Obama’s Power Vacuum

Published in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
(Germany) on 21 April 2016
by Rainer Hermann (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Holly Bickerton. Edited by Bora Mici.
George W. Bush wanted, and failed, to democratize the Arab world, whereas Barack Obama accepts the autocratic regimes in the Middle East. He has invested little political capital in the region, and Saudi Arabia is trying to exploit this in its own way.

President Obama's visit to Saudi Arabia is a clash of two attitudes that shows how much the two allies have drifted apart. Unlike his predecessor George W. Bush, who wanted to bring democracy to the Arab world and failed, Obama accepts the autocratic regimes of the Middle East. Under his leadership, the U.S. has invested little political capital in the region because Obama considers it less and less relevant.

Instead of offering the Gulf monarchies a defense agreement, he has called on them to stop being "free riders” dependent on the U.S. military and to share the Middle East with their archenemy, Iran.

Saudi Arabia's reaction to this is the Salman Doctrine: Riyadh wants to fill the vacuum the U.S. has created in withdrawing and to be the sole hegemonic power in the region.

The Saudis want to lead, but they are practicing a rather erratic and hazardous policy — in Yemen — which doesn't (yet) attest to the trust they demand.


Obamas Machtvakuum

Beim Besuch des amerikanischen Präsidenten Barack Obama in Saudi-Arabien stoßen zwei Haltungen aufeinander, die zeigen, wie sehr sich die beiden Verbündeten auseinandergelebt haben. Anders als sein Vorgänger George W. Bush, der die arabische Welt demokratisieren wollte und dabei scheiterte, akzeptiert Obama die autokratischen Regime des Nahen Ostens. Unter seiner Führung investiert Amerika aber kaum politisches Kapital in die Region, denn Obama hält sie für immer weniger relevant.
Anstatt den Golfmonarchien ein Verteidigungsabkommen anzubieten, fordert er sie auf, nicht länger „Trittbrettfahrer“ des amerikanischen Militärschirms zu sein und sich den Nahen Osten doch mit dem Erzfeind Iran zu teilen.
Saudi-Arabien reagiert auf diese Aufforderung mit der Salman-Doktrin: Riad will nun das Vakuum füllen, das Amerika mit seinem Rückzug schafft, und in der Region die alleinige Hegemonialmacht sein.
Die Saudis wollen führen, praktizieren aber eine erratische und – etwa im Jemen – abenteuerliche Politik, die (noch) nicht das Vertrauen rechtfertigt, das sie einfordern.
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