America Should Not Expect To Outsource North Korea Nuclear Problem to China

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 25 April 2016
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Winnie Xiao. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
According to a foreign source, on April 24 President Obama indicated his desire that China put pressure on North Korea and “create higher quality cooperation” with the United States; Obama accused North Korea of continuing provocation.

On April 23, 2016, North Korea sent out a submarine-launched ballistic missile, or SLBM, known as KN-11. Although South Korea announced that the missile flew for only 30 km (approximately 18.6 miles), which is much shorter than the minimum SLBM range of 300 km (approximately 186 miles), North Korea claimed this test was a “great success.” Nevertheless, this time, North Korea’s SLBM launch caused a great amount of shock. Hydrogen bombs, SLBMs — these “successful experiments” that Pyongyang announces — demonstrate the gradual advancement in North Korea’s military power.

Almost one day later Eastern time, North Korea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ri Su Yong issued a statement that if South Korea and America would halt their annual joint military exercise on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea would be willing to stop its nuclear testing.

Although this is not the first time North Korea has made such a statement, South Korea immediately rejected North Korea’s proposal and called it “absurd.” But there are also many people who believe that such a statement by North Korea represents its loosening stance, and overall it would be better than removing Seoul and the United States from "the face of the map” with a nuclear war.

Clearly, North Korea is putting pressure on the U.S. with two hands; however, the possession of nuclear power brings the entire situation on the Korean Peninsula to an unprecedented impasse since the armistice. Today, it is impossible to tell whether America and South Korea’s pressure or North Korea’s nuclear power possession is the chicken or the egg; in reality, the pace and impact of this vicious cycle are quickly growing and the real danger is getting closer.

Currently, the whole situation seriously lacks steadiness or support to prevent the further exacerbation of conflict. Some fears may actually come true under the mutual provocation happening on both sides. If both parties do not want the worst scenario to occur, they should not waste any important opportunities to restore stability and should avoid contributing more pressure to the situation.

Pyongyang tries to intimidate the bigger power by consistently pressuring the South Korea-America alliance. Therefore, forcing the latter to eventually “surrender” is perhaps not realistic. In truth, Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test has brought more severe sanctions and an unprecedented number of America-Korea joint military exercises. If North Korea conducts a fifth nuclear test, the idea that South Korea and America will “kneel down” would be an impossible outcome.

Once the United Nations Security Council discusses tougher sanctions on North Korea, it will be difficult for China to bend the rules; this should be clear to Pyongyang.

From another perspective, however, America and South Korea’s sanctions and military exercises have already rendered North Korea extremely closed off. If North Korea does not actually use its ultimate power, how many more options does it have left?

In addition, Obama has also called on China to increase its pressure on North Korea. Even if China and North Korea have become enemies, the United States will not challenge the situation. Essentially, America will be outsourcing the nuclear problem to China, when this problem was clearly created by America’s own policy toward North Korea. China’s sanctions against North Korea are merely targeting North Korea’s ability to engineer nuclear weapons; therefore, China will unquestionably stay out of the “suffocation” of North Korean politics. This point is obvious to both America and North Korea.

Chinese people are truly worried about the breakout of war on the Korean Peninsula. We are witnessing the dwindling possibility of resolution but cannot do anything, which is extremely regretful and concerning. This is the healthy state of mind of a greatly responsible government.

However, if the situation does get out of control, China will not be among the first wave of unlucky countries. If America and North Korea are determined to continue this fight, we who do not have good solutions cannot pretend we have no solutions at all, and we cannot offer any peripheral assistance that could be irresponsible. China earnestly tried to settle the problem, but it is not because our endurance in dealing with the deterioration of the situation is lacking.

The tension in the peninsula has resulted in some strategic trends that are harmful to China’s national interests, such as threats by the U.S. and South Korea to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system. Nevertheless, never underestimate China’s ability and determination to fight back at any point. No side should be acting with an extremely selfish attitude; they need to take other parties’ interests into account. Otherwise, we will have to pay a high price for harmful actions against others.


