Did Facebook Buy WhatsApp To Compete against WeChat?

Published in Caixin
(China) on 20 February 2014
by Jiajie Tang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jingwei Qian. Edited by Laurence Bouvard.
U.S. social media giant Facebook announced that it acquired the instant messaging app WhatsApp for $19 billion in total. The scale of this investment far exceeded the $1 billion it spent on the photo-sharing tool Instagram two years ago. At that time, the market had widely believed that was too expensive and suspected that it was the beginning of another Silicon Valley bubble.

Just two years later, the market no longer says Instagram, which has already been an important part of Facebook, was an expensive deal. Today, Facebook has thrown $19 billion at WhatsApp, which has been in operation for less than five years and has only 55 employees. The market does not readily comment on the expense. After the acquisition was announced, Facebook’s stock price fluctuated more severely and closed up 1.13 percent. After all, the acquisition has exceeded one-tenth of the market value of Facebook, which is over $170 billion.

What Aspects of WhatsApp does Facebook Favor?

As far as the two motivations of corporate mergers and acquisitions are concerned, from the economic perspective, WhatsApp does not profit from advertisement, but charges users 99 cents a year. WhatsApp already has 450 million monthly active users and is adding more than 1 million new registered users daily. That will indeed allow WhatsApp to have positive, stable financial statements, but its market value is absolutely far below $19 billion.

Therefore, the acquisition by Facebook was more out of strategic motivation. As is estimated by Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook founder and CEO, "WhatsApp is on a path to connect 1 billion people. The services that reach that milestone are all incredibly valuable."

The influence of WhatsApp outside the United States should not be underestimated. From a survey of five representative countries in 2013, the market research company On Device found that the usage rate — the percentage of those who have mobile device products downloading the app — of WhatsApp in Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia was 72 percent, 68 percent and 43 percent, respectively, ranking No. 1 in the market of each country.

In the U.S., WhatsApp has a usage rate of 35 percent, second to Facebook Messenger’s usage rate of 46 percent, because the information services of telecommunications companies are comparatively cheap, while in the Chinese market, not surprisingly, WeChat wins the first place with a usage rate of 93 percent.

It can be inferred that Facebook was buying a way to tap overseas markets by acquiring WhatsApp.

Facebook, which just celebrated its tenth birthday, has become the oldest social media organization in history. Facebook has 1.23 billion monthly active users, equivalent to one-sixth of the world’s population; 945 million of them are mobile device users. Users share 400 billion photos and click 6 billion “likes” every day.

However, Facebook has been anxious about a few things recently: First, the loss of young users; second, the rapidly rise of WeChat from China.

The technology consulting company iStrategyLabs published a study the other day, indicating that Facebook had lost 3 million young American users aged 13 to 17 since 2011, while users older than 55 had increased by 80 percent. The study shows that young groups are moving away from Facebook.

A survey on the tenth anniversary of Facebook by Pew Research Center, a U.S. market survey company, also shows that adults’ usage rate has increased significantly in recent years. Nowadays, about 57 percent of adults are Facebook users. Also, 64 percent of users browse Facebook every day — the daily browsing rate was only 51 percent in 2010 — while the usage rate of youngsters aged 12 to 17 is 73 percent, without much change.

Some analysts forecast Facebook’s decline by reason of the old frightening off the young. A Princeton University research group conducted research on social networks’ spread, based on virus spread modeling. The research inferred that Facebook’s rise and decline was like the spread of infectious diseases — a rapid large-scale spread before eventually dying out. The research came to the audacious conclusion that Facebook would lose 80 percent of users in three years, like the previous decline of the social network MySpace.

While Facebook is suffering user loss, WeChat, a multifunctional, real-time application on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, is growing at an astonishing speed in China and even overseas.

A report from the market survey company GlobalWebIndex shows that WeChat’s global growth rate of users, excluding China, was up 379 percent from the second to the fourth quarter in 2013, easily defeating all the other social networks, including WhatsApp (35 percent), Facebook (11 percent) and Twitter (15 percent).

With a great many old users of Tencent QQ and its mobile-friendly, multifunctional product, Tencent published data for the first time in Nov. 2013, indicating that WeChat has 270 million active users, including 10 million overseas users.

Overseas media have also begun to pay attention to the WeChat tornado from China. The other day, The New York Times reported that the Chinese had already gotten used to the “highly addictive social networking tool.” The report commented that in the past, Chinese Internet enterprises were often regarded as a knockoff of Western products, but the activity and creativity of WeChat — for instance, it combines multiple social networking tools (camera, voice recorder, text message) — “could help change global perceptions of Chinese companies.”

CNN also reported in January that Tencent was showing its ambition to crack the U.S. market. For instance, Tencent invested $150 million in the e-commerce company Fab last year, and also intended to buy the photo messaging application Snapchat. Tencent will continue challenging Facebook and other technology companies in Silicon Valley.

WeChat took an active part in developing the overseas market, including cooperation with Google and an endorsement by Argentine soccer star Messi, which boosted WeChat’s performance in Italy, Turkey, India, the Philippines, Malaysia and so on.

Competition among social media applications is unpredictable over the next decade. Facebook, as market leader, has definitely felt strong pressure of competition from China. When comparing the two social media, we find that WeChat concentrates on multi-functionality and attempts to carve a way through the fragmented market of applications, while Facebook has a 10-year foundation of development despite a lack of experience in the Chinese market.

For one thing, the acquisition of WhatsApp has granted Facebook a product that can stand up to WeChat as an equal in terms of money; more importantly, it expands the strategic space of the overseas market.


面临年轻用户流失之困的Facebook,欲借WhatsApp 打开海外市场的战略空间,包括抵御强势崛起的微信

财新特派华盛顿记者 唐家婕

美国社交网站Facebook宣布总计以190亿美元代价,收购移动即时通讯应用WhatsApp。这笔交易资金的规模,远远超出了两年前其对照片分享应用Instagram所花费的10亿美元——那时市场已大呼昂贵,并疑为硅谷新一轮泡沫的开始。

短短两年,市场上已没人会说现已成为Facebook重要入口的Instagram买贵了。今天Facebook掷出190亿美元,买下成立不到五年、仅拥有55名员工的WhatsApp,市场人士也不敢轻易言贵。收购宣布后,Facebook股价震荡加剧,最终收涨1.13%。毕竟对市值1700多亿的Facebook来说,这笔收购已超过了公司市值的十分之一。

  Facebook到底看上了WhatsApp的什么?

若按照企业并购的两大动机来谈,经济动机方面,WhatsApp的营利模式为没有广告,但向使用者收费,一年99美分(约人民币6元)。以每月4.5亿活跃用户,每日超过100万新注册人口来看,WhatsApp确实有本亮丽而稳定的财务报表,但绝对远远低于190亿美元的价值。

因此,Facebook的收购更大程度是战略动机。用Facebook创办人兼CEO马克•扎克伯格的估计,“WhatsApp正走在连接10亿人口的路径上,能够达到这一级别的服务都拥有不可估量的价值。”

WhatsApp在美国以外地区有不容小觑的影响力。市场研究公司On Device在2013年的针对五个代表国家的调查中发现,WhatsApp在巴西、南非、印度尼西亚分别拥有72%、68%、43%的使用率(指拥有移动设备产品的人下载该应用的比例),皆列各国市场第一。

在美国,由于电信公司的简讯服务相对低廉,使WhatsApp以35%的使用率,次于Facebook Messanger的46%;中国市场则不出意料是微信以93%的使用率称王。

  由此可看出,收购WhatsApp应是Facebook为打入海外市场购买的“船票”。
刚度过10岁生日的Facebook,已成为历史上最长寿的社交媒体,每月活跃用户有12.3亿人,是世界人口的六分之一,其中9.45亿是移动设备使用者。用户们每天分享的相片有4000亿张、每天按60亿个“赞”。

  但是,最近有几件事让Facebook紧张,一是年轻用户的流失,二是来自中国的微信的快速崛起。

日前,科技顾问公司iStrategyLabs发表研究称,2011年以来,Facebook已流失300万美国13至17岁的青少年用户,55岁以上用户人数则增加80%,显现年轻族群正在逃离Facebook。

美国市场调查公司皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)针对Facebook十周年的调查也显示,成人使用率近年来大幅提高,约有57%的成人是Facebook的使用者,且有64%的使用者每天浏览Facebook(2010年的每日浏览率是51%);而12岁至17岁的青少年的使用率是73%,并没有太大改变。

有分析以“老人吓走了年青人”来预测Facebook的衰微。普林斯顿大学的研究团队则以“病毒扩散模式”研究“网络社群扩散”,推估Facebook的兴衰类似于传染病扩散:先经历大规模迅速扩散,然后衰亡。研究大胆推估,Facebook将在未来三年流失80%的用户,如同先前的社交网站Myspace的衰落。

  在Facebook面临用户流失的同时,太平洋彼岸一款多功能的实时通讯应用——微信,正以惊人的速度在中国甚至海外地区快速成长。

市调公司GlobalWebIndex (GWI)报告显示,微信于2013年第2至4季全球不含中国地区的使用者成长率达379%,雄霸社群平台成长率冠军;远高于Whatsapp的35%、Facebook的11%及Twitter的15%。

  挟着大量腾讯QQ旧用户的优势、移动友善、多元功能的产品,腾讯在2013年11月首度公布数据显示,微信已拥有2.7亿活跃用户,其中包括一千万海外用户。

海外媒体也开始注意到这股来自中国的微信旋风。《纽约时报》日前介绍,中国人已经离不开这种“非常容易上瘾的社交网络工具”。报导评论称,过去中国的互联网企业常被视为西方产品的山寨版,但微信的活跃、创新,比如将多种社交网络工具(照相、录音、短信)综合使用的方式,“或许会有助于全世界改变对中国公司的看法”。

美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)1月初也报导称, 腾讯正展现打进美国市场的雄心,比如去年斥资1.5 亿美元投资商务电子公司 Fab,同时也是有意买下图片分享应用程序Snapchat,未来将继续“与 Facebook 及其他硅谷科技公司展开争夺战”。

  微信积极布局海外,包含与Google合作、请阿根廷球星梅西代言等,已经使它在意大利、土耳其、印度、菲律宾、马来西亚等地取得不错的成绩。

  社交媒体应用的版图在十年内变幻莫测,霸主Facebook绝对嗅到这股来自中国的竞争压力。两者相较,微信专注于多元功能,企图在应用市场碎片化中杀出一条路;Facebook缺少中国市场的基础,却有十年的发展根基。

对WhatsApp的收购,一方面使Facebook拿到了一个可资抵御微信的产品,更重要的是打开了海外市场的战略空间。■ 

责任编辑:郭琼 | 版面编辑:王永
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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