US Is Suffering from Hegemonic ‘Menopause’

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 26 February 2015
by Guangqian Peng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Darius Vukasinovic. Edited by Bora Mici.
It wasn't all that long ago that both the U.S. Senate and the House Armed Services Committee were engaged in ongoing hearings aimed at reviewing the global safety challenges that the United States was facing. During these meetings, the "Chinese military threat” became the most prominent focal point for their concerns. The once unassailable United States of America was now being told by its leading generals and strategists that they had been ‘awestruck’ at the rate of progress that China had made in modernizing its military. More importantly, they were now beginning to worry that the "aura of fear" surrounding the USA's military superiority was beginning to wane. This fear, aside from being the concern of every U.S. politician who subscribes to the "anyone other than us is different" mentality, really does have some factual basis, for it does appear that the power of the United States has begun to wither.

After the end of the war, the United States entered a golden age of financial prosperity, and it held a veritable capital monopoly across the world of finance. Throughout this golden age, the United States could often rely upon its military might to hold the world hostage and advance by promulgating its financial empire everywhere. At the same time, it could also rely upon a world that ran on the power of the U.S. greenback.

All Things Must Come to an End

Ever since the United States began unwittingly moving its physical economy into the brightly beckoning e-commerce world, the actual substance in the U.S. economy has been growing ever thinner. Although the United States created the world's most unbeatable war machine, in the new era of a nuclear balance of power and mutual economic dependence, it has found that physical warfare is no longer viable, and reliance upon financial might alone is simply an untenable position. The reasons for the decline of American hegemony are not to be found externally, but rather, internally. They developed from the double-edged sword of the USA's financial power: the parasitic nature of its selfish and monopolistic capital enterprise system. The famous U.K. historian Arnold J. Toynbee once said that “empires collapse as the result of foreign expansion and internal distortions within their societies.” The decline of U.S. hegemony stems from engaging in year after year of warfare in the pursuit of strategic resources, the bursting of the virtual economy bubble, and from the way the U.S. approaches its external "challenges."

The Decline of U.S. Hegemony Will Be a Gradual Process

Even though it is in collapse, the United States is still an important player on the world stage. That being said, it doesn't enjoy the mighty lead roles it once occupied. History tells us that on the eve of a mighty empire's collapse, it begins to tilt slightly, but not topple over completely. At this particular point, the empire is at its most vulnerable, its most sensitive stage. Its leadership, especially, begins to become prone to all sorts of paranoid thinking. Compared with its past self, the United States of today is beating its chest more often, and doing so with an ever increasing volume. Its anxious speech, nervousness and faltering confidence are the outward manifestations of its hegemonic menopause. Obama said that the United States “will not be number two,” indicating precisely the USA's pre-existing anxieties that it is possibly already "number two." Throughout this especially sensitive period, the potential for the United States to make rash decisions is greatly increased.

Bear in mind that the U.S. president clearly stated that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty “applies” to China's Diaoyu islands territory; the commander of the Pacific Fleet issued harsh rhetoric toward China over what he considered to be China's "tendencies toward national revanchism," saying “the way China goes about things is dangerous and one-sided,”* and the commanding officer of the U.S. Seventh Fleet asserts that “America welcomes the assistance of Japan's air force in patrolling the South China seas."* The United States has rarely ever issued language as strong and confident as this. We can also see that the United States is still embroiled in its financial woes, and yet, its annual military budget continues to skyrocket. The U.S. is about to enter a new round of elections, and you can be sure that all manner of politicians and interest groups will be out in force, beating their drums, and in general, creating dramas over political hot topics.

When all is said and done, the United States still possesses the world's most powerful war machine. It is a superpower with great influence over world affairs. As soon as the U.S. makes one false step, as soon as it's rate of decline becomes too steep for it to manage, it will be not only a disaster for the United States, but for the rest of the world as well. In short, we must remain exceptionally vigilant of any shifting trends in the USA's behavior. Since U.S. decline is inevitable, a soft fall would be preferable to a hard landing that sends shock waves everywhere. Even then, should there be a hard landing, it would be a small price to pay. Where to go and what to do is, of course, primarily the choice of the USA. That being said, other countries ought to begin considering the decline of the USA and find ways to guide the U.S. to a soft landing.

The author is the assistant secretary to the China National Security Forum.

*Accurately translated, this quote could not be verified.


彭光谦:美国进入霸权更年期

 不久前美国参议院、众议院军事委员会相继举行听证会,审视美国在全球面临的安全挑战,“中国军事威胁”成为频度最高的“主题词”。一向自视无可匹敌的美国,其众多高官和将领现在却纷纷表示对中国军事现代化进展的“震惊”和对美国绝对军事优势丧失的“惶恐”。这里除了美国政客一向“非我族类,其心必异”的心理外,美国实力地位看来也真是大不如前了。
  战后美国金融垄断资本曾一度进入其黄金岁月。它一方面靠武力挟持全世界,维持其金融帝国秩 序,另一方面靠一纸美元操控世界。然而物极必反。美国在虚拟经济领域春风得意时,不知不觉把实体经济都转移出去了,美国经济内瓤一天天空虚起来。美国虽然 打造了世界上无可匹敌的战争机器,但在核恐怖平衡时代和经济相互深度依存时代,军事手段的实际效益大打折扣,金融帝国秩序单靠武力难以为继。
  美国霸权衰落不是外因造成的,而是其金融帝国内在固有矛盾发展的必然结果,是金融垄断资本食利性、寄生性发展的必然结果。英国著名历史学家汤因比说过,“帝国的衰落来自于对外的过度扩张和社会内部扭曲的扩大。”美国霸权的衰落根源于美国连年征战对美国战略资源的过度透支,以及虚拟经济泡沫的破灭,而不是美国想象中的外部“挑战”。
  美国霸权衰落将是一个较长过程。即使衰落了,美国仍将是一个重要世界大国,只是它不能再像 过去那样吆三喝六了。历史告诉我们,在霸权衰落前夕,在要衰落而未完全衰落之际,恰是其最脆弱、最敏感、最容易丧失理智的阶段。今天的美国与过去相比,说 话嗓门越来越高,这正是其内心焦躁、神经过敏、不自信的表现,是霸权更年期综合症的反映。奥巴马说,美国“决不做老二”,恰恰说明美国已焦虑地意识到成为 “老二”的现实可能性已经出现。在这个特殊敏感时刻,美国做出一些非理性反应的概率大大增加。
  联想到美国总统竟声称美日安保条约“适用于”中国领土钓鱼岛;太平洋舰队司令公然用罕见的激烈言辞抨击中国“民族复仇主义倾向”,说“中国做事情的方式是危险的、单方面的”;美国第七舰队司令竟声称“美国欢迎日本将空军巡逻区域扩展至南中国海”,这种荒腔走板的话以前自信满满的时候是不多见的。再看看美国仍陷金融危机之际,今年军事预算却逆势上扬。美国马上又面临新一轮大选,可以预料各种利益集团,各派政治势力将会竟相上演显示政治正确的戏码。
  美国毕竟拥有世界上最大的超级战争机器,毕竟是有国际影响力的超级大国,一旦美国 犯浑,一旦美国霸权的衰落失去控制,对美国自己当然是一场灾难,对全世界也绝不是好事。因此我们要对美国动向特别保持警惕。既然霸权衰落不可避免,软着陆 总比硬着陆少引起一些震荡,少付出一些代价。何去何从,选择权在美国,但尽可能引导美国霸权衰落实现软着陆,也是值得各国认真探索的重要课题。▲(作者是 中国国家安全论坛副秘书长)
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