Can Donald Trump Be Stopped?
Published in Le Devoir
(Canada) on 11 March 2016
by Frédérick Gagnon and Rafael Jacob (link to
original)
Lincoln abolished slavery, Reagan won the Cold War … and Donald Trump alluded to the size of his genitals during a televised debate. The very least that can be said is that the U.S. Republican Party has seen better days. And yet, “The Donald” is still the favorite to win the Republican nomination for the 2016 presidential election. He has won 15 of the 24 caucuses and primaries held so far, and currently enjoys a lead of about 100 delegates in the presidential race. At a time when the pooh-bahs of the Republican Party have their fingers on the panic button, there seem to be fewer and fewer ways of stopping Trump, and the party might need to face the facts: 2016 has not gone according to plan, and the events of this year could put the party in danger, both with respect to the November election and beyond.
Time Is Running Out
From the beginning of the primary season, the way the votes have been divided between the Republican candidates has worked in Trump's favor. “The Donald” has not achieved a majority of over 50 percent of the popular vote in any of the states that have voted so far. Most of his victories were won with less than 40 percent of the total votes cast. To date, about 35 percent of voters have given their support to Trump. More importantly, an ABC News/Washington Post poll released this week shows that Trump would lose a two-man race against Ted Cruz (41 percent versus 54 percent support) or Marco Rubio (45 percent versus 51 percent support).
Although resistance to the Trump bid remains fierce within the Grand Old Party, if that resistance is to be effective, the party urgently needs to unite and organize itself. The Florida and Ohio primaries alone, which will take place on March 15, account for nearly 15 percent of the total delegates needed to clinch the nomination. If Florida Sen. Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich cannibalize each other's votes, Trump could sweep those two states and would have the wind in his sails for the remaining primaries (according to surveys, this is the most likely scenario). On the other hand, if Trump's opponents form a coalition between now and March 15, the GOP could force a "contested" National Convention to be held in July.
’Contested' Convention
The strategy of the Republican Party bigwigs would be to support one of Trump's opponents (Cruz, for example) until the end of the primaries, in the hope of preventing “The Donald” from seducing the 1,237 delegates needed to win in the first round at the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled to take place in Cleveland. This is not impossible because even though Trump is currently winning the race for delegates, Cruz and Rubio combined have more than him. If he fails to gain the support of 1,237 delegates before the convention, Trump would be vulnerable to an alliance set up by the party establishment to bypass him and award the nomination to another candidate. Such a scenario would be without precedent in the modern era of presidential nomination campaigns, which began in 1972, and would cause a huge drama within the GOP, which would then have to deal with the discontent of Trump's supporters in November.
However, the GOP may well have no choice but to resort to this strategy. Trump's style, which is characterized by personal attacks and remarks that are frequently controversial and offensive, particularly regarding members of certain ethnic and religious minorities — and his political positions, which often go against the Republican orthodoxy, be they on taxation, international trade or even foreign policy — are just as much a threat to the cohesion, and even the survival, of the GOP.
Although Republicans would never openly admit it, the election of Clinton to the White House might not actually be worse for the party than a win for Trump in November. Trump's desire to rip up several free trade agreements and close U.S. military bases overseas would lead to bickering between the White House and a Republican Congress, and would force Paul Ryan (leader of the House of Representatives) and Mitch McConnell (Republican Senate majority leader) to continually contradict Trump and go against the wishes of the president. Moreover, the electoral coalition that currently supports Trump is largely made up of less politicized voters, whose loyalties lie first and foremost with a person, rather than with a party. If “The Donald” is the Republican candidate in November, those voters will turn out in huge numbers at the polling stations, and their anger toward the party establishment could cause them not to support other Republican candidates who will be trying to win seats in Congress or other elected positions (state legislators, governors, etc.). For instance, the GOP could lose control of the Senate, as the Democrats would not hesitate to fuel anti-Trump fervor (already noticeable in the country) in an attempt to cause an electoral tsunami.
