Signals of Iowa

Published in El Pais
(Brazil) on 4 February 2016
by Editorial (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Fernanda Townrow. Edited by Graeme Stewart-Wilson.
The United States began to choose their future president with the Iowa caucus - during which the citizens voted by raising their arms in residents meetings - a process that will finish in November. Just under 200,000 people voted, sending the first real signal from citizens who believe - about 50 percent of the population - that the United States has left behind its best days.

This feeling of frustration is fuel for characters - such as millionaire Donald Trump - that hijack the Republican Party with populist speeches of simple solutions for complex questions. Both he and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, whose support is based on an aberrant fundamentalism, are more so the consequence than the cause of the Republican’s attempt to get the elites against the ropes. For years, Republicans have been denying everything accomplished by Obama, provoking polarization, blocking Congress and fueling public fear about an uncertain future; but he who sows wind shall reap a storm.

Iowa popped Trump’s bubble; he finished in a humiliating second place behind Cruz, who advocates bombing the Islamic State group. In third place, unexpectedly, was Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who could finally be the Republican nominee - hardline, but moderate if compared to Trump or Cruz - capable of facing Clinton.

Hillary Clinton, in principle the inevitable Democratic candidate, didn’t start well. She came almost even with the insurgent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. But she will recover when the southern states start to vote, and the states with a high number of Hispanics. She is persecuted because of her reckless use of a private server for her emails when she was secretary of state, and she has problems with youngsters and some women who don’t forgive her attitude toward Bill Clinton’s sexual adventures. On Tuesday, in New Hampshire, is round two.


Sinais de Iowa
Os republicanos estão há anos alimentando o medo do futuro

Os Estados Unidos começaram a escolher seu futuro presidente com os caucus de Iowa — nos quais os cidadãos votam com braços erguidos em reuniões de moradores — em um processo que terminará em novembro. Pouco menos de 200.000 pessoas votaram, que enviam os primeiros sinais reais de cidadãos que acreditam — um 50% da população — que os EUA já deixaram para trás seus melhores dias.

Esse sentimento de frustração é o combustível de figuras — como a do milionário Donald Trump — que sequestrou o Partido Republicano com um discurso populista de receitas simples para questões complexas. Tanto ele quanto Ted Cruz, senador do Texas, que se baseia em um fundamentalismo aberrante, são mais consequência do que causa de sua tentativa de colocar as elites contra as cordas. Os republicanos estão há anos negando tudo a Obama, atiçando a polarização, bloqueando o Congresso e alimentando o medo da população em relação a um futuro incerto: quem planta vento, colhe tempestade.

Iowa significou uma espetada na bolha de Trump; ele terminou em um humilhante segundo lugar, depois de Cruz, que defende bombardear o Estado Islâmico. Em terceiro lugar, inesperado, ficou o senador da Flórida, Marco Rubio, que poderia, finalmente, ser o republicano — de linha dura, mas moderado, se comparado a Trump e Cruz — capaz de enfrentar Clinton.

Hillary Clinton, em princípio a candidata democrata inevitável, começou mal ao quase empatar com o insurgente senador por Vermont Bernie Sanders. Mas vai se recuperar quando começarem a votar os estados do sul e aqueles com altas taxas de hispânicos. É perseguida por seu uso imprudente de um servidor privado para enviar seu e-mail quando era Secretária de Estado, e tem problemas com os jovens e algumas mulheres que não perdoam sua atitude em relação às aventuras sexuais de Bill Clinton. Na terça-feira, em New Hampshire, segundo assalto.
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