社评:美不应指望将朝核问题外包给中国

据外媒报道,美国总统奥巴马24日表示希望中国就对朝施压与美方“做更高水平的合作”,他指责朝鲜仍在持续进行挑衅性活动。
  朝鲜23日发射了一枚“北极星-1”潜射弹道导弹,虽然韩方称导弹飞行距离只有30公里,远低于潜射弹道导弹的最短射程300公里,但是朝鲜方面宣布此次试验“大获成功”。无论如何,朝鲜的这次潜射导弹试验都引起了相当的震动。氢弹、潜射导弹,这些平壤宣布的“成功试验”显示了朝鲜战略攻击能力在一步步推进。
  差不多时隔一天之后,朝鲜外务相李洙墉于美国东部时间的23日通过美联社发表谈话,表示如果韩美停止每年在朝鲜半岛进行的联合军事演习,朝鲜愿以停止核试验作为回应。
  尽管这不是朝方第一次做这样的表态,韩国方面在第一时间就拒绝了朝方“韩美停军演换朝鲜停核试”的建议,宣称其“荒诞”,但也有很多人认为,朝鲜这样表态毕竟代表了立场松动的一面,总比它说“要从地图上抹去”首尔、同美国打核大战要好得多。
  朝鲜显然在用两手对付美韩的压力,但拥核把整个局势带入朝鲜半岛自停战以来前所未有的僵局。美韩的压力与朝鲜拥核到今天已经分不清哪是鸡哪是蛋,但现实是这一恶性循环的节奏和冲击性都在快速加码,真正的危险正一步步迫近。
  目前整个局势中严重缺乏阻止事态进一步恶化的抓手和支点,一些发狠的威胁和恐吓在相互刺激下有可能变假成真。如果各方都不想最坏的情况发生,就不应浪费每一个有助于重建稳定的征兆和可能性,也应尽量避免向局势加注新的压力。
  平壤试图以小唬大,一直把美韩联盟逼到受不了,迫后者最终做“投降性让步”,大概不切实际。事实是,它的第四次核试验招来了远超之前的严厉制裁和规模空前的美韩联合军演。它如果搞第五次核试验,美韩就会“跪了”,几乎不可思议。
  一旦安理会讨论更严厉的对朝制裁,中国很难网开一面,平壤对此应很清楚。
  然而换个角度说,美韩推动制裁,挥舞军演大棒,已经把朝鲜搞得“内向”的不得了了。只要它们不真动手,还能有多少张牌呢?
  奥巴马又呼吁中国加大对朝鲜施压,从美韩的态度看,如果中朝相互为敌,它们是会愿意的。那样美韩就等于把朝核问题外包给了中国,而这个难题就是美国对朝政策造成的。中国的对朝制裁只会针对朝鲜的核导研发能力,而决不会参与对朝鲜整个国家和政权的窒息,这一点无论美国还是韩国都应十分清楚。
  中国人确实担心朝鲜半岛生战生乱,我们眼看着局势的回旋余地正在耗尽,却无能为力,因而甚是遗憾和忧虑。这是负责任大国的健康心态。
  然而说一千道一万,万一局势失去控制,中国肯定不会在最倒霉的第一波国家中。如果美韩与朝鲜铁了心就这么折腾下去,没什么好办法的我们第一不能装得有办法,第二也不能主动给任何一方的不负责任之举埋单。中国苦口婆心试图促成转圜,并不是因为我们对局势恶化的承受力比别的方面低。
  半岛紧张导致了一些有损中国国家利益的战略动向,比如美韩威胁要部署萨德导弹系统等。但是任何方面都不要低估中国的反制能力和决心。因此各方都不应以极端自私的态度为出发点,而需兼顾其他方面的利益。否则的话,一个劲地发狠,损害其他方面的利益,最终是要付出沉重代价的。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Spain: Trump-Musk: Affair, Breakup and Reconciliation?

Germany: LA Protests: Why Are So Many Mexican Flags Flying in the US?

Venezuela: The Devil in Los Angeles

Taiwan: Taiwan Issue Will Be Harder To Bypass during Future US-China Negotiations

Switzerland: Trump’s Military Contingent in Los Angeles Is Disproportionate and Dangerous

   

Topics

India: What if Trump Has Just Started Another ‘Forever War’?

Russia: Will the US Intervene in an Iran-Israel Conflict? Political Analyst Weighs the Odds*

Cuba: Summit between Wars and Other Disruptions

Germany: Resistance to Trump’s Violence Is Justified

Germany: LA Protests: Why Are So Many Mexican Flags Flying in the US?

Spain: Trump-Musk: Affair, Breakup and Reconciliation?

Switzerland: Trump’s Military Contingent in Los Angeles Is Disproportionate and Dangerous

   

Germany: If You’re Not for Him, You Should Be Afraid*

Related Articles

Taiwan: Taiwan Issue Will Be Harder To Bypass during Future US-China Negotiations

Hong Kong: Amid US Democracy’s Moral Unraveling, Hong Kong’s Role in the Soft Power Struggle

Russia: Trump Is Shielding America*

Hong Kong: The Lessons of World War II: The Real World Importance of Resisting Hegemony

Mexico: The Trump Problem