., which then became the sole hegemon of the world.

Putin Pulls Obama from the Fire

Each time societal conflict in the U.S. reaches a certain level, popular dissatisfaction with the White House intensifies and gives rise to a series of protests. To divert this frustration among the populace, the president often seeks excuses at these times, creates news internationally or even starts a war. Former U.S. Presidents Johnson, Reagan, Clinton, Bush (senior) and George W. Bush have all used such means. Obama has won the Nobel Peace Prize, but is impatient all the same to use military force in Syria, having already sent aircraft carriers and battle groups armed with cruise missiles off the war-torn country's coast in preparation for war without waiting for a consensus in the Security Council or the approval of the U.S. Congress. The rest of the world can practically smell the acrid scent of gunpowder wafting from Obama's threat-laden televised speeches.

At present, the U.S. economic recovery is flagging and the housing market fragile, the deficit has marked new highs, the military and schools have been shaken due to a lack of funding, and the monitoring of personal communications has also inflamed the populace. Out of options, Obama wished, like his predecessors, to use the magic pill of war to solve his problems. The U.S. and other countries drafted a resolution for military action against Syria in the Security Council, but it obviously could not be passed in the face of Chinese and Russian opposition. Putin resolved the crisis by suggesting the elimination of Syrian chemical weapons, thus saving Obama from embarrassment. For if the U.S. invades Syria, it will be repeating the same disastrous policies as George W. Bush in Afghanistan and Iraq, placing the U.S. once more into an inextricable quagmire. It is entirely within the bounds of reason to say that it is Chinese and Russian cooperation that has wrested Obama back from sinking into this morass once more.

The Age of "The Word of the U.S. is Law" is Over

The U.S. is the only nuclear superpower in the world capable of striking any location in the world with a nuclear missile within two hours. Russia and China, on the other hand, have the capability to utilize mobile and underwater missile platforms for a nuclear retaliation against the U.S. After Xi Jinping was elected general secretary of the Communist Party, Putin dispatched a special envoy to Beijing, which succeeded in convincing Xi Jinping to accept an invitation for a state visit to Moscow. Obama, on the other hand, lagged half a step behind. Although he initially phoned Xi Jinping to congratulate him on his election as president, the first offer for Xi to visit Washington was rebuffed. Xi's decision to visit Russia instead struck a sensitive nerve for Obama, who immediately sent a special envoy to Beijing to engage in a round of amicable exchange, demonstrating Obama's anxiety over closer ties between China and Russia.

On Washington's Capitol Hill, there is an unwritten rule for weighing the White House's political accomplishments. If Sino-Russian relations are tense, then the White House earns top marks; conversely, frequent exchange and amiable relations between the Asian powers are seen as a failure. Despite America’s status as a nuclear superpower, it is no longer the case that the outcomes of all issues around the globe are decided in Washington. If Beijing and Moscow do not play ball, then the U.S. is all bark and no bite. The U.S. is gradually but relentlessly pressing harder against Russia in Eastern Europe and placing missiles and next-generation radar systems in Japan under the pretext of warding off North Korea, all with the end goal of being directed against Moscow and Beijing. The U.S. has also played an extremely unsavory part in egging Japan on in the Diaoyu dispute, but while it has caused more problems for China, it has also prompted China and Russia to work together more closely against the White House.


黃海振 資深評論員

 俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫近日對美國發出警告,必須永遠放棄用軍事干涉來「斬斷敘利亞死結的幻想」。他還強調「為了敘利亞和整個地區的福祉,必須消除該國的極端主義和恐怖團夥威脅。」莫斯科的警告顯示:俄羅斯不僅不會讓白宮永遠暗中支持俄羅斯反政府組織、公開支持紅場的反政府遊行,對俄羅斯的人權、選舉和政局說三道四;反過來已經有能力阻止白宮企圖採取的軍事行動,讓華盛頓在敘利亞問題上「懸崖勒馬」。白宮曾經在冷戰時期因為「古巴導彈事件」對前蘇聯有刻骨仇恨,今天的莫斯科在敘利亞問題上敢於向美國叫板,再次讓華盛頓重嘗「骨鯁刺喉」味道。

