US Wages Psychological Warfare with Predictions of ‘Russia’s Collapse’

Lately, the U.S. has grown increasingly strident in its prophesying of Russia's decline, its tone reaching a fevered pitch during a recent 10-day period when Russian President Vladimir Putin went "missing." Some analysts, and even several U.S. officials, have repeatedly warned that "Russia's economy is near collapse," "societal unrest in Russia is imminent," "the Putin regime is soon to fall" and so on in a similar fashion. But the Russia of reality is far removed from the picture painted by the American media, and the vast majority of Putin's top advisers are positively brimming with confidence about Russia's developmental prospects. A recent survey further showed that 68 percent of Russians believe that Russia is a great power.

So why are Americans so emphatic in their doomsaying? The first reason is that such an outcome is the subjective wish of the U.S. Some Americans harbor so much hostility toward the Putin regime that they can hardly contain their eagerness to see Russia's economy fail and its society slip into turmoil. Now, as the Russian economy faces difficulties due to Western sanctions, sinking oil prices and a depreciating ruble, these decriers have gained a glimmer of hope and are peddling their theories with renewed vigor.

Next is that the U.S. has chosen to put blinders on. When examining certain issues, some Americans put undue weight upon the slightest traces of evidence conforming to their desired outcome while deliberately ignoring those that do not, a practice that often leads to grave errors in judgment. This was evident with the "missing Putin" rumors, when the U.S. and other Western media indulged in every manner of speculation during a 10-day absence from the public eye for the Russian president. And after the rumors were dashed by reality, the speculation was replaced with bluster about how "such a problem was all due to Russia's lack of transparency."

The third reason is that Americans are overconfident. Some people insist that the U.S. is the world's sole superpower, a master at geopolitical maneuvering and has a robust system of alliances supporting it, so dealing with a Putin regime that has reached the "boiling point of unrest" should be simplicity itself. However, they do not understand clearly the strong self-sufficiency of the Russian economy, the tremendous fortitude of the Russian people or the fact that greater external pressure only engenders greater solidarity among Russians.

One final point worth mentioning is that the U.S. is accustomed to waging psychological warfare and information warfare. The adamant pessimism about Russia's condition is an obvious attempt to rally the pro-Western opposition within Russia and at the same time erode the average Russian's trust and confidence in the Putin regime, thereby throwing the country into chaos. But for a Russian population that remembers how the nation fell into dire straits when following the path laid out for it by the U.S. during the Yeltsin era and remembers even better the independent, autonomous and stable development during Putin's tenure afterward, the efficacy of such psychological and information tactics will be limited. The once-fooled Russian people will not be fooled a second time.

The author is a senior adviser at the China Institute for International Strategic Studies.