What If Trump Dropped Out of the Race for the White House?
Published in L'OBS
(France) on 5 August 2016
by Sarah Diffalah (link to original)
(France) on 5 August 2016
by Sarah Diffalah (link to original)
Translated from
by Sophie Thresher.
Edited by Bora Mici.
This hypothesis would be a dream come true for many people. Yet, in spite of the pressure and deluge of criticism from his own party, the Republican candidate has yet to admit defeat.
His own political side is desperate. For the first time in 128 years, Republican students at Harvard will not support the party’s nominee. Army veterans have signed a petition demanding that Republican officers withdraw their support for the presidential candidate. Large Republican investors have turned away from him. But what is even worse is that they have decided to contribute to the campaign of his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, instead. Officials within his team have begun to jump ship, and some of them have insulted him further with declarations that they will be voting for the other side. Barack Obama himself has pleaded for all Republicans to abandon him. There is hardly anyone who publicly supports him, aside from Clint Eastwood, whose support is not without some misgivings. Donald Trump is alone and close to repudiation by his own party.
Over the past few days, the Republican candidate has weathered mistakes and scandals, as the gulf at the center of his side grows larger by the day. His attack on the Muslim parents of a soldier who was killed in Iraq has been the turning point for many who previously remained in the shadows and feared to say what they were thinking aloud. The taboo is broken: Some people hope to see him drop out of the race.
How To Replace Trump?
According to ABC News, Republican officials are considering this scenario in depth, given Donald Trump’s erratic behavior. This was what betters needed to begin to speculate. According to online betting agents Betfair, traders estimate that the Republican Party has a 25.8 percent chance of winning the presidency, but they are only giving a 24.1 percent chance to Donald Trump becoming president. “The difference of 1.7 percent probably reflects the possibility that Mr. Trump drops out and that an alternative Republican wins the White House,” explains The New York Times.
When anonymously surveyed by Politico, 70 percent of its sampling of Republican voters hoped to see Trump abandon his bid and be replaced by someone else, even if they did not see it as likely to happen.
Legally, Trump can resign, but he cannot be forced out. The investiture following the convention is irrevocable. Therefore, there is no way to undo what was done in Cleveland, aside from changing by-laws.
If, by chance, Donald Trump dropped out of the race, the 168 members of the National Republican Committee would have to find a replacement. In their by-laws, the two American parties have foreseen a legal framework of “tickets” in the case of there being a vacancy due to death or resignation.
This has happened previously. Democrats had to choose a new vice president after the 1972 convention when Sen. Tom Eagleton resigned due to press leaks about a serious mental illness he suffered from.
The rules of the Republican Party authorize the National Committee to hold a new convention to invest another candidate, which seems complicated to organize logistically. According to ABC News, citing an expert, Donald Trump should announce his resignation before September in order to allow the party enough time to choose a new candidate without causing a new leadership crisis.
Can Trump Step Down?
This issue is whether or not, due to pressure or his own actions, Trump could step down. His personality makes it seem unlikely that he would do so, with his having shown no signs of fatigue. Donald Trump has been moving along the path as if it were nothing for months, without letting controversy or criticism stop him.
“The election is in November, not August, and the three debates this fall will give the natural performer the chance to turn things around,” warns Time magazine, which does not believe for one second that Trump will drop out. The U.S. publication also believes that the party is not at all interested in forcing him out or letting him leave:
“The GOP has long ago wagered that losing with Trump is better than standing up to him, which is why the #NeverTrump movement at the convention was doomed before it began. The Establishment, for the sake of party unity, strapped itself to the Trump rollercoaster and there’s no way off until the end of the ride.”
Elsewhere, the Republican Party is running the risk of alienating the millions of people who voted for Trump during the primaries, and reinforcing the idea, supported by Trump, that the Grand Old Party no longer represents ordinary Americans and is out of touch with reality.
So, what solution is there for all the Republicans whose frustration is starting to make a lot of noise and shake up the status quo that prevailed up until now? According to NBC, a group of heavy-weight Republicans, including former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani, plan to continue to press the case with Trump to encourage him to toe the line — because the risk for the Republican Party is that of appearing disbanded during the presidential and legislative elections on Nov. 8, while Hillary Clinton enjoys the unconditional support of the entire Democratic team, as well as the exiting president, Barack Obama.