 二戰後,有兩件事最令華盛頓欣喜若狂,一是「布雷頓森林會議」確定美元為全球貿易結算和儲備貨幣。雖然會議讓華盛頓保證每35美元隨時兌換一盎斯黃金,但由於保證沒有法律效用,導致美國很快就拋棄這一保證,多次將美元隨意貶值而將世界各國的儲備「攤薄成稀飯」,讓美國渡過多次難關,獲取巨大經濟利益,並因此繁榮了幾十年;二是前蘇聯在1991年解體、俄羅斯經濟陷入崩潰、盧布大幅貶值、葉利欽半夜醉倒在華盛頓街頭,讓俄羅斯不再是美國的對手,美國也就順理成章成為天下絕對霸主。

普京把奧巴馬從危境拉出

 每當美國社會矛盾累積到一定限度,百姓對白宮的不滿就會越來越強烈,繼而產生系列抗議行動。華盛頓為了轉移民眾對政府的不滿,總統通常會在這個時候尋找借口,製造國際新聞,甚至發動戰爭。美國前總統約翰遜、里根、克林頓、老布什、小布什等都是這樣做的。奧巴馬擁有「和平獎」頭銜,但在對敘利亞動武的議題上一樣顯現出迫不及待,不等聯合國安理會獲得共識,美國國會也未批准,就已經將航母、導彈部隊調到敘利亞邊境,企圖赤膊上陣。奧巴馬在電視面前充滿殺氣的講話,讓世界都「聞到」火藥味。

 美國目前經濟復甦無力、樓市脆弱、財赤創新高、部隊和學校因為「缺錢」變得充滿暗湧,監聽民眾通訊亦引發百姓極度不滿。奧巴馬束手無策之際,同樣想採用「發動戰爭法寶」來應對。美國等在安理會提出對敘利亞動武決議草案,在中國和俄羅斯的反對下,當然無法通過。普京提出「銷毀敘利亞化學武器」,化解了危機,也把奧巴馬從危險的境地拉出來。因為美國如果進攻敘利亞,將重蹈小布什入侵阿富汗和伊拉克的覆轍,讓美國再陷入泥潭而無法自拔。完全可以說,是中俄合作「迫使」奧巴馬避免再次陷入泥潭。

「美國說了算」時代已經過去

 美國是世界上唯一能夠隨時隨地,在2小時內將核彈打到全球所有地方的超級核國;俄羅斯和中國則是有能力使用「可移動」、「潛射」彈道導彈對美國進行核報復的國家。習近平當選中共總書記後,普京派出特使專程到北京,成功邀請習近平當選國家主席後首訪莫斯科。奧巴馬則慢了半拍,在習近平當選國家主席的第一時間致電祝賀,但邀請習近平首先訪華盛頓卻遭到拒絕。習近平首訪俄羅斯的決定傳出後,刺激了奧巴馬敏感神經,即時迅速派出特使前往北京,在習總訪俄前先進行一輪「熱身交流」,顯示奧巴馬擔憂中俄關係更緊密。

 華盛頓國會山有一條衡量白宮政績的潛規則:如果中俄關係緊張、劍拔弩張,那麼白宮的工作成績是A;相反,如果中俄關係融洽、有來有往,則認為白宮是失敗的。儘管美國是超級核國,但世界上的事已經不再全由華盛頓說了算;如果北京和莫斯科都不賣帳,美國說了也不算。美國在東歐對俄羅斯步步緊逼、借防範朝鮮為名在日本佈置導彈和新一代雷達系統,目標都是針對莫斯科和北京。美國在釣魚島問題上慫恿日本,扮演了極不光彩的角色,給中國製造麻煩的同時,也「催化」了中俄更加合作對付白宮。
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