Will the US Government Be Influenced by Obama’s Idealistic State of the Union Speech?

Published in Nihon Keizai Shimbun
(Japan) on 22 January 2015
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stephanie Sanders. Edited by Nicholas Eckart.
Will U.S. President Obama compromise with Congress, which now has a Republican majority in both houses? The answer is no. Idealistic arguments aimed at his base, such as correcting the income divide through tax increases on the wealthy, and criticism of businesses that engage in corporate tax evasion accounted for a majority of the State of the Union speech. Will this influence the U.S. government? Japanese diplomacy, based on continuing stagnation, is necessary.

Mr. Obama stated this at the beginning of the speech: "So tonight, I want to focus less on a checklist of proposals, and focus more on the values at stake in the choices before us."

The State of the Union address is primarily for the president to communicate to Congress what policies he would like to move ahead with and legislation that will be necessary in the year ahead. A speech that seems to say the president is not counting on Congress is unusual. The Republican opposition has been increasingly confrontational toward Obama's "go my own way" route.

What gives Mr. Obama confidence is the favorable U.S. economy. The ruling Democratic Party suffered a crushing defeat in the midterm elections last November, but the administration's approval rating is on an upward trend against a backdrop of high stock prices. He sang his own praises in the speech, saying "our economy ... creating jobs at the fastest pace since 1999" and "Our unemployment rate is now lower than it was before the financial crisis."

A maximum tax deduction of $3,000 for middle class and low income families with children. The creation of a system for paid sick leave. Free tuition at community colleges — equivalent to Japan's vocational schools. The policy schedule Mr. Obama spelled out in his address was full of things unacceptable to Republicans, who push for small government.

Mr. Obama asked for "presidential authority" for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Many Republicans support TPP, but it is unclear what will happen if partisanship intensifies.

Because of the focus on U.S. economic recovery, the Obama administration's inward focus has become more pronounced. This statement sums up the administration's fundamental policy for dealing with foreign enemies: "when the first response to a challenge is to send in our military — then we risk getting drawn into unnecessary conflicts." Asking Congress to authorize the use of military force against the extremist group Islamic State is simply a counter-terrorism measure.

The beginning of diplomatic negotiations with Cuba — as illustrated by the agreement with China on measures against global warming — clarified the approach of placing the pivot foot of diplomacy on dialogue. He pushed for the establishment of rules for maritime issues, but did not mention China by name.

The possibility that China will take advantage of this conciliatory attitude to intensify its aggression toward Japan is undeniable. To prevent that from happening, it is necessary to repeatedly encourage the U.S. not to decrease its military presence in East Asia. A solution to the Futenma air base relocation issue in Okinawa is especially essential.


理想論のオバマ教書で米政治は動くか

2015/1/22付

 オバマ米大統領は上下両院とも野党多数になった連邦議会に歩み寄るのか。答えはノーだった。一般教書演説は、富裕層増税による所得格差の是正や、企業の法人税逃れへの批判など支持層向けの理想論が大半を占めた。これで米政治は動くのか。停滞が続くことを前提にした日本外交が必要だ。

 「きょうは議会への提案より、眼前にある重要な事柄に焦点を当てたい」。オバマ氏は演説の冒頭でこう述べた。

 一般教書は本来、大統領が向こう1年間、どんな政策を進めたいかを議会に伝え、必要な法整備を要請するものである。議会は当てにしないと言わんばかりの演説は異例だ。野党の共和党は「オバマの『我が道を行く』路線」と対決姿勢を強めている。

 オバマ氏を強気にさせたのは好調な米経済だ。昨年11月の中間選挙で与党・民主党が大敗したが、株高などを背景に政権支持率はこのところ上向きだ。演説では「雇用は1999年以来の勢い」「失業率は金融危機前の水準」などと自画自賛した。

 中低所得の育児所帯を対象にした最大3000ドルの税額控除。有給の病気休暇制度の創設。日本の専門学校に相当する地域の短大の授業料の無償化。オバマ氏が演説で打ち出した政策メニューは、小さな政府を掲げる共和党が受け入れられないものばかりだ。

 オバマ氏は環太平洋経済連携協定(TPP)交渉の「大統領一任」を求めた。賛成する共和党議員は多いが、党派対立が激化すると、どうなるかは不透明だ。

 米経済再生を重視した結果、オバマ政権の内向き志向はより顕著になった。外敵対処は「最初の反応が軍隊を派遣することだったら不必要な紛争に巻き込まれる」が基本方針。過激派「イスラム国」への武力行使権限の付与を議会に求めたのはあくまでテロ対策だ。

 キューバとの国交交渉の開始、中国との地球温暖化対策での合意などを例示し、外交の軸足を対話に置く姿勢を明確にした。「海事問題のルール確立」は掲げたが、中国を名指しはしなかった。

 こうした融和姿勢に乗じ、中国が日本への攻勢を強める可能性は否定できない。そうさせないためには、東アジアにおける米軍のプレゼンスを低下させないよう繰り返し働きかける必要がある。沖縄の米軍普天間基地の移設問題の解決はとりわけ欠かせない。
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