Bad Cross-Strait Relations Mean Bad Taiwan-US Relations

This year is Taiwan's presidential election, and a shift of power may occur. Several people are beginning to worry about whether the development of peaceful cross-strait relations will be ruined, and whether positive development can be maintained. There may be no turning back after the election, but there will still be anxiety.

For example, worrying that the cross-strait status quo will continue in the same direction of sheer animosity is not only unhelpful to peace, but also detrimental to the economic development of the people of Taiwan. Also, worrying that the new government will have too many expectations of the U.S., resulting in poor judgment that damages cross-strait peace, is unhelpful to Taiwan’s ability to go global. In fact, in its current position, the U.S. cannot possibly get involved in the cross-strait issue just because of Taiwan — but this unrealistic hope is still on the rise.

What worries people the most is that the new government could incite disturbances and provoke cross-strait opposition to seek political advantage. Who would have thought that mainland China's Taiwan policy would need to consider the will of the Taiwanese people, too? Therefore, we worry that the new government intends to incite cross-strait disturbances, especially between the countries' cyber armies.

Regarding the above-mentioned worry, even if the candidates commit to maintaining cross-strait relations, the worry of facing change still exists. Why is this? Could it be that this change would challenge the cross-strait peace that we have worked so hard to construct?

In the past, the term "triangular relationship" has always been used to describe Taiwan-U.S.-China relations. For instance, when former President Lee Teng-hui put forward his "two-state theory,” it pulled cross-strait relations down to a freezing point, triggering the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis. As its relations with mainland China worsened, Taiwan's relations with the United States inevitably improved. On the other hand, when Taiwan had positive interactions and relations with China, it drifted away from the United States. Therefore, if Taiwan stays away from China, it must draw closer to the United States. I believe that this triangular relationship is an old way of thinking from the Cold War, and there has never been an explanation for the mode of interaction used in the triangle.

We can find an answer by looking closely at the triangular relationship as of 2000, when former President Chen Shui-bian proposed the concept of "one country on each side." When tensions were on the verge of conflict with China, Taiwan had worse relations with the U.S., which even called Taiwan a "troublemaker," and said that Taiwan's self-defense is not the responsibility of the United States.

In contrast, when the Kuomintang took back power, it favored cross-strait relations over diplomacy, working hard to improve them. China and Taiwan continuously signed negotiation agreements, deepened their communication, and promoted each other's peaceful development, and yet earned more approval and assistance from the United States. Taiwan-U.S. relations had never been better. The largest bonus lay in subduing cross-strait antagonism, and more importantly, building systematic cross-strait negotiation mechanisms, resulting in the gradual success of peaceful development.

Several opponents critique to no end that this sacrifice of sovereignty for economic benefit is responsible for the continual disappearance of Taiwan's sovereignty. However, the reality is that if this cross-strait antagonism is gradually resolved, the Republic of China’s sovereignty and dignity will expand instead of shrink. When President Chen was in office, Taiwanese journalists were prevented from leaving and re-entering the World Health Assembly. But then in 2008, a Taiwanese delegation held a public meeting under the leadership of a minister of the Social Welfare and Environmental Hygiene Committee. More importantly, the leaders of China and Taiwan can now face each other equally in an international setting, which is a brand new breakthrough.

The current mode of interaction among Taiwan, the U.S., and China is different from the past triangular relationship of Cold War thinking. Instead, it is such that when cross-strait relations are not their best, Taiwan-U.S. relations will also drift apart; when cross-strait relations shed their antagonism and gradually walk the path of peaceful development, Taiwan-U.S. relations will harmonize as well, and not at all drift apart. Beyond all doubt, this mode of interaction has become a way to peaceful cooperation for mainland China and Taiwan's development. We inevitably need to stimulate our future, so that cross-strait relations will not be easily ruined.

The author of this article is an associate professor in the Political Science Department and General Education Center of Tunghai University.