His own political side is desperate. For the first time in 128 years, Republican students at Harvard will not support the party’s nominee. Army veterans have signed a petition demanding that Republican officers withdraw their support for the presidential candidate. Large Republican investors have turned away from him. But what is even worse is that they have decided to contribute to the campaign of his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, instead. Officials within his team have begun to jump ship, and some of them have insulted him further with declarations that they will be voting for the other side. Barack Obama himself has pleaded for all Republicans to abandon him. There is hardly anyone who publicly supports him, aside from Clint Eastwood, whose support is not without some misgivings. Donald Trump is alone and close to repudiation by his own party.
Over the past few days, the Republican candidate has weathered mistakes and scandals, as the gulf at the center of his side grows larger by the day. His attack on the Muslim parents of a soldier who was killed in Iraq has been the turning point for many who previously remained in the shadows and feared to say what they were thinking aloud. The taboo is broken: Some people hope to see him drop out of the race.
How To Replace Trump?
According to ABC News, Republican officials are considering this scenario in depth, given Donald Trump’s erratic behavior. This was what betters needed to begin to speculate. According to online betting agents Betfair, traders estimate that the Republican Party has a 25.8 percent chance of winning the presidency, but they are only giving a 24.1 percent chance to Donald Trump becoming president. “The difference of 1.7 percent probably reflects the possibility that Mr. Trump drops out and that an alternative Republican wins the White House,” explains The New York Times.
When anonymously surveyed by Politico, 70 percent of its sampling of Republican voters hoped to see Trump abandon his bid and be replaced by someone else, even if they did not see it as likely to happen.
Legally, Trump can resign, but he cannot be forced out. The investiture following the convention is irrevocable. Therefore, there is no way to undo what was done in Cleveland, aside from changing by-laws.
If, by chance, Donald Trump dropped out of the race, the 168 members of the National Republican Committee would have to find a replacement. In their by-laws, the two American parties have foreseen a legal framework of “tickets” in the case of there being a vacancy due to death or resignation.
This has happened previously. Democrats had to choose a new vice president after the 1972 convention when Sen. Tom Eagleton resigned due to press leaks about a serious mental illness he suffered from.
The rules of the Republican Party authorize the National Committee to hold a new convention to invest another candidate, which seems complicated to organize logistically. According to ABC News, citing an expert, Donald Trump should announce his resignation before September in order to allow the party enough time to choose a new candidate without causing a new leadership crisis.
Can Trump Step Down?
This issue is whether or not, due to pressure or his own actions, Trump could step down. His personality makes it seem unlikely that he would do so, with his having shown no signs of fatigue. Donald Trump has been moving along the path as if it were nothing for months, without letting controversy or criticism stop him.
“The election is in November, not August, and the three debates this fall will give the natural performer the chance to turn things around,” warns Time magazine, which does not believe for one second that Trump will drop out. The U.S. publication also believes that the party is not at all interested in forcing him out or letting him leave:
“The GOP has long ago wagered that losing with Trump is better than standing up to him, which is why the #NeverTrump movement at the convention was doomed before it began. The Establishment, for the sake of party unity, strapped itself to the Trump rollercoaster and there’s no way off until the end of the ride.”
Elsewhere, the Republican Party is running the risk of alienating the millions of people who voted for Trump during the primaries, and reinforcing the idea, supported by Trump, that the Grand Old Party no longer represents ordinary Americans and is out of touch with reality.
So, what solution is there for all the Republicans whose frustration is starting to make a lot of noise and shake up the status quo that prevailed up until now? According to NBC, a group of heavy-weight Republicans, including former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani, plan to continue to press the case with Trump to encourage him to toe the line — because the risk for the Republican Party is that of appearing disbanded during the presidential and legislative elections on Nov. 8, while Hillary Clinton enjoys the unconditional support of the entire Democratic team, as well as the exiting president, Barack Obama.
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