Consequently, the GOP will try to topple Trump over the coming weeks, even if the situation is far from ideal. Ironically, the other main candidate for the nomination, Sen. Ted Cruz, is also unpopular within the GOP because he has never hesitated to challenge Republican leaders in Congress. In a year when many people said the GOP had a better pool of candidates than the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton might well be the big winner of the Republican caucuses and primaries! In fact, GOP voters are being won over by the candidates against whom she has the best chances of winning in November.
Time Is Running Out
From the beginning of the primary season, the way the votes have been divided between the Republican candidates has worked in Trump's favor. “The Donald” has not achieved a majority of over 50 percent of the popular vote in any of the states that have voted so far. Most of his victories were won with less than 40 percent of the total votes cast. To date, about 35 percent of voters have given their support to Trump. More importantly, an ABC News/Washington Post poll released this week shows that Trump would lose a two-man race against Ted Cruz (41 percent versus 54 percent support) or Marco Rubio (45 percent versus 51 percent support).
Although resistance to the Trump bid remains fierce within the Grand Old Party, if that resistance is to be effective, the party urgently needs to unite and organize itself. The Florida and Ohio primaries alone, which will take place on March 15, account for nearly 15 percent of the total delegates needed to clinch the nomination. If Florida Sen. Rubio and Ohio Gov. John Kasich cannibalize each other's votes, Trump could sweep those two states and would have the wind in his sails for the remaining primaries (according to surveys, this is the most likely scenario). On the other hand, if Trump's opponents form a coalition between now and March 15, the GOP could force a "contested" National Convention to be held in July.
’Contested' Convention
The strategy of the Republican Party bigwigs would be to support one of Trump's opponents (Cruz, for example) until the end of the primaries, in the hope of preventing “The Donald” from seducing the 1,237 delegates needed to win in the first round at the Republican National Convention, which is scheduled to take place in Cleveland. This is not impossible because even though Trump is currently winning the race for delegates, Cruz and Rubio combined have more than him. If he fails to gain the support of 1,237 delegates before the convention, Trump would be vulnerable to an alliance set up by the party establishment to bypass him and award the nomination to another candidate. Such a scenario would be without precedent in the modern era of presidential nomination campaigns, which began in 1972, and would cause a huge drama within the GOP, which would then have to deal with the discontent of Trump's supporters in November.
However, the GOP may well have no choice but to resort to this strategy. Trump's style, which is characterized by personal attacks and remarks that are frequently controversial and offensive, particularly regarding members of certain ethnic and religious minorities — and his political positions, which often go against the Republican orthodoxy, be they on taxation, international trade or even foreign policy — are just as much a threat to the cohesion, and even the survival, of the GOP.
Although Republicans would never openly admit it, the election of Clinton to the White House might not actually be worse for the party than a win for Trump in November. Trump's desire to rip up several free trade agreements and close U.S. military bases overseas would lead to bickering between the White House and a Republican Congress, and would force Paul Ryan (leader of the House of Representatives) and Mitch McConnell (Republican Senate majority leader) to continually contradict Trump and go against the wishes of the president. Moreover, the electoral coalition that currently supports Trump is largely made up of less politicized voters, whose loyalties lie first and foremost with a person, rather than with a party. If “The Donald” is the Republican candidate in November, those voters will turn out in huge numbers at the polling stations, and their anger toward the party establishment could cause them not to support other Republican candidates who will be trying to win seats in Congress or other elected positions (state legislators, governors, etc.). For instance, the GOP could lose control of the Senate, as the Democrats would not hesitate to fuel anti-Trump fervor (already noticeable in the country) in an attempt to cause an electoral tsunami.
Consequently, the GOP will try to topple Trump over the coming weeks, even if the situation is far from ideal. Ironically, the other main candidate for the nomination, Sen. Ted Cruz, is also unpopular within the GOP because he has never hesitated to challenge Republican leaders in Congress. In a year when many people said the GOP had a better pool of candidates than the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton might well be the big winner of the Republican caucuses and primaries! In fact, GOP voters are being won over by the candidates against whom she has the best chances of winning in November.
Next article![]( "Rubio’s Failure")
