Making His Next Move Will Be the Difficult Part

Published in Público
(Portugal) on 8 April 2017
by Nuno Pacheco (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Conor Lane. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
What was it that Trump wanted to gain by punishing Assad? To intervene decisively in the Syrian conflict or merely to make a show of strength and nothing else?

For the first time since being elected, Donald Trump has pulled the trigger. For doing so, he was generally applauded — or at the very least people understood why he did it. The United Kingdom, Canada, France, Australia, Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia each gave their total support, while countries like Portugal, Spain and Italy adopted positions that were less enthusiastic but generally understanding of the U.S. president’s decision.

What was it that Trump did? He decided to attack a Syrian military base with 59 Tomahawk missiles, a base from which planes had earlier taken off to drop chemical weapons on a city in Idlib province.

This isn’t the first time the Assad regime has resorted to using chemical weapons over the course of the bloody conflict his country has been embroiled in for years, and from which it has emerged, all the while, with impunity despite protestations. In the face of only a few voices of dissent — namely Damascus, Moscow and Tehran — Trump showed that such actions would no longer go unpunished.

Of course, he didn’t just do it because of Syria. He wanted to show that he has the power to retaliate, and that he could repeat such actions whenever it is opportune to do so. In so doing, he was taking aim at Iran and North Korea, as well. Assad, for his part, as someone accustomed to pushing past “lines in the sand” (see the case of the much-tormented Aleppo), was not expecting an attack. It’s for this reason Damascus accused the United States of “irresponsible and senseless” behavior, while Moscow, allied to Assad in the Syria dispute, called it an “act of aggression.”

By taking this action, Trump built up points for himself in the international arena, even as he continues to be hampered by difficulties on the domestic front. But what was his objective? To intervene decisively in the Syrian conflict to facilitate Assad’s downfall? Or merely to make a show of strength and nothing else?

It is important to remember that in 2013, when the Obama administration was itself considering whether to punish Assad for using chemical weapons, public surveys found that more than two-thirds of Americans expressed opposition to such a course of action.

The United States might want to resolve the Syrian issue, at least in theory, but only so long as it can avoid direct involvement.

Trump pulled the trigger, to be sure, but this was seemingly the “easy” part. What will be more difficult is making the next move in bringing about a solution to the Syrian conflict — one that avoids repeating past mistakes and also precludes a calamitous and equally tormenting post-war situation for the Syrian people.

It’s far from comforting that it’s Trump who holds the reins on such an intricate problem, but perhaps it will be from this momentary shudder that a political solution arises, one that not only involves Russia but also brings an end to the Syrian bloodbath.


O mais difícil é acertar no passo seguinte

8 de Abril de 2017

Nuno Pacheco

"O que quis Trump ao punir Assad? Intervir de forma decisiva na guerra síria, ou apenas mostrar força e ficar por aqui?"

Pela primeira vez desde que foi eleito, Donald Trump premiu um botão bélico. E foi genericamente aplaudido ou, no mínimo, “compreendido”. Reino Unido, Canadá, França, Austrália, Israel, Turquia, Arábia Saudita, deram-lhe total apoio, enquanto países como Portugal, Espanha ou Itália adoptaram uma posição menos entusiástica mas em geral compreensiva para com a decisão do presidente dos EUA.

O que fez Trump? Decidiu um ataque com 59 mísseis Tomahawk contra a base militar síria de onde terão partido aviões que bombardearam com armas químicas uma cidade na província de Idlib. Não é a primeira vez que o regime de Bashar Al-Assad recorre a armas químicas no sangrento conflito que mantém o seu país a ferro e fogo há anos e sempre saiu impune, apesar dos protestos. O que Trump agora fez, com raras vozes a condená-lo (Damasco, Moscovo e o Irão), foi mostrar que esse tipo de actos não pode ficar impune. Não o fez só por causa da Síria, naturalmente, fê-lo para mostrar que tem um poder retaliatório que usará quando achar oportuno, e isso visa igualmente o Irão ou a Coreia do Norte. Assad, que está habituado a ultrapassar limites (veja-se o caso da tão martirizada Alepo), não esperava tal ataque. E por isso Damasco acusou os EUA de um comportamento “irresponsável e insensato”, enquanto Moscovo, aliado de Assad na contenda síria, falou em “acto de agressão.” Ora Trump, que na frente interna continua a lidar com dificuldades, somou com este seu acto pontos na arena internacional. Com que objectivo? Intervir de forma decisiva na guerra síria, facilitando a queda de Assad? Ou apenas mostrar força e ficar por aqui?

É bom recordar que, em 2013, quando a administração Obama ponderou a hipótese de punir Assad pelo uso de armas químicas, mais de dois terços dos americanos expressaram (em inquéritos públicos) a sua oposição a tal acto. Os Estados Unidos gostariam de resolver o problema sírio, pelo menos em teoria, mas sem nele se envolverem directamente. Trump carregou no botão, é certo, mas isso é aparentemente o mais “fácil”. O difícil é acertar no passo seguinte e esse terá de envolver uma solução para a Síria que não repita erros do passado e que impeça um pós-guerra calamitoso e igualmente dilacerante para o povo sírio.

Não é tranquilizador que seja Trump a ter na mão as rédeas de tão intrincado problema, mas talvez deste “calafrio” momentâneo nasça uma solução política que envolva a Rússia e estanque a sangria síria.
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Mexico: The Kirk Paradox

Turkey: Cost of Trumping in the 21st Century: Tested in Europe, Isolated on Gaza

Austria: The Showdown in Washington Is about More Than the Budget

South Korea: Trump: ‘I’ve Never Walked into a Room So Silent Before’

Germany: A Sensible Plan for Gaza*

Topics

South Korea: Trump: ‘I’ve Never Walked into a Room So Silent Before’

Iran: US Strategy on Iran: From Sanctions to Perception Warfare

Germany: A Sensible Plan for Gaza*

Germany: Trump’s Peace Plan: Too Good To Be True

Mexico: The Kirk Paradox

Turkey: Cost of Trumping in the 21st Century: Tested in Europe, Isolated on Gaza

Austria: The Showdown in Washington Is about More Than the Budget

Singapore: Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan – Some Cause for Optimism, but Will It Be Enough?

Related Articles

South Korea: Trump: ‘I’ve Never Walked into a Room So Silent Before’

Iran: US Strategy on Iran: From Sanctions to Perception Warfare

Germany: A Sensible Plan for Gaza*

Germany: Trump’s Peace Plan: Too Good To Be True

Turkey: Cost of Trumping in the 21st Century: Tested in Europe, Isolated on Gaza