Another Cold War?
Seventy years ago, on March 5, 1946, Winston Churchill gave his famous speech in Fulton, Missouri. This antagonistic speech toward the USSR is considered a milestone of the start of the Cold War, which lasted around 40 years.
Quite recently, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned against "sliding back into a new Cold War" between Russia and the West in a speech in Munich. Is it possible we've already slid into this war?
Fyodor Lukyanov, chief editor of the journal "Russia in Global Politics":
There is no Cold War today like the one from the second half of the 20th century. Firstly, back then, two superpowers held each other in check, above all with nuclear weapons. Soviet-American relations were the main topic of the day. Everything depended on them. Now our relationship with the Americans, no matter how poor it might be, no longer takes precedence over everything in the whole world. Not only that, it no longer dominates even, for example, in the Middle East.
Secondly, the previous conflict was regulated and, especially after the Cuban missile crisis, followed certain norms. The USSR and the U.S. could compete along the periphery (in Angola, Cambodia, Nicaragua, etc.) without crossing the line. There were no military actions in Europe, and they showed mutual respect. It's impossible to imagine people putting bumper stickers on their cars in the Soviet Union that said "Reagan is a schmuck," or Americans calling Brezhnev a "bloody executioner" and a "nutjob."
Things are different today. There are no clear rules of engagement. A fairly chaotic competition is ongoing in Europe and elsewhere. There is no mutual respect. In this sense, the situation is much worse than before. The unpredictability has increased. Ideally, the rules and limits of engagement should be put in place again. However, it's not clear how to achieve that without mutual respect.
Who is to blame for this new chill? The stronger side is always the one to blame most. In this case, the West is the stronger side. It had more chances to establish normal relations. Alas, it didn't take advantage of these chances. In failing to do so, it showed a dangerous lack of foresight.
Quite recently, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned against "sliding back into a new Cold War" between Russia and the West in a speech in Munich. Is it possible we've already slid into this war?
Fyodor Lukyanov, chief editor of the journal "Russia in Global Politics":
There is no Cold War today like the one from the second half of the 20th century. Firstly, back then, two superpowers held each other in check, above all with nuclear weapons. Soviet-American relations were the main topic of the day. Everything depended on them. Now our relationship with the Americans, no matter how poor it might be, no longer takes precedence over everything in the whole world. Not only that, it no longer dominates even, for example, in the Middle East.
Secondly, the previous conflict was regulated and, especially after the Cuban missile crisis, followed certain norms. The USSR and the U.S. could compete along the periphery (in Angola, Cambodia, Nicaragua, etc.) without crossing the line. There were no military actions in Europe, and they showed mutual respect. It's impossible to imagine people putting bumper stickers on their cars in the Soviet Union that said "Reagan is a schmuck," or Americans calling Brezhnev a "bloody executioner" and a "nutjob."
Things are different today. There are no clear rules of engagement. A fairly chaotic competition is ongoing in Europe and elsewhere. There is no mutual respect. In this sense, the situation is much worse than before. The unpredictability has increased. Ideally, the rules and limits of engagement should be put in place again. However, it's not clear how to achieve that without mutual respect.
Who is to blame for this new chill? The stronger side is always the one to blame most. In this case, the West is the stronger side. It had more chances to establish normal relations. Alas, it didn't take advantage of these chances. In failing to do so, it showed a dangerous lack of foresight.
America, Germany and the West reached out time and again to Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union. Then Putin started his drive to revive the glory of Imperial Russia and now things are becoming unglued for that tortured country. We still want to be friends whenever Russia is ready. 